The psychology of moderate prediction : I. Experience with multiple determination

In the experiments reported here, individuals with experience in a multivariate prediction setting showed considerable moderation of subsequent univariate predictions, compared to those without such experience. We show that such moderation of prediction does not result from an abstract rule of regression to the mean; rather, it can be explained by the named error model. According to this model, missing predictors are treated as an error term, with their unknown values replaced by central tendencies. Experiment 1 demonstrates the phenomenon of moderation following multivariate experience and explores its generalization to novel predictors. Moderation occurs even for a perfectly valid predictor, contrary to normative application of a regression strategy. Experiment 2 shows that the phenomenon depends on lack of correlation among the multivariate predictors. This accords with the named error model, which asserts that if missing predictors are perceived to be correlated with the available predictor, their unknown values are replaced by extreme values rather than by central tendencies. Experiment 3 shows that mere exposure to additional predictors has no effect; experience in which multiple predictors are used to make numerical predictions seems to be necessary in order to obtain subsequent moderation. In Experiment 4, feedback is introduced. Moderation of prediction results even without prior multivariate experience. However, multivariate experience produces the moderation effect much more quickly.     

Primate learning tasks reveal strong impairments in patients with presenile or senile dementia of the Alzheimer type

Eight subjects with the likely diagnosis of presenile or senile dementia of the Alzheimer type were tested on two frequently used primate learning tasks: a concurrent object discrimination task and a delayed non-match-to-sample task. In addition, various tests for cognitive, mnemonic, perceptual, and language functions were applied. The results suggest a severe decline of the Alzheimer subjects in all measures when compared with 10 control subjects matched for age, gender, and education. The two animal learning tasks revealed strong impairments, thus demonstrating a high sensitivity for the detection and assessment of human amnesic disorders. Implications of these findings for human neuropsychological, and especially comparative neuropsychological, research are discussed.     

Perceived Risk of AIDS: Assessing the Behavioral and Psychosocial Consequences in a Cohort of Gay Men1

Longitudinal analyses reported here explored the relationship between a perceived sense of being at risk for AIDS and a variety of behavioral, social, and psychological consequences. Data were obtained from a cohort of 637 homosexual men living in Chicago, who are participating in a psychosocial study and have completed two waves of data collection. Their perceptions of risk were quantified using both an absolute and a comparative measure; these were combined into a risk index, scored from one to nine (x?= 3.91; SD= 1.64). Univariate analyses demonstrated that level of risk was related to several measures of subsequent behavioral risk reduction. However, after adjustment for sociodemographic variables, initial behavior, and other components of a model predicting behavior change, this was no longer true. Of the 12 behavioral outcomes assessed, only one was related to risk after appropriate adjustment, and this relationship was negative. Other longitudinal analyses examined the impact of a sense of risk on measures of psychosocial functioning which have been theoretically linked to health behaviors and to measures of psychological/ social distress. These demonstrated a range of potentially adverse consequences for those who perceived themselves to be at greater risk for AIDS, including increased barriers to behavioral change, obsessive/compulsive behavior, social role impairment, and more intrusive worries and concerns about AIDS. Taken together, these results suggest that there is little or no observable benefit to an increased sense of risk, but that such a sense subsequently leads to distress and dysfunction in a variety of realms. The implications of these findings for development of policy concerning antibody testing of at-risk populations is discussed.     

Event-based prospective memory for poorly attended events

In the most frequently used paradigm for studying event-based prospective memory (PM, Einstein & McDaniel, 1990), participants perform an ongoing task and are asked to perform an additional task when a particular stimulus (the PM cue) is presented. In this study three experiments examined how PM performance depends on stimulus selection, which is a major process involved in executive task control according to current theorizing. Participants made semantic judgments about a target word accompanied by two nontargets (distracters). The target was indicated by its spatial position (Experiment 1) or color (Experiment 2). The findings indicated that PM performance was much poorer when the PM cue was irrelevant to the ongoing task, in spite of the fact that nontargets were processed semantically as shown in Experiment 3.     

