HOW TO PREDICT FUTURE DURATION FROM PRESENT AGE

The physicist J. Richard Gott has given an argument which, if good, allows one to make accurate predictions for the future longevity of a process, based solely on its present age. We show that there are problems with some of the details of Gott's argument, but we defend the core thesis: in many circumstances, the greater the present age of a process, the more likely a longer future duration.     

On the Metaphysics of Linguistics

Mind–body dualism has rarely been an issue in the generative study of mind; Chomsky himself has long claimed it to be incoherent and unformulable. We first present and defend this negative argument but then suggest that the generative enterprise may license a rather novel and internalist view of the mind and its place in nature, different from all of, (i) the commonly assumed functionalist metaphysics of generative linguistics, (ii) physicalism, and (iii) Chomsky’s negative stance. Our argument departs from the empirical observation that the linguistic mind gives rise to hierarchies of semantic complexity that we argue (only) follow from constraints of an essentially mathematical kind. We assume that the faculty of language tightly correlates with the mathematical capacity both formally and in evolution, the latter plausibly arising as an abstraction from the former, as a kind of specialized output. On this basis, and since the semantic hierarchies in question are mirrored in the syntactic complexity of the expression involved, we posit the existence of a higher-dimensional syntax structured on the model of the hierarchy of numbers, in order to explain the semantic facts in question. If so, syntax does not have a physicalist interpretation any more than the hierarchy of number-theoretic spaces does.     

The effects of intergroup comparison on the polarization of opinions

This study investigates the expression of attitudes by individuals within the context of groups. A link is made between two theoretical areas: that of intergroup relations and that of the effects of group interaction on the expression of opinions. It is argued that individuals in groups adopt more polarized attitudes to achieve a more positively distinct group identity, and to afford themselves identification with that group. Subjects individually expressed their opinion on an issue, while the salience of group membership was varied by evoking the identity of an alternative group which held opposed opinions on the issue. When their own group identity was more salient, subjects tended to express their opinions in a more polarized manner, and in a manner more in keeping with the presumed view of their group. Also, they attributed to the other group attitudes that were more polarized and more in keeping with their presumed view of the issue.     

Women and divorce in France

Improving the situation of women includes more than simply updating laws to correspond to the modern woman's aspirations. It is just as important to bring about changes in attitudes. Understanding and acceptance of equality must be fostered through persuasion and logical argument in order to dispel traditional misconceptions. This paper reviews the history and current status of women and divorce in France.This article has been made available to the journal through the kindness of the French Embassy, Press and Information Division. The editor would like especially to thank Andre Baeyens, Director of the Press and Information Division, French Embassy, New York City.     

Factor Structure of the Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale in Patients Diagnosed with Anxiety Disorders

The Illness Intrusiveness Rating Scale (IIRS) is a measure designed to assess the impact of illness on various domains of functioning (G. M. Devins, 1994). In anxiety disordered patients, illness intrusiveness ratings are higher than those of chronically ill medical patients, suggesting that the IIRS may have a different underlying structure in a sample of individuals with anxiety disorders. To examine this possibility, IIRS items were submitted to an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis in 2 samples (total N = 294). These solutions were compared to solutions in chronically ill populations from a previous study. In the exploratory analysis, both a one-factor and a three-factor solution were identified, accounting for 42 and 61% of the variance, respectively. Confirmatory analyses showed adequate similarity between the three-factor structure of the IIRS from a medically ill population and the current three-factor structure, suggesting that elevated IIRS scores in anxiety disordered samples cannot be explained simply by a different structure of the instrument.     

Cognitive–Behavioral-Interpersonal Scenarios: Interformulator Reliability and Convergent Validity

Although a clinical case formulation can help focus treatment, little is known about the reliability and convergent validity of independently generated, cognitive–behavioral or cognitive–interpersonal formulations. Using videotapes of a semi-structured interview, pairs of clinicians independently formulated 2–3 cognitive–behavioral–interpersonal scenarios (CBISs) on each of 4 women with mood or comorbid mood and anxiety disorders. Ten licensed psychologists then rated each CBIS on 15 dimensions involving cognition, affect, symptoms, and interpersonal functioning. Reliability of the mean ratings (aggregated over the 10 raters) was >.83 for all dimensions. The set of CBISs formulated by a clinician for a patient generally demonstrated good convergent (same patient/different formulator) and discriminant (different patient/same or different formulator) validity on three factor-analytically derived general dimensions of depression, anxiety, and interpersonal functioning. Within each of three patients, pairs of formulators generally agreed on the situational components of the CBISs and demonstrated adequate to very good convergent validity of corresponding CBIS content. These results contribute to accumulating evidence for the reliability and validity of clinical scenarios as an idiographic, situation-level case formulation. Such formulations can help identify multiple cognitive, behavioral, or interpersonal intervention points in the causal chain leading to distress or dysfunction.