为什么归纳逻辑需要所罗门诺夫先验?(英文)

二十世纪五十年代,卡尔纳普发展了归纳逻辑,他把概率看作一种证据对假设对"确证度";二十世纪六十年代,所罗门诺夫用通用归纳方法进行预测。为了增强归纳逻辑的归纳预测能力以及扩展所罗门诺夫通用归纳方法的表达力,本文整合二者。本文首先将所罗门诺夫先验概率的思想引入归纳逻辑中,在这个框架下,证明一阶逻辑版本的所罗门诺夫完全性定理,然后比较二者的优略。在卡尔纳普的归纳逻辑中,不管正面证据有多少,对像"所有乌鸦都是黑的"这种全称句的支持度最终都为零,而在用所罗门诺夫先验改造的归纳逻辑中,可以证明,在任何可计算的世界中,"所有乌鸦都是黑的"可以得到确证,只要在那些世界上真的所有乌鸦都是黑的。在所罗门诺夫的模型中,要证明完全性定理需要记录所有的过去信息,在修改后的归纳逻辑中,我们可以只关注某种具体的模式而忽略其它无关信息并证明类似的收敛定理。我们甚至可以不用记录所有的相关信息而采用随机抽样的方法建立合理的信念。     

Effects of cementite morphology on short-fatigue-crack propagation in binary Fe–C steel

The effects of cementite morphology on short-fatigue-crack propagation were investigated by subjecting smooth steel specimens to rotating-bending fatigue tests. Intergranular and transgranular cementite precipitation steels free of other phases were prepared through heat treatments. In the intergranular cementite precipitation steel, short-fatigue-crack propagation was decelerated at the grain boundaries, and accelerated in the grain interiors. In contrast, the transgranular precipitation steel showed the deceleration of the crack propagation in the grain interiors but not in the vicinity of the grain boundaries.     

The Cognitive Social Network in Dreams: Transitivity,Assortativity, and Giant Component Proportion Are Monotonic

For five individuals, a social network was constructed from a series of his or her dreams. Three important network measures were calculated for each network: transitivity, assortativity, and giant component proportion. These were monotonically related; over the five networks as transitivity increased, assortativity increased and giant component proportion decreased. The relations indicate that characters appear in dreams systematically. Systematicity likely arises from the dreamer's memory of people and their relations, which is from the dreamer's cognitive social network. But the dream social network is not a copy of the cognitive social network. Waking life social networks tend to have positive assortativity; that is, people tend to be connected to others with similar connectivity. Instead, in our sample of dream social networks assortativity is more often negative or near 0, as in online social networks. We show that if characters appear via a random walk, negative assortativity can result, particularly if the random walk is biased as suggested by remote associations.     

Does Theory of Mind in Pre-kindergarten Predict the Ability to Think About a Reader’s Mind in Elementary School Compositions? A Longitudinal Study

A critical skill in emergent writing is the developing ability to take the perspective of different readers; however, the precursors of this skill have not yet been identified. In this longitudinal study, 105 children (90 after attrition) were tested at 3 time points: pre-kindergarten (3–4 years old, n = 105), kindergarten (5 years old, n = 97), and Grade 1 (6–7 years old, n = 90). Theory of mind (ToM) in pre-kindergarten significantly predicted children’s awareness of a reader’s epistemic state when they dictated letters in both kindergarten and Grade 1 even after controlling for language (Peabody Picture Vocabulary Task [PPVT]) and inhibitory control. In addition, ToM in pre-kindergarten remained a significant predictor of reader awareness in Grade 1 after further controlling for reader awareness in kindergarten. There was little relationship between higher-order ToM tasks in kindergarten and reader awareness, but higher-order ToM in Grade 1 concurrently predicted reader awareness. Receptive vocabulary (PPVT) was significantly related to reader awareness at all time points, longitudinally and concurrently. This study has both theoretical implications for the relationship between ToM and emergent literacy and practical implications for the early identification and remediation of children at risk for later writing difficulties.     

Revisiting “Upstream Public Engagement”: from a Habermasian Perspective

The idea of conducting “upstream public engagement,” using nanotechnology as a test case, has been subject to criticism for its lack of any link to the political system. Drawing on the theoretical tools provided by Habermas, this article seeks to explore such a “link”, focusing specifically on the capacity of civil society organizations (CSOs) to distil, raise and transmit societal concerns in an amplified form to the public spheres at the European Union (EU) level. Based on content analysis and semi-structured interviews with relevant actors, this article examines the evolution of CSO approaches towards nanotechnology over the past decade and investigates whether and how upstream public engagement could contribute to more vibrant public spheres and facilitate the formation of communicative power. The answer to these questions is twofold: on the one hand, moving public engagement “upstream” enables CSOs to be better informed and to become part of the debates more quickly. A “green alliance” is taking shape, which calls for more stringent regulation on nanomaterials. On the other hand, upstream public engagement has turned out to be unsuccessful in generating substantial and sustained interest. A number of CSOs have quit this field in frustration at the tokenistic engagement and out of fatigue after the intense lobbying battle for Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH).     