Effects of orthographic consistency, frequency, and letter knowledge on children's vowel spelling development

This study investigated children's sensitivity to spelling consistency, and lexical and sublexical (rime) frequency, and their use of explicitly learned canonical vowel graphemes in the early stages of learning to spell. Vowel spellings produced by 78 British children at the end of reception year (mean age 5 years, 7 months) and 6 months later in mid-Year 1 were assessed. Regression analyses revealed that, at both test times, knowledge of sound-letter correspondences influenced spelling performance; however, unconditional consistency of vowel spellings affected children's spelling most strongly, over and above additional effects of word and rime frequency and the complexity of the target vowel grapheme. The effect of conditional consistency of vowel spellings given coda contexts was not significant. Thus, young children are sensitive to various statistical properties of the orthography from the earliest phases of spelling development and, in particular, to the unconditional consistency of the vowel spelling pattern.     

Brighter noise: Sensory enhancement of perceived loudness by concurrent visual stimulation

Two experiments investigated the effect of concurrently presented light on the perceived loudness of a low-level burst of white noise. The results suggest two points. First, white noise presented with light tends to be rated as louder than noise presented alone. Second, the enhancement in loudness judgments is resistant to two experimental manipulations: varying the probability that light accompanies sound and shifting from a rating method to a forced choice comparison. Both manipulations were previously shown to eliminate a complementary noise-induced enhancement in ratings of brightness. Whereas noise-induced enhancement of brightness seems to reflect a late-stage decisional process, such as a response bias, the present results suggest that light-induced enhancement of loudness may reflect an early-stage sensory interaction.     

Recalibrating the auditory system: a speed-accuracy analysis of intensity perception

Recalibration in loudness perception refers to an adaptation-like change in relative responsiveness to auditory signals of different sound frequencies. Listening to relatively weak tones at one frequency and stronger tones at another makes the latter appear softer. The authors showed recalibration not only in magnitude estimates of loudness but also in simple response times (RTs) and choice RTs. RTs depend on sound intensity and may serve as surrogates for loudness. Most important, the speeded classification paradigm also provided measures of errors. RTs and errors can serve jointly to distinguish changes in sensitivity from changes in response criterion. The changes in choice RT under different recalibrating conditions were not accompanied by changes in error rates predicted by the speed-accuracy tade-off. These results lend support to the hypothesis that loudness recalibration does not result from shifting decisional criteria but instead reflects a change in the underlying representation of auditory intensity.     

Konzeptualisierung in inkrementell-integrativer Sprachverarbeitung

Conceptualization in incremental-integrative\hb language processing Summary. Language is a versatile instrument in co-operatively solving a construction task. In order to understand instructions given during such a task, objects have to be identified and the type of action to be performed has to be determined. The experiments presented show that the way in which objects and actions are conceptualized depends on the linguistic and the non-linguistic, visually available context. Both kinds of information are processed incrementally in an integrative way. The impact of relevant factors, such as the specificity of verbs and object namings, object properties such as color, size, location and the dynamically determined class to which the object belongs was studied. Conclusions for models of language understanding and language production are drawn and requirements for a grammatical formalism suitable for incremental and integrative processing are formulated. Zusammenfassung. Sprache ist ein wichtiges Instrument bei der kooperativen Lösung einer Konstruktionsaufgabe. Zum Verstehen von Handlungsanweisungen im Rahmen dieser Aufgabe müssen Objekte identifiziert und die Art der Handlung erkannt werden. Es werden empirische Untersuchungen vorgestellt, die zeigen, daß die Konzeptualisierung der Objekte und Handlungen vom sprachlichen und nichtsprachlichen, visuell verfügbaren Kontext abhängt. Beide Arten von Kontextinformation werden inkrementell und integrativ verarbeitet. Dazu wurde der Einfluß einzelner Faktoren wie die Spezifität von Verben und Objektbezeichnungen, Objekteigenschaften wie Farbe, Größe und Position sowie die dynamisch zugewiesene Objektklasse und die Wortstellung der benutzten Sprache untersucht. Es werden Folgerungen für die Modellierung von beiden Richtungen der Sprachverarbeitung, Rezeption und Produktion, gezogen und Anforderungen an einen Grammatikformalismus zur inkrementell-integrativen Satzverarbeitung dargestellt.