Information-gathering strategies in hypothesis-testing

Three experiments were conducted to investigate the informational factors affecting the kinds of questions people ask for testing a hypothesis about another's personality. In Experiment 1, subjects formulated by themselves questions to test either the hypothesis that the interviewee is polite or the hypothesis that he is impolite. The boundary of the hypothesis was set either at an extreme or at an intermediate point on the trait dimension. Experiment 2 also varied the location of the boundary, but the hypotheses concerned extroversion-introversion and subjects chose questions from a predetermined list of questions that asked either about extroverted features or introverted features and that were either low or high in diagnostic value. Both studies found that subjects preferred to ask about features that are consistent with the hypothesis only when the boundary was extreme. In contrast, diagnostic features were preferred in all conditions. Experiment 3 showed that subjects' judgment of the diagnosticity of the various kinds of questions for discriminating at different boundaries paralleled subjects' preferences among these questions. These results were interpreted as providing support for the diagnostic strategy in social information gathering.     

Inclusive and exclusive modes of thinking: Studies of prediction, preference, and social perception during parliamentary elections

The 1999 Israeli multi-party parliamentary election was used for studying the effects of inclusive and exclusive modes of thinking. In three experiments, we tested a theoretical framework whose major elements are the justification process, a distinction between middling and clearcut options, and the use of inclusion and exclusion threshold criteria. In Studies 1-2, respondents were asked to predict either of which parties would win seats in the parliament (inclusion) or which parties would fail to win seats in the parliament (exclusion). In Study 2, respondents were also asked to use inclusive or exclusive modes to indicate their preferences and in Study 3, they were asked to make either inclusive or exclusive judgments about the platforms of two extreme political parties. We found consistent discrepancies between the outcomes of inclusion and exclusion processes, such that choice sets generated in exclusion were larger than those generated in inclusion. A second major finding was the option effect, namely, the discrepancies between the two modes of thinking were larger for middling than for clearcut options. The third main finding was an expertise effect: the less knowledgeable respondents exhibited greater discrepancies than did the more knowledgeable ones. Our theoretical framework accounts for the inclusion-exclusion discrepancy, the option effect, and the expertise effect. We discuss the implications of these findings for judgment and choice in social settings and also for the understanding of question-form effects in opinion surveys—in particular, the allow-forbid effect.     

Nonconscious goal pursuit in novel environments: the case of implicit learning

Is nonconscious goal pursuit useful in novel environments? The prevalent view of automaticity and control implies that an unconscious mode of goal pursuit can only reproduce formerly learned actions, and therefore that its usefulness in novel environments is very limited. Our results demonstrate that this conclusion is not always warranted, as nonconscious goal pursuit facilitated participants' learning of the structure of completely novel environments. Specifically, two experiments, using markedly different implicit-learning paradigms, demonstrated facilitation of implicit learning when the goal of achievement was primed. We propose that nonconscious goal pursuit can facilitate not only reproductive operations, but also productive ones, and that implicit learning is sensitive to the organism's nonconscious goals.     

The Effect of Construal Level on Subjective Probability Estimates

ABSTRACT— In a series of studies, we examined novel predictions drawn from a conceptualization of probability as psychological distance. Manipulating construal level in a number of different ways and examining a variety of probability judgments, we found that participants led to adopt a high-level-construal mind-set made lower probability assessments than did those led to adopt a low-level-construal mind-set. Moreover, this occurred even when construal level was manipulated in a context separate from the judgment task and the manipulation was unrelated in content to the events being judged. These findings suggest that broad processing variables can exert a widespread influence on probability judgment.     

