Calibration of probability assessments by professional blackjack dealers, statistical experts, and lay people

The question addressed in this study is whether experts are better calibrated than lay people. We investigated how well people are calibrated when they assess the probabilities of card combinations in the game of blackjack. Three groups of subjects were used: professional dealers, statistical experts, and control subjects. The results showed that experience and statistical expertise do not make people better calibrated in this task. It is argued that the concept of calibration is not wholly appropriate to describe the obtained deviations from the normatively correct responses. This is illustrated by a discriminant analysis performed on the signed deviation scores, which resulted in an almost perfect separation of the three groups, although they were overlapping with respect to calibration.     

Philosophy of medicine in the Netherlands

This report explores the relationship between philosophy and medicine in the Netherlands. In Section 1 we outline the ups and downs of medico-philosophical research in our country: pre-war flourishing, post-war decline, and modern renaissance. In Section 2 we review recent Dutch literature in the philosophy of medicine. The topics dealt with include methodology of medical science, alternative medicine, the basic concepts of medicine, anthropological medicine, medicalization, medicine and culture, and health care ethics.     

Development of lateral asymmetry in the perception of sequentially touched fingers

In order to investigate lateral asymmetry in tactile perception, two or four fingers of normal primary school children were touched sequentially. Stimulation was either unimanual or bimanual and either verbal or nonverbal responses were required. Right hand advantage was demonstrated subsequent to uni- and bimanual stimulation in both the verbal and nonverbal response conditions. Neither an age nor a sex effect on laterality was found. Right hand advantage was affected by direction of stimulation in the bimanual condition. Left hemispheric dominance was argued to be related to the temporal nature of the tasks.     

Treatment of obsessive-compulsive patients: The contribution of self-instructional training to the effectiveness of exposure

Fifteen obsessive-compulsive patients were given treatment consisting of ten sessions of gradual exposure in vivo. For half of the patients gradual exposure in vivo was preceded by self-instructional training.Treatment resulted in significant improvement on anxiety and avoidance scales, Leyton Obsessional Inventory, Self-rating Depression Scale and on ratings for anxious mood and depression. Neither the post-test nor the follow-ups 1 month and 6 months later indicated a difference between the effects of the two conditions. Self-instructional training did not enhance the effectiveness of gradual exposure in vivo.     

An information processing system for the psychiatric emergency room

An information processing system for a psychiatric emergency room is described. Several studies are presented that show the utility of the system. In the first study, variables involved in diagnosis are explicated. The second study attempts to determine the characteristics that distinguish recidivists from nonrecidivists at an emergency room. The third study attempts to find patient variables related to success in short-term treatment programs. The final study is aimed at discovering whether there are psychopathological effects related to the use of inhalants. Together, these studies show the potential of a mental health information system for learning more about the nature of mental disorders and their treatment.     

The linear utility model for optimal selection

A linear utility model is introduced for optimal selection when several subpopulations of applicants are to be distinguished. Using this model, procedures are described for obtaining optimal cutting scores in subpopulations in quota-free as well as quota-restricted selection situations. The cutting scores are optimal in the sense that they maximize the overall expected utility of the selection process. The procedures are demonstrated with empirical data.     

Component analysis of the type A coronary-prone behavior pattern in male and female college students

Two studies investigated the psychological dimensions encompassed by the Rosenman Structured Interview (SI) method of assessing the Type A behavior pattern. In Study 1, female students completed the SI and Jenkins Activity Survey (JAS). Factor analysis of the verbal stylistic and answer content components of the SI yielded a 5-factor solution, with one factor--Clinical Rating--accounting for most nonerror variance in Type A ratings. The remaining factors were derived from answer content and correlated more substantially with JAS Type A ratings than with SI Type A ratings. In Study 2, male and female college students completed the SI and JAS and a battery of questionnaires that tap trait dimensions implied by the conceptual definition of Type A. For both males and females, SI ratings of Type A could almost be completely predicted by scores on the Clinical Rating factor. For both sexes, content dimensions of the SI related to other measures of Type A and to Type A-consistent traits, whereas the Clinical Rating factor was only modestly associated with such traits. Moreover, sex differences were observed in the trait constellations composing SI and JAS definitions of Type A. These results suggest that a discrepancy exists between conceptual and operational definitions of the Type A pattern.