Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

The question addressed in this study is whether experts are better calibrated than lay people. We investigated how well people are calibrated when they assess the probabilities of card combinations in the game of blackjack. Three groups of subjects were used: professional dealers, statistical experts, and control subjects. The results showed that experience and statistical expertise do not make people better calibrated in this task. It is argued that the concept of calibration is not wholly appropriate to describe the obtained deviations from the normatively correct responses. This is illustrated by a discriminant analysis performed on the signed deviation scores, which resulted in an almost perfect separation of the three groups, although they were overlapping with respect to calibration.     

Conversational skill and locus of perception

The present study attempted to identify behavioral skills associated with global perceptions of communication competence and to determine if the relationship between competence and skills varies as a function of perceptual locus. Fifteen dyadic conversations were videotaped. Each interactant rated self and partner and was rated by four observers who viewed each tape. Results indicated that subjects' perceptions of their partners' skills accounted for 87% of the variance in subjects' ratings of partners' competence and 80% of the variance in subjects'self-perceived confirmation. Observers' ratings of subjects' skills predicted 83% of the variance in observers' ratings of subjects' competence. Observers'ratings of subjects'skills were unrelated to subjects' self-rated competence.     

Sexual responding of “nonrapists” to aggressive sexual themes: Normative data

The present study presents data relevant to the sexual responding to aggressive cues of a large sample of nonrapist males recruited from the community. Two hundred three subjects received physiological assessment of sexual arousal to heterosexual and rape stimuli. Results indicated that under instructions not to interfere with sexual responding, approximately 80% of the nonrapists would be correctly classified, which was significantly different from chance. However, under instructions to suppress arousal, classification was no better than chance. The rape index was not related to age, socioeconomic status, sexual experience, or amount of arousal shown in the laboratory. However, there was a small but significant relationship to IQ. Overall, the data suggest that for instructions not to interfere with responding, the error rate seen in this larger-scale sample was equivalent to that in previous studies using smaller normative samples and that classification in general is not biased by the subject characteristics measured in this study.Portions of this project were supported by USPHS Grant MH-34030-02 from the Center for the Studies of Crime and Delinquency and by Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Mental Retardation Research Contract ID-0783 to the Department of Psychiatry.     

When not to choose: A case study

Life situations often seem to require dualistic, either or decision making, but this common method does not always clarify moral decisions. To show this, standard arguments on why to choose or not to choose the sex or ones child are presented. Then, our feminist thinking, which regards clusters of values, and which reframes questions rather than choosing between desirable alternatives, suggests another possibility, in a gynandrous world vision.     

Circadian factors during sustained performance: Background and methodology

Cornell University Medical College, Westchester Division, The New York Hospital, White Plains, New York It is well established that there is a complex timekeeping mechanism in the human brain. This mechanism is associated with a variety of physiological and psychological rhythms having a period of about a day, and thus referred to as circadian rhythms. The circadian system has recently been modeled in terms of two underlying oscillators, one much more resistant to changes in routine than the other. These oscillators are considered to be endogenous, that is, internal to the organism, and not reliant for their existence upon changes in the person’s environment or general behavior. They thus continue to run even when the sleep/wake cycle is suspended, as in sustained operations. Thus, by their very nature, sustained operations require the individual to override the inputs that are coming from his or her circadian system (especially the indication that sleep is required). The aim of this paper is to provide a background to the area of circadian rhythms research, including a section on the methodology, so that the impact of the circadian system on sustained operations can be better understood.     

Women's marital-familial statuses and work histories: Some conceptual considerations

Although vocational psychologists and sociologists have a long history of researching occupational choice, their theoretical postures have almost always been shaped in light of information on males, with little consideration for females. This article is an addition to others which attempt to correct this shortcoming in the literature. The article reviews the dominant conceptual schemes used to study occupational choice, considers potentially female-specific variables, and provides a typology for the analysis of women's marital-familial statuses and work modes.     

Experimental evidence for the similarity of personality and attitude item responding

The process of responding to attitude items was broken down into a series of cognitive stages and a model offered. To test this model, subjects responded to attitude items varying in Extremity under two or five response alternative formats. By measuring response times, and applying Sternberg's (1969) additive factor method, the model was supported. The results were discussed in terms of previous process work involving personality items and sentence verification tasks.     

The stability of status orientations among young,white, rural women from three southern states

This paper reports the results of a panel study of young, white, rural women from Georgia, South Carolina, and Texas (N = 138). The study was primarily concerned with how social origin variables affected early educational and occupational orientations and how early states of these orientations affected the orientations themselves at a later point in time. The results indicated that mother's education had a greater effect than father's education, but in either case the effect is mediated by intervening influences such as early aspirations and expectations. These young women held very traditional status orientations (with 60% projecting the occupations of beautician, nurse, stenographer, or school teacher), and their orientations were quite stable between their sophomore and senior years in high school. Since there has been so little work reported on the status attainment process for women, and rural women in particular, this study does offer a limited insight into this phenomenon.