Prediction and prejudice

Evidence that supports a theory may be available to the scientist who constructs the theory and used as a guide to that construction, or it may only be discovered in the course of testing the theory. The central claim of this essay is that information about whether the evidence was accommodated or predicted affects the rational degree of confidence one ought to have in the theory. Only when the evidence is accommodated is there some reason to believe that the theoretical system was ‘fudged’ to fit the evidence in a way that weakens support. This weakening is an objective matter, but not one that can be conclusively determined by examining the contents of the theory and its logical relationship to the evidence. Consequently, there is less reason to believe a theory on the basis of that evidence when it is known that the evidence was accommodated than there would be if it was known instead that the same evidence had been predicted.     

Laws,chances and properties

The paper develops a unified account of both deterministic and indeterministic laws of nature which inherits the merits but not the defects of the best existing accounts. As in Armstrong's account, laws are embodied in facts about universals; but not in higher‐order relations between them, and the necessity of laws is not primitive but results from their containing chances of 0 or 1. As in the Ramsey‐Lewis account, law statements would be the general axioms and theorems of the simplest deductive theory of everything; but because laws are not so defined, simplicity of statement is not a criterion of law‐hood.     

Scotching the Dutch Book Argument

Consistent application of coherece arguments shows that fair betting quotients are subject to constraints that are too stringent to allow their identification with either degrees of belief or probabilities. The pivotal role of fair betting quotients in the Dutch Book Argument, which is said to demonstrate that a rational agent's degrees of belief are probabilities, is thus undermined from both sides.     

Efficacy of behavioral management and patient education on vascular access cleansing compliance in hemodialysis patients

Compared four treatment conditions to test their ability to enhance compliance with vascular access cleansing (VAC) procedures in a group of 56 hemodialysis patients. The conditions were patient education, behavioral management with monetary incentive, patient education/behavioral management, and attention control. Behavioral observers rated VAC behavior at pretreatment, posttreatment 1-month follow-up, and 1-year follow-up. Knowledge of VAC procedures was also assessed via a questionnaire at pretreatment and posttreatment. Data were analyzed using repeated-measures multivariate analyses of variance. Results indicated that the patients in the education/behavioral, behavioral, and education groups gave significantly more correct answers on our VAC knowledge questionnaires at posttreatment than did patients in the attention control group. Further, patients in the education/behavioral and behavioral groups completed significantly more VAC steps at posttreatment and 1-month follow-up than did patients in the education group and in the attention control group. Differences were not maintained at 1-year follow-up, although more than 50% of the patients were lost to follow-up. Implications of the present findings for behavioral and educational interventions are discussed.     

Inquiry into intentional systems I: Issues in ecological physics

Summary The role of intention in guiding the behavior of goal-directed systems is a problem that continues to challenge behavioral science. While it is generally agreed that intentional systems must be consistent with the laws of physics, there are many obvious differences between inanimate, physical systems and sentient, intentional systems. This suggests that there must be constraints over and above those of physics that govern goal-directed behavior. In this paper it is suggested that generic properties of self-organizing mechanisms may play a central role in the origin and evolution of intentional constraints. The properties of self-organizing systems are first introduced in the context of simple physical systems and then extended to a complex (biological) system. Whereas behavior of an inanimate physical system is lawfully determined by force fields, behavior of an animate biological system is lawfully specified by information fields. Biological systems are distinguished from simple physical systems in terms of their ubiquitous use of information fields as special (biological and psychological, social, etc.) boundary conditions on classical laws. Unlike classical constraints (boundary conditions), informational constraints can vary with time and state of the system. Because of the nonstationarity of the boundary conditions, the dynamic of the system can follow a complex trajectory that is organized by a set of spatially and temporally distributed equilibrium points or regions. It is suggested that this equilibrium set and the laws that govern its transformation define a minimal requirement for an intentional system. One of the benefits of such an approach is that it suggests a realist account for the origin of semantic predicates, thereby providing a basis for the development of a theory of symbolic dynamics. Therefore, the principles of self-organization provide a comprehensive basis for investigating intentional systems by suggesting how it is that intentions arise, and by providing a lawful basis for intentional behavior that reveals how organisms become and remain lawfully informed in the pursuit of their goals.     

How far can attraction-caused misalignment account for the Morinaga misalignment effect?

