Contingent approaches to making likelihood judgments about polychotomous cases: the influence of task factors

Two experiments tested the influence of three task factors on respondents' tendency to use normative, heuristic, and random approaches to making likelihood judgments about polychotomous cases (i.e., cases in which there is more than one alternative to a focal hypothesis). Participants estimated their likelihood of winning hypothetical raffles in which they and other players held various numbers of tickets. Responding on non‐numeric scales (vs. numeric ones) and responding under time pressure (vs. self‐paced) increased participants' use of a comparison‐heuristic approach, resulting in non‐normative judgment patterns. A manipulation of evidence representation (whether ticket quantities were represented by numbers or more graphically by bars) did not have reliably detectable effects on processing approaches to likelihood judgment. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for the further development of likelihood judgment theories, and they discuss parallels between contingent processing in choice and contingent processing in likelihood judgment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct-comparison judgments: when and why above- and below-average effects reverse

Above-average and below-average effects appear to be common and consistent across a variety of judgment domains. For example, several studies show that individual items from a high- (low-) quality set tend to be rated as better (worse) than the other items in the set (e.g., E. E. Giladi & Y. Klar, 2002). Experiments in this article demonstrate reversals of these effects. A novel account is supported, which describes how the timing of the denotation of the to-be-judged item influences attention and ultimately affects the size or direction of comparative biases. The authors discuss how this timing account is relevant for many types of referent-dependent judgments (e.g., probability judgments, resource allocations) and how it intersects with various accounts of comparative bias (focalism, generalized-group, compromise between local and general standards [LOGE]).     

Die therapeutische Beziehung

The therapeutic relationship is deserving of special consideration. Both knowledge of the widely varying aspects of proposals in terms of possible relationship regulation and acquisition of the different forms of therapeutic relationship management are crucial for therapeutic success. Impact factors are used in the psychotherapeutic process (resource activation, problem activation, problem identification and problem solving), which are predominantly used in rapid succession or even simultaneously. This is also true of the relationship proposals intended and deployed by the therapist, which can also be conceptualised on the basis of impact factors. It has been shown that a single relationship quality can have very different mechanisms of action (e.g. on problem updating and identification). Successful therapeutic relationship regulation is characterized by high flexibility on the part of the therapist, who is able to move between the poles of understanding/confirmation, guidance/support and leadership/control. A good therapeutic relationship in terms of effecting an improvement in the patient is characterized according to the therapist’s flexibility as regards what he/she can offer in the relationship, a flexibility which can no longer be squarely attributed to one therapy discipline alone. In order to take the significance of the therapeutic relationship into account, the training and specific skills required for this need to be taught during training and supervision. A prerequisite to this, in addition to a sound theoretical training in the relevant aspects of relationship regulation, is relationship regulation skills in terms of both concept and own practical experience.     

Risk it? Direct and collateral impacts of peers' verbal expressions about hazard likelihoods*

When people encounter potential hazards, their expectations and behaviours can be shaped by a variety of factors including other people's expressions of verbal likelihood (e.g., unlikely to harm). What is the impact of such expressions when a person also has numeric likelihood estimates from the same source(s)? Two studies used a new task involving an abstract virtual environment in which people learned about and reacted to novel hazards. Verbal expressions attributed to peers influenced participants’ behaviour toward hazards even when numeric estimates were also available. Namely, verbal expressions suggesting that the likelihood of harm from a hazard is low (vs. higher) yielded more risk taking with respect to said hazard. There were also inverse collateral effects, whereby participants’ behaviour and estimates regarding another hazard in the same context were affected in the opposite direction. These effects may be based on directionality and relativity cues inferred from verbal likelihood expressions.     

Likelihood judgment based on previously observed outcomes: the alternative-outcomes effect in a learning paradigm

Previous research has demonstrated that intuitive perceptions of certainty regarding a focal outcome are sensitive to variations in how evidence supporting nonfocal alternatives is distributed, even when such variations have no bearing on objective probability. We investigated this alternative-outcomes effect in a learning paradigm in which participants made likelihood judgments on the basis of their memory for past observations of relevant outcomes. In Experiment 1, a manipulation of evidence (observed frequencies) across alternative outcomes influenced not only intuitive certainty estimates about a focal outcome but also numeric subjective probabilities. Experiment 2 ruled out the possibility that these effects were attributable to the influence of information loss on frequency estimations. The findings were consistent with the heuristic comparison account, which suggests that the judged likelihood of a focal outcome will be disproportionately influenced by the strength (frequency) of the strongest alternative outcome.     

Die Sachverständigenexpertise im Spannungsfeld zwischen Justiz und Psychiatrie am Beispiel des Hangbegriffes des § 66 StGB (Sicherungsverwahrung)

Using the example of psychiatric expert opinions in trials leading to preventive detention, we analysed how far the corresponding orders by the courts were suited to guide the psychiatric experts and restrict them to their area of expertise. Furthermore we concentrated on the question, what reasons were given for preventive detention on both psychiatric and judicial side and how psychiatric arguments were adopted by the judges. Our results show clearly, that placing an order with the psychiatric expert as well as adopting the psychiatric arguments for preventive detention occur mainly in a stereotypic way. Psychiatric and judicial arguments for preventive detention refer both to previous delinquency. Aspects concerning the offenders personality appear to be secondary, although they play a major role in the decision for preventive detention. The article shows the controversy associated with forensic-psychiatric expertise in the courtroom and the need for communication and clarification between psychiatry and law.     

Athanasios Koukopoulos (1931–2013)

With the death of Athanasios Koukopoulos last year, psychiatry lost one of its most stimulating and scientifically influential representatives has been lost. His main scientific contributions are in the course of manic depressive illnesses and mixed affective states. Perhaps his most important contribution to modern psychiatry are his studies on the use of antidepressants in bipolar disorder. He was able to show that antidepressants attenuate the beneficial effects of lithium, can trigger mania, and can lead to cycle acceleration and rapid cycling.     

Kulturdynamisches Modell der bikulturellen Identit?t

In intercultural psychotherapeutic treatment, the psychological integration of different cultures within an individual has to be involved as an additional developmental dimension. Individual change during the process of migration considered as desirable adaptation has often been conceptualized in terms of a bicultural identity, which includes aspects of the culture of origin as well as aspects of the host culture. The theoretical foundation of the concept of bicultural identity, however, has remained insufficient. The culture-dynamic model presented here differentiates personal and social identity according to the identity concept proposed by Mead (Geist, Identit?t und Gesellschaft, 1988, Suhrkamp, Frankfurt a.?M.). Personal identity is essentially formed by an individual??s culture of origin, while influences of the host culture primarily affect the social identity. For healthy coping with the challenges associated with migration and adequate support of this process in intercultural psychotherapy, it can be assumed that a stabilization of personal identity is required to allow for a dynamization of social identity. Implications for identity constitution in second generation immigrants, in different stages of lifespan development and in the process of learning the language of the host culture are discussed.