Semantic Coherence and Inconsistency in Estimating Conditional Probabilities

Two studies examined semantic coherence and internal inconsistency fallacies in conditional probability estimation. Problems reflected five distinct relationships between two sets: identical sets, mutually exclusive sets, subsets, overlapping sets, and independent sets (a special case of overlapping sets). Participants estimated P(A), P(B), P(A|B), and P(B|A). Inconsistency occurs when this constellation of estimates does not conform to Bayes' theorem. Semantic coherence occurs when this constellation of estimates is consistent with the depicted relationship among sets. Fuzzy‐trace theory predicts that people have difficulty with overlapping sets and subsets because they require class‐inclusion reasoning. On these problems, people are vulnerable to denominator neglect, the tendency to ignore relevant denominators, making the gist more difficult to discern. Independent sets are simplified by the gist understanding that P(A) provides no information about P(B), and thus, P(A|B) = P(A). The gist for identical sets is that P(A|B) = 1.0, and the gist of mutually exclusive sets is that P(A|B) = 0. In Study 1, identical, mutually exclusive, and independent sets yielded superior performance (in internal inconsistency and semantic coherence) than subsets and overlapping sets. For subsets and overlapping sets, interventions clarifying appropriate denominators generally improved semantic coherence and inconsistency, including teaching people to use Euler diagrams, 2 × 2 tables, or relative frequencies. In Study 2, with problems about breast cancer and BRCA mutations, there was a strong correlation between inconsistency in conditional probability estimation and conjunction fallacies of joint probability estimation, suggesting that similar fallacious reasoning processes produce these errors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid search in context: How to search for vegetables in the produce section and cereal in the cereal aisle

ABSTRACT

The own race bias (ORB) refers to a finding that faces of members of one's own racial or ethnic group are easier to recognize. Holistic processing theories suggest that the ORB might be moderated by viewing distance. Participants studied photographs of own and other race individuals and then took a recognition memory test. Viewing distance was simulated by varying the degree to which photographs were blurred (Experiment 1) and by varying photograph size (Experiment 2). Findings indicated that own race faces were better recognized, that recognition was impaired by simulated viewing distance, but the size of the ORB was not contingent upon distance.     

Neuropeptides in eating disorders

The past decade has witnessed a dramatic acceleration in research on the role of the neuropeptides in the regulation of eating behavior and body weight homeostasis. This expanding research focus has been driven in part by increasing public health concerns related to obesity and the eating disorders anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN). Preclinical advances have been facilitated by the development of new molecular and behavioral research methodologies. With a focus on clinical investigations in AN and BN, this article reviews research on selected hypothalamic and gut-related peptide systems with prominent effects on eating behavior. Studies of the orexigenic peptides neuropeptide Y and the opioid peptides have shown state-related abnormalities in patients with eating disorders. With respect to gut-related peptides, there appears to be substantial evidence for blunting in the meal-related release of the satiety promoting peptide cholecystokinin in BN. Fasting plasma levels of the orexigenic peptide ghrelin have been found to be elevated in patients with AN. As discussed in this review, additional studies will be needed to assess the role of nutritional and body weight changes in neuropeptide alterations observed in symptomatic eating disorder patients, and to identify stable trait-related abnormalities in neuropeptide regulation that persist in individuals who have recovered from an eating disorder.     

How do we track invisible objects?

We previously demonstrated that observers in multiple object tracking experiments can successfully track targets when all the objects simultaneously vanish for periods lasting several hundred milliseconds (Alvarez, Horowitz, Arsenio, Dimase, &; Wolfe, 2005). How do observers do this? Since observers can track objects that move behind occluders (e.g., Scholl &; Pylyshyn, 1999), they may treat a temporal gap as a case of complete occlusion. If so, performance should improve if occlusion cues (deletion and accretion) are provided and items disappear and reappear one by one (asynchronously), rather than simultaneously. However, we found better performance with simultaneous than with asynchronous disappearance (Experiment 1), whereas occlusion cues were detrimental (Experiment 2). We propose that observers tolerate a gap in tracking by storing the current task state when objects vanish and resuming tracking on the basis of that memory when the objects reappear (a task-switching account).     

Memory for narrative and expository text: independent influences of semantic associations and text organization

The author examined memory for text in terms of the independent influences of semantic knowledge associations and text organization. Semantic associations were operationalized as the semantic relatedness between individual text concepts and the text as a whole and assessed with latent semantic analysis. The author assessed text organization by simulating comprehension with the construction integration model. Text organization consistently accounted for unique variance in recall. Semantic associations strongly predicted expository recall and predicted narrative recall significantly but to a lesser extent, even when the familiarity of the narrative content was manipulated. Results suggest that prior semantic associations and novel associations in the text structure influence memory independently, and that these influences can be affected by text genre.     

Measures of prefrontal system dysfunction in posttraumatic stress disorder

Clinical observations have suggested that individuals who have suffered traumatic stressful events exhibit disruption in abilities mediated by frontal brain systems. Therefore, this study employed tasks sensitive to frontal lobe dysfunction, including delayed response (DR), delayed alternation (DA), object alternation (OA), delayed matching-to-sample (DMTS), and delayed nonmatching-to-sample (DNMTS), with participants having posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Compared to controls, the PTSD participants were unimpaired on DA and DMTS, but they showed deficits on DR, OA, and DNMTS tasks. This pattern of results suggests disruption of functioning in selective prefrontal brain systems. Results are discussed in the context of the neuropsychological features of PTSD, as well as possible neuropathological and etiological underpinnings of this disorder.     

A Message to Assimilative Integrationists: It's Time to Become Accommodative Integrationists: A Commentary

This commentary considers the six papers on assimilative integration in the larger context of the significance of this specific form of integration for psychotherapy integration in general. The author begins by revealing his bias that theoretical integration is the most mature form of psychotherapy integration. In this context, he views assimilative integration as an advanced form of eclecticism that absorbs technical eclecticism into the practitioner/theorist's home orientation. Several of the papers present useful examples of assimilative integration, but they tend not to explore the implications of the successful application of foreign techniques for their home theories. The author concludes by suggesting that assimilative integrationists need to become accommodative integrationists by thinking through the implications for, and the implied modifications to, their home theoretical orientations. Accommodative integration would bring us a step closer to the author's ultimate goal—an emergent, unifying, and integrative theory of psychotherapy.     

Child witnesses to violence between parents: Critical issues in Behavioral and social adjustment

This study examined the impact of exposure to family violence on children's adjustment. Two groups of residents of shelters for battered women (current and former residents) were compared to a nonviolent control group. All three groups of mothers completed interviews and selfreport questionnaires related to both their own and their children's adjustment. Children recently witnessing violence tended to have the lowest levels of social competence ratings, and their mothers reported the most health and emotional difficulties. Former residents of shelters experienced the highest level of family/social disadvantage. The results are discussed in the context of previous research findings, and implications for intervention programs are outlined.This research was supported by a grant from the Ontario Ministry of Community and Social Service and the Ontario Mental Health Foundation. The authors wish to thank the staff of transition houses in Cambridge, Catham, Guelph, Kitchener, Sarnia, and Woodstock for their generous support of this project.