Summary When a line (the pointer) is collinear with a dot, the addition of a second line (the induction line) contiguous with the dot or near it may cause the pointer to appear to be collinear with a point further along or nearer to the induction line. The geometrical relations upon which this effect, which we call attraction-caused misalignment, depends have been studied with the Obonai and Wundt-Loeb (Hotopf, 1981; Hotopf & Brown, 1988) figures. Drawing upon the studies of misalignment in the Morinaga figure carried out by Restle (1976), Day, Bellamy, and Norman (1983), and Day and Kasperczyk (1985), as well as upon two new experiments, we show that misalignment in the Morinaga figure is also attraction-caused misalignment, as previously defined. We conclude with a discussion of a number of theories that aim at accounting for attraction misalignment.     

Time courses in visual-information processing: Some theoretical considerations

Summary In the literature two different views with regard to the time course of activation of recognition units —hypothetical entities that represent identity information —are proposed. Both views are derived from a restricted set of phenomena in visual perception. The first view gets its intuitions from phenomena such as those summarized by Bloch's law; these phenomena show integration or summation of activation over time. This grow-and-grow view assumes that recognition units accumulate activation gradually over times The second view finds its inspiration in phenomena such as Mach-bands and simultaneous contrast; these phenomena show inhibition or steady-state suppression over time. This grow-and-shrink view assumes that the activation levels increase fast initially and then start to decrease.The perception literature strongly suggests that it may be light intensity that determines whether mainly integration (and phenomena such as Bloch's law) or inhibition (and phenomena such as Mach-bands) is obtained. So it is also likely that both information-processing views apply only to a limited range of intensity conditions; the grow-and-grow view to conditions of low-flight intensities, and the grow-and-shrink view to conditions of intermediate-and high-light intensities.It is argued that, to arrive at a complete view, a visual phenomenon that applies to the complete range of light intensities should be taken as a background for generating hypotheses about time courses in visual-information processing. The Broca-Sulzer effect is such a phenomenon. Starting from this phenomenon a simple, synthesizing, information-processing model is derived that is compatible with both the grow-and-grow view and the grow-andshrink view. It is shown that, besides the relevant temporal properties, this model also produces the appropriate spatial properties.     

Research on working women: A report card of 22 journals

The study was part of an official project of the Women in Management Division of the Academy of Management to examine the status of research in gender issues in organizations. It specifically looked at 22 major scholarly and trade journals plus the Proceedings of the Academy of Management for the six-year period of 1983–1988 to determine quantity, patterns, and trends in publication of research on issues of interest to the domain of the division. Results show a downward trend in gender-issue publication at a time when working women are becoming an ever-increasing percentage of the work force. This is particularly true of the so-called prestige journals. Psychology journals accounted for 64% of the total, management 13.4%, personnel 19%, and Proceedings 3.5%. Implications for research and careers are discussed.A shorter, less-complete version of this paper was presented in summary form at the annual meeting of The Academy of Management in Washington, DC, August 1989 as part of a symposium for the Women in Management Division.     

Adding new information to semantic memory: how much learning is enough to produce automatic priming?

A series of experiments investigated the integration of new vocabulary words into semantic memory and the creation of new associations between preexisting, but previously unrelated, words. The ability of the newly learned vocabulary words and associations to facilitate lexical decisions when serving as primes under conditions associated with automatic processing was used to index integration. The results indicate that very extensive study is necessary for such integration to occur and that it is easier to add a new word to semantic memory than to establish a link between two formerly unconnected words already in semantic memory. The implications of these results for models of semantic memory and the episodic/semantic distinction are considered.     

Time courses in visual-information processing: Some empirical evidence for inhibition

Summary In the literature two different views on the time course of activation of recognition units — hypothetical units that represent identity information — are proposed. The first view assumes that the recognition units accumulate activation gradually over time. The second assumes that the activation levels increase fast initially and then start to decrease. Hagenzieker and Van der Heijden (1990) have proposed a more general information-processing model, which is compatible with both views. In this model a treshold determines what type of time course will be obtained. For below-threshold-activation values a gradual accumulation of activation will be found; for above-threshold values activation levels will first increase and then, because of inhibition, decrease. This model served as a starting-point for the present paper. Elaboration of this model led to two testable hypotheses with regard to identification performance. The first prediction is that evidence for inhibition should be observed only under relatively bright luminance conditions. The second is that, given inhibition, the amount of the effect of this inhibition should increase over time. A partial-report bar-probe task was used to test the predictions. The experiment involved two luminance conditions and the information was sampled at two different moments in time. To control for possible localization artefacts a digit-naming task was also used. Evidence for inhibition was found in both luminance conditions. In accordance with the model the amount of the effect of inhibition increased over time.