CULTURAL VARIATION IN PROBABILISTIC THINKING: ALTERNATIVE WAYS OF DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY*

This study reviews research on cultural differences in “probabilistic thinking” and presents some intra- and inter-cultural findings. Strong differences are shown to exist between people raised under Asian and British cultures on measures of this ability. These differences were found to out-weigh any influence of subculture, religion, occupation, arts/science orientation and sex. Generally, Asians were found to adopt a less finely differentiated view of uncertainty both numerically and verbally than did the British sample. Numerical probabilities assessed by the Asians were more extreme and less realistic than those assessed by the British sample. Possible antecedents of these differences are outlined, and cultural differences in probabilistic thinking are shown to be compatible with decriptions of cultural differences in business decision making. It is argued that there are qualitative cultural differences in ways of dealing with uncertainty.     

Robust estimation of ability in the Rasch model

Estimating ability parameters in latent trait models in general, and in the Rasch model in particular is almost always hampered by noise in the data. This noise can be caused by guessing, inattention to easy questions, and other factors which are unrelated to ability. In this study several alternative formulations which attempt to deal with these problems without a reparameterization are tested through a Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that although no one of the tested schemes is uniformly superior to all others, a modified jackknife stood out as the best one in general, it was also super efficient (more efficient than the asymptotically optimal estimator) for tests with forty or fewer items. It is proposed that this sort of jackknifing scheme for estimating ability be considered for practical work.This research was funded through a grant from the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration (78-NI-AX-0047) to the Bureau of Social Science Research, Howard Wainer, Principal Investigator. We would like to thank Ronald Mead, Anne Morgan and James Ramsay for kind, generous, and invaluable help at various stages of the project.     

Will both spouses have careers?: Predictors of preferred traditional or egalitarian marriages among university students

This study examined the significance of work preference variables, family preference variables, socialization influences, and needs for achievement and affiliation in predicting preferred traditional versus egalitarian marriages among university students. Results showed that, overall, male university students preferred traditional marriages while female university students preferred egalitarian marriages. Sex also interacted significantly with the following variables: desired family task involvement, desired job task involvement, and mother's family involvement. The data suggest that a perspective encompassing a wide variety of variables (including work, family, and socialization considerations) may be useful for conceptualizing individuals' preferences for traditional or egalitarian marriages. Implications of the results for management and career counseling are discussed.     

The Effects of Measurement Strategy on Attributions for Marital Problems and Behaviors1

The present study examined the relation of attributions for spouse behaviors, attributions for global conjugal conflict, and marital adjustment. The sample consisted of 74 French-Canadian couples who completed the Marital Attribution Style Questionnaire, the Conflict Rating Scale, and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Results showed that the relation between attribution and marital satisfaction is stable across culture. In addition, specific and general attribution measures were low to moderately correlated. However, multiple regression analyses demonstrated that attributions for global conjugal conflict entered the regression equations more often than attributions for hypothetical spouse behaviors. These findings suggest that the comparability of marital attribution measures should not be taken for granted. The need to develop standardized measures is underlined.     

Growth coping,work satisfaction and turnover: A longitudinal study

A longitudinal organizational field study examined work satisfaction and employee growth coping as joint predictors of turnover. Three employee categories were examined: 1) No Turnover, 2) turnover within the same occupational field (Intraoccupational Turnover), and 3) turnover to a new occupational field (Interoccupational Turnover). Work satisfaction was moderate in the first two groups and low in the third group. As predicted, a specific strategy of employee coping, growth, was lowest in the first group, moderate in the second group, and highest in the third group. Through the use of linear discriminant analysis, 66.4% of the employees were correctly classified into No Turnover, Intraoccupational Turnover, and Interoccupational Turnover groups based only on information regarding work satisfaction and growth coping. The first squared canonical correlation was found to equal .30, far surpassing the modest work satisfaction/turnover correlations found in all previous studies.The authors wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful comments.     

Engagement and recruitment for family therapy research in community settings

Based on the recruitment experience in a family therapy research project with heroin addicts, this paper explores the difficulties of researcher networking with other social service agencies. Concepts from contextual family therapy are used to explore four general areas that contribute to successful intra-agency relationships: 1) Evaluating the nature of larger system relationships; 2) identifying the resources and needs of a clinic; 3) joining with the counseling staff; and 4) addressing the impact of public policy and ideology on clinic life. A case of engaging one clinic is presented and nine guidelines for engaging large community settings for participation in family therapy research are offered. These areas are considered in light of the relational dynamics that arise when working with multiple social service systems.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Family Therapy Association conference in Washington, DC, June 1986. The authors are grateful to the recruitment staff of the Intergenerational Family Therapy Project: Guillermo Lopez, Bart Rubin, Sharara Godfry, and Armando Chenyek. This research was supported in part by a grant to Guillermo Bernal from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA03543).     

A systemic belief approach to epileptic seizures: A case of being spellbound

A systemic treatment approach, namely systemic belief therapy, has been found to be useful when dealing with families constraining beliefs when experiencing physical health problems. Two interventions which facilitate the altering of constraining beliefs are the externalization of physical symptoms and therapeutic letters. Epileptic seizures are examined in the context of the interaction between families and health care professionals. A case example is presented which highlights the use of this systemic approach to assist a young couple in challenging their beliefs about their ability to control and monitor epileptic seizures.