母亲积极教养与青少年亲社会行为：共情的中介作用与OXTR基因的调节作用

诸多研究显示母亲积极教养能够促进青少年亲社会行为的发展, 但是迄今对其内在作用机制尚不清楚。本研究基于“基因-环境-内表型-行为”模型, 采用问卷法和DNA分型技术, 对1082名青少年(初测年龄为12.32 ± 0.48岁, 50.3%女生)及其母亲进行为期2年的追踪研究, 考察共情在母亲积极教养与青少年亲社会行为间的中介作用, 以及OXTR基因rs53576多态性对该中介机制的调节作用。结果发现：(1)青少年认知共情(观点采择)在母亲积极教养和亲社会行为之间起中介作用, 而情绪共情(移情关心)的中介作用不显著; (2) OXTR基因对积极教养与亲社会行为间直接路径的调节作用不显著; (3) OXTR基因能够调节“母亲积极教养-认知共情-亲社会行为”中介机制的前半路径, 并且显现出一种超显性的基因效应。在携带GG和AA基因型的青少年中, 母亲积极教养显著正向预测认知共情, 进而增加了其亲社会行为, 而在携带AG杂合子基因型的青少年中, 这一中介效应则不显著。研究结果有助于从催产素受体基因多态性、共情能力和家庭教养等方面阐明青少年亲社会行为的发生机制及个体差异。     

共情可控?以自上而下视角考察共情的可调节性

以往研究表明共情的特点包括自动化与情境依赖性。但是, 有关共情的理论模型与潜在神经机制仍存有争议。为更好地适应现实需求, 研究重点从共情的结构和功能角度逐渐向塑造和调节共情发展。近年来, 有研究者提出自上而下的心理过程与共情调节有关, 特别是共情的目标表征形式, 以及目标的价值权衡。因此, 考虑到共情的目标导向性对于共情的内部构建与外部表现形式的影响, 建议未来研究考虑从自上而下视角考察共情的可调节性。     

知觉模糊度影响学习的延迟效应

基于迁移适当加工理论,采用连续识别任务范式,通过操纵字词和图片的模糊度来考察知觉模糊非流畅的延迟效应。结果发现：（1）模糊不流畅的材料学习判断值更低;（2） 知觉模糊程度对即时的再认成绩没有影响,但在延迟再认测试中流畅性较低的模糊材料成绩更好。该结果表明实验操纵方式所引发的编码过程和记忆测试所需的检索过程性质上相匹配,而且延迟测试时,知觉非流畅可以促进学习,说明该效应存在边界。     

Reproducibility and variability of the cost functions reconstructed from experimental recordings in multifinger prehension

The study examines whether the cost functions reconstructed from experimental recordings are reproducible over time. Participants repeated the trials on three days. By following Analytical Inverse Optimization procedures, the cost functions of finger forces were reconstructed for each day. The cost functions were found to be reproducible over time: application of a cost function C(i) to the data of Day j (i≠j) resulted in smaller deviations from the experimental observations than using other commonly used cost functions. Other findings are: (a) the 2nd order coefficients of the cost function showed negative linear relations with finger force magnitudes; (b) the finger forces were distributed on a 2-dimensional plane in the 4-dimensional finger force space for all subjects and all testing sessions; (c) the data agreed well with the principle of superposition, i.e. the action of object prehension can be decoupled into the control of rotational equilibrium and slipping prevention.     

Mind-reading in strategic interaction: The impact of perceived similarity on projection and stereotyping

In social dilemmas, negotiations, and other forms of strategic interaction, mind-reading—intuiting another party’s preferences and intentions—has an important impact on an actor’s own behavior. In this paper, we present a model of how perceivers shift between social projection (using one’s own mental states to intuit a counterpart’s mental states) and stereotyping (using general assumptions about a group to intuit a counterpart’s mental states). Study 1 extends prior work on perceptual dilemmas in arms races, examining Americans’ perceptions of Chinese attitudes toward military escalation. Study 2 adapts a prisoner’s dilemma, pairing participants with outgroup targets. Study 3 employs an ultimatum game, asking male and female participants to make judgments about opposite sex partners. Study 4 manipulates perceived similarity as well as counterpart stereotype in a principal–agent context. Across the studies, we find evidence for our central prediction: higher levels of perceived similarity are associated with increased projection and reduced stereotyping.