A selectionist explanation for the success and failures of science

I argue that van Fraassen’s selectionist explanation for the success of science is superior to the realists’ explanation. Whereas realists argue that our current theories are successful because they accurately reflect the structure of the world, the selectionist claims that our current theories are successful because unsuccessful theories have been eliminated. I argue that, unlike the explanation proposed by the realist, the selectionist explanation can also account for the failures of once successful theories and the fact that sometimes two competing theories are both equally successful.

The relationship between illness perceptions and panic in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BackgroundElevated levels of anxiety and panic are common in respiratory disease. To date the cognitive-behavioural model of panic has been utilised to help explain and manage panic in respiratory disease. This cross-sectional study investigated the relationship between illness perceptions and panic in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) within a self-regulatory framework of adaptation to physical illness.MethodsFifty-nine participants with COPD completed questionnaires measuring illness perceptions, anxiety and depression, frequency and severity of panic attacks and impact of disease on daily life and well-being. The percent forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV₁%) was used as an objective measure of lung function.ResultsHigh levels of clinical anxiety and depression were reported (35% and 19% respectively). Sixty-three percent of participants reported experiencing a panic attack during the previous year and of these 51% during the previous month. Panic was unrelated to level of disease severity. Specific illness perceptions (beliefs relating to illness identity, timeline, consequences and emotional representations) were important in differentiating between panickers and non-panickers.ConclusionsThe results highlight the importance of assessing illness perceptions within the framework of the self-regulatory model to provide an additional theoretical perspective for investigating and managing panic in chronic respiratory disease.     

Success and truth in the realism/anti-realism debate

I aim to clarify the relationship between the success of a theory and the truth of that theory. This has been a central issue in the debates between realists and anti-realists. Realists assume that success is a reliable indicator of truth, but the details about the respects in which success is a reliable indicator or test of truth have been largely left to our intuitions. Lewis (Synthese 129:371–380, 2001) provides a clear proposal of how success and truth might be connected, comparing a test of success of our theories to medical tests with low rates of false positives and false negatives. But, contrary to what Lewis claims, I argue that it is not enough for the realist to undercut the claim that success is not a reliable indicator of truth. Rather, the realist must show that our current best theories are likely true. Further, I argue that tests in science are unlike medical tests in a number of important ways.     

Theology is not Mere Sociology: A Theological Reflection on the Reception of the Christian Religion in Mainland China

Abstract :  Post‐Maoist China retains its loyalty to Marxist principles; yet voices are being heard that interpret religion much more positively. Both government spokespersons and Religious Studies scholars measure the value of religion according to its social function. Such a criterion of evaluation fails to take account of what is essential to Christian theology, namely, appeal to divine transcendence. Yet, Christian theology in the tradition of the Lutheran Reformation begins with transcendence and turns toward human responsibility for the world through loving the neighbor. This may mark a common cause between Chinese sociology of religion and Christian commitments to social well‐being.     

Threats may be negative promises (but warnings are more than negative tips)

In everyday situations conditional promises, threats, tips, and warnings are commonplace. Previous research has reported disruption to eye movements during reading when conditional promises are produced by someone who does not have control over the conditional outcome event, but no such disruption for the processing of conditional tips. In the present paper, we examine how readers process conditional threats and warnings. We compare one account which views conditional threats and warnings simply as promises and tips with negative outcomes, with an alternative account which highlights their broader pragmatic differences. In an eye-tracking experiment we find evidence suggesting that, in processing terms, while threats operate like negative promises, warnings are more than negative tips.     

Determining the Propensity for Academic Dishonesty Using Decision Tree Analysis

This article investigates the propensity for academic dishonesty by university students using the partitioning method of decision tree analysis. A set of prediction rules are presented, and conclusions are drawn. To provide context for the decision tree approach, the partition process is compared with results of more traditional probit regression models. Results of the decision tree analysis complement the probit models in terms of predictive accuracy and confirm results previously found in the literature. In particular, students’ moral character—whether they believe cheating is acceptable—is found to be the most important factor in determining the propensity for academic dishonesty.     

The Functions and Longitudinal Outcomes of Adolescents’ Naturally Occurring Mentorships

Adolescence is a time during which positive adults outside the familial context may be most influential to development. A growing body of research on naturally occurring mentors has found favorable outcomes for youth who have these types of positive adult figures in their lives. Less is known, however, about how these naturally occurring mentors influence youths’ development in the long‐term. This study examines the long‐term outcomes related to having a naturally occurring community mentor in adolescence. Results from longitudinal analyses of a nationally representative sample of adolescents revealed that having a mentor in adolescence was related to higher educational attainment, lower criminal activity, higher psychological well‐being (i.e., optimism, self‐efficacy, and lack of depressive symptoms), and greater romantic relationship satisfaction in adulthood. Additionally, a taxonomy of mentoring functions was created from qualitative responses and drawing upon the youth, work, and academic mentoring literature. This taxonomy aims to serve as a framework for understanding the functions of youth mentors to provide a foundation for future research. Implications of findings and future directions are considered.     

Predicting Occupational Status for Non-College-Bound Males

In a follow-up of selected 1957 Wisconsin male high school graduates (N = 2,230), a prediction of occupational status was attempted. Of the 17 independent variables used, 3 emerged as highly significant and valid: post-high school education (p < .001), community of residence (p < .001), and high school grade-point average (p < .01). Two multiple coefficients were obtained (R = .32, F = 42.43, p < .001, and R = .26, F = 24.97, p < .001). Results suggest that family background factors and aspiration levels are not as important in predicting occupational status as are further education and training, high school achievement, and community of orientation in a highly industrialized urban technocracy.