Examining the core: Relations among reading curricula, poverty, and first through third grade reading achievement

Policy changes at the federal and state level are endeavoring to improve student achievement at schools serving children from lower-SES homes. One important strategy is the focus on using evidence-based core reading curricula to provide a consistent framework for instruction across schools. However, rarely have these curricula undergone rigorous comparative testing. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare the effects of six core reading curricula on oral reading fluency growth, while appraising whether these effects differ by grade level and for children living in lower socioeconomic (SES) households. Over 30,000 students in first through third grade Florida Reading First classrooms comprise this academically and economically diverse cross-sectional. Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used to model latent growth curves for students' reading fluency scores over the school year. Growth curves revealed differences across curricula as well as between students of lower and higher SES, suggesting that reading fluency growth trajectories for curricula varied depending on student SES and grade level. Findings indicate that while there are similarities among curricula, they sometimes differ in their ability to promote reading skill growth. Differences by grade level and SES were also detected. However, many of these differences were small. Implications for the use of curriculum as a conduit for improving reading instruction are discussed.     

Inferring accuracy for judges and items: Choice of unit of analysis reverses the conclusions

This study explores the relationship between the precision and the accuracy of forecasts using either judge or item as the unit of analysis. Participants in five experiments answered general-knowledge questions by indicating intervals that were likely to include the correct answer. Results indicate that the precision of an interval estimate is not a straightforward cue to the likelihood that such an interval includes the truth (hit rate). Whereas judges who state more precise estimates (i.e. who provide narrower interval estimates) have lower hit rates, questions for which the average judgment is more precise have higher hit rates. Thus, the relation between precision and accuracy depends on whether one ‘slices’ the data by judge or by question. We offer an explanation for this seemingly paradoxical effect and implement it as a computer simulation to demonstrate its validity. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automatic processing of psychological distance: evidence from a Stroop task

A picture-word version of the Stroop task was used to test the automatic activation of psychological distance by words carrying various senses of psychological distance: temporal (tomorrow, in a year), social (friend, enemy), and hypotheticality (sure, maybe). The pictures implied depth, with the words appearing relatively close to or distant from the observer. The participants classified the spatial distance of words faster when the word's implicit psychological distance matched its spatial distance (e.g., a geographically close word was classified faster when it was "friend" than when it was "enemy"). The findings are consistent with the idea that psychological distance is accessed automatically, even when it is not directly related to people's current goals, and suggest that psychological distance is an important dimension of meaning, common to spatial distance, temporal distance, social distance, and hypotheticality.     

How people cope with uncertainty due to chance or deception

In making social judgments people process effects caused by humans differently from effects caused by non-human agencies. We assume that when they have to predict outcomes that are attributed to non-human causes, people acknowledge their ignorance and try to focus on what is most diagnostic. However, when events are attributed to human agency, they believe that nothing is arbitrary and that one can understand the decision situation well enough to eliminate error. If so, then people should behave differently when an uncertainty is attributed to chance (a non-human agency) or to deception (a human agency). We tested this prediction using the probability-matching paradigm and found reasonable support for our analysis in four experiments. Individuals who attributed uncertainty to deception were less likely to adopt the optimal rule-based strategy than those who attributed it to chance. Indeed, only when the former were prevented from thinking about and elaborating the outcomes (the high-interference condition in Experiment 3) was their performance comparable to the level of individuals in the chance condition.     

The effect of level of construal on the temporal distance of activity enactment

A series of four studies demonstrates that, across different operationalizations of level of construal, different types of activities, and for both the self and another person as targets, construing activities in high-level terms fosters perception of the more distal future as appropriate for their enactment. Specifically, the studies show that thinking about superordinate “why” (rather than subordinate “how”) aspects of actions, about the implications of actions for one’s personality (rather than the objects that would be used in performing the action), and about abstract (rather than concrete) aspects of actions leads people to expect the actions to be performed in the more distant future. These results suggest that the association of level of construal and time perspective is bi-directional, in that time perspective affects level of construal and, in addition, level of construal affects time perspective.     

The Effect of Motor-Mental Preperformance Routines on Motor Performance in Novice Learners

Two sequential studies were conducted to test the notion that preperformance routines (PPRs) positively affect motor performance. The first study consisted of observations and interviews with 115 elite athletes to explore crucial time periods and body positions inherent in expert preparation for performing a golf putt, tennis serve, volleyball serve, and basketball free throw. In the second study, we taught these features of PPR to novice performers: 240 male and female high school students were assigned to two motor-mental PPR, and one control condition. Findings revealed that PPR enhances motor performance and can be implemented at an early stage of learning.