Bayesian Diagnostics of Hidden Markov Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

Cocaine is a type of drug that functions to increase the availability of the neurotransmitter dopamine in the brain. However, cocaine dependence or abuse is highly related to an increased risk of psychiatric disorders and deficits in cognitive performance, attention, and decision-making abilities. Given the chronic and persistent features of drug addiction, the progression of abstaining from cocaine often evolves across several states, such as addiction to, moderate dependence on, and swearing off cocaine. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are well suited to the characterization of longitudinal data in terms of a set of unobservable states, and have increasingly been used to uncover the dynamic heterogeneity in progressive diseases or activities. However, the existence of outliers or influential points may misidentify the hidden states and distort the associated inference. In this study, we develop a Bayesian local influence procedure for HMMs with latent variables in the presence of missing data. The proposed model enables us to investigate the dynamic heterogeneity of multivariate longitudinal data, reveal how the interrelationships among latent variables change from one state to another, and simultaneously conduct statistical diagnosis for the given data, model assumptions, and prior inputs. We apply the proposed procedure to analyze a dataset collected by the UCLA center for advancing longitudinal drug abuse research. Several outliers or influential points that seriously influence estimation results are identified and removed. The proposed procedure also discovers the effects of treatment and individuals’ psychological problems on cocaine use behavior and delineates their dynamic changes across the cocaine-addiction states.     

结构方程在心理学研究中的应用

近年来,在教育、社会及心理学等研究领域,结构方程模型(SEM,Structural Equation Modeling)已成为重要的多变量分析方法,并日益受到广大研究者的重视。本文旨在对SEM作简要概述,并讨论其在心理学研究中的应用,以及在应用过程中应该遵循的标准和需要注意的一些问题。     

我国青少年学生现代化特征认识的比较研究

该研究采用问卷测查的方法,对广州、重庆、兰州等地城乡774名中小学生进行了社会现代化特征的调查.结果表明,我国青少年学生对现代化的理解基本正确,对现代化特征认识的涵盖面比较全面,但对现代化的负面影响缺乏必要的认识.此外,青少年学生的生活环境与教育经历很大程度影响着他们对现代化特征的认识面与着重点.     

铆题比例对等值精度的影响

在非等组铆测验设计中,铆题量占测验长度的多大比例比较合适,这个比例随测验长度的增大可否发生变化？这些是实际工作者和研究者非常关心的问题。该文在固定被试数和测验长度的条件下,探查铆题量所占测验长度比例（简称铆题比例）的变化对等值精度的影响,讨论了在实际等值中如何在等值精度和铆题比例之间取得平衡的问题。并在模拟研究的条件下,给出了几个反应实际等值精度的指标。     

“饮食自然”：道教饮食养生思想浅论

在现代社会,道教的饮食养生文化受到了大众的普遍关注.然而,这不单单是因为道教中积累了大量的可供今人借鉴、利用的饮食方法和技术.实际上,道教的核心饮食养生思想及原则,更彰显出了其永久性的价值和魅力.从某种意义而言,更加清晰、深入地了解道教饮食养生思想内核,并把握其内在的科学精神实质,是进一步把道教饮食养生文化发扬光大的重要前提之一.     

Memory markers: How consumers recall the duration of experiences

In the present article, we propose a three-stage memory marker model of memory for experience. The human mind generates and encodes “memory markers” of specific episodes, stores them in memory, and after a temporal delay retrieves these markers to reconstruct the experience and make relevant judgments. Rich experiences characterized by vivid stimuli seem to pass by quickly, yet feel longer when recalled after a period of time because the number of retrieved memory markers is large. We also examine situations in which key predictions of the memory marker model can be moderated. A field study and five laboratory experiments were conducted to test various aspects of the memory marker model and provide process support.     

动画教学代理对多媒体学习的影响:学习者经验与偏好的调节作用

以往研究发现,动画教学代理对多媒体学习效果的影响不一致,可能受到学习者特征和偏好的调节。本研究以“空调的组成部分及工作原理”为实验材料,采用两个实验控制教学代理有无、经验高低和代理偏好,探讨动画教学代理对多媒体学习的影响。实验1发现与无代理组相比,代理组对教学视频的注视点个数更多,平均眼跳潜伏期更短,学习兴趣也更高;低经验者在代理条件下的迁移成绩更好。实验2发现学习者在偏好代理和非偏好代理条件下的迁移成绩好于无代理组;偏好代理组感知到更低的认知负荷,对总体视频的注视点个数和注视频率更多,平均眼跳潜伏期更短,对学习内容的注视点个数更多。结论认为：在多媒体中加入教学代理不会减少学习者对学习内容的注意,能提高多媒体学习效果,支持社会代理理论假设;教学代理能提高低经验者的学习效果,但对高知识经验者无明显作用;加入学习者偏好的代理形象会促进学习,但加入学习者非偏好的代理形象并没有阻碍学习。     

Matteo Ricci's teaching on the goodness of human nature: its Thomistic and neo-Confucian sources

The Jesuit missionary Matteo Ricci's teaching on the goodness of human nature in The True Meaning of the Lord of Heaven represents the fruit of the first encounter between Catholicism and Confucianism. This article will consider the Thomistic and neo-Confucian sources in Ricci's enunciation of the Catholic doctrine on the goodness of human nature in this Chinese catechism. It will illustrate that Ricci developed his teaching, which is fundamentally Thomistic, with the help of terminology borrowed from the Chinese philosophical tradition. His distinction between the good of nature and the good of virtue leads to prioritising the cultivation of human nature. Ricci's teaching reflects the early modern Jesuits’ appreciation of human freedom. It also displays a Catholic reaction to the sixteenth-century neo-Confucian intellectual trend that ignored the importance of moral cultivation.     

无意识成就目标激活与追求:来自ERP的证据

为探索无意识目标激活的神经机制,采用单因素被试内设计,自变量为目标激活阶段无意识成就目标激活(有、无),因变量为阈下呈现的成就目标相关词(成就目标无关词)出现后所诱发的ERP成分,以及目标追求阶段被试判断两位数加减法算术式的正确率和平均反应时。结果发现:(1)无意识成就目标能够通过阈下启动得以激活;(2)阈下呈现的成就目标相关词诱发了一个明显的N200成分,可能反映了大脑执行控制功能在个体无意识成就目标激活与追求中的重要作用。