Background beliefs in Bayesian inference

We report five experiments in which the role of background beliefs in social judgments of posterior probability was investigated. From a Bayesian perspective, people should combine prior probabilities (or base rates) and diagnostic evidence with equal weighting, although previous research shows that base rates are often underweighted. These experiments were designed so that either piece of information was supplied either by personal beliefs or by presented statistics, and regression analyses were performed on individual participants to assess the relative influence of information. We found that both prior probabilities and diagnostic information significantly influenced judgments, whether supplied by beliefs or by statistical information, but that belief-based information tended to dominate the judgments made.     

Conflict of interest: the importance of potential

The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) takes the issue of conflict of interest very seriously. The overall aim is to preserve a climate in which personal and organisational innovation can flourish while ensuring that potential conflicts are disclosed and identified and conflicts are either avoided or managed with integrity. The approach needs to encompass the MRC’s various responsibilities and the levels at which conflicts might arise: MRC staff (scientists and administrators); the governing Council; research Boards and committees; external peer-reviewers; and applicants for funding. To achieve its goals, the MRC has issued practical guidance on various aspects of conflict of interest. For the future, the MRC has identified the continuing commercialisation of science and the increasing involvement of lay people in scientific decision-making as special challenges in this area. An earlier version of this paper was presented at an International Conference on “Conflict of Interest and its Significance in Science and Medicine” held in Warsaw, Poland on 5–6 April, 2002.     

Cross-cultural differences in tolerance for crowding: fact or fiction?

It is widely believed that cultures vary in their tolerance for crowding. There is, however, little evidence to substantiate this belief, coupled with serious shortcomings in the extant literature. Tolerance for crowding has been confused with cultural differences in personal space preferences along with perceived crowding. Furthermore, the few studies that have examined cultural variability in reactions to crowding have compared subgroup correlations, which is not equivalent to a statistical interaction. Although the authors found a statistical interaction indicating that Asian Americans and Latin Americans differ in the way they perceive crowding in comparison to their fellow Anglo-American and African American citizens, all four ethnic groups suffer similar, negative psychological distress sequelae of high-density housing. These results hold independently of household income.     

Effects of Stimulant Medication Treatment on Mothers' and Children's Attributions for the Behavior of Children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Participants were 55 children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) who were receiving ongoing treatment with stimulant medications and their mothers, and 31 children with ADHD who were beginning stimulant medication and their mothers. Mothers and children offered attributions for child behaviors that occurred when the child was medicated and not medicated. Mothers rated child compliance and prosocial behavior as more global and stable when the child was medicated and rated noncompliance, ADHD symptoms, and oppositional behavior as more externally caused, less global and stable, but more controllable by the child when the child was medicated. Children rated both their compliance and noncompliance as more controllable in the medicated condition. On a forced-choice measure, both mothers and children selected ability, effort, and task attributions for compliance more in the not-medicated condition, and pill-taking attributions more in the medicated condition. This was reversed for noncompliance, which was attributed more to effort, task, or ability in the medicated condition and more to not taking a pill in the not-medicated condition. The potential risks and benefits for parent–child interactions and children's self-perceptions of these medication-related differences in attributions are discussed.     

The experimental psychology of attitude change and the tradition of classical rhetoric

Social psychologists might be surprised to learn that their discipline has been cut off from a vast and ancient family tree. The study of attitude change in the context of experimental social psychology began around 1918. It developed into a defined discipline in the 1930s and 1940s, particularly through the work of Carl Hovland and his associates. Unlike earlier specialties in experimental psychology, social psychology emerged well after the 19th-century split between psychology and philosophy in college curricula. Before this period of growth in empirical teaching and practice, the study of persuasion in classical rhetoric was a bedrock of higher education for more than 2000 years. Because of social psychology's late development in empirical science, there is a historical disconnect between experimental social psychology and its ancient philosophical counterpart, classical rhetoric. This article demonstrates similarities and differences between Hovland's findings and the theoretical groundings of classical rhetoric. We suggest areas where modern social psychology might benefit from a look at the older, more holistic theories of the art of rhetoric.     

Neural mechanisms of affective interference in schizotypy

Negatively valenced stimuli foster cognitive impairment in schizotypy and schizophrenia. To identify relevant brain mechanisms, the authors had 16 positive-schizotypy and 16 control participants perform an emotional Stroop task, judging the ink color of negative and neutral words during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of regional brain activity. Schizotypy individuals showed increased right and decreased left activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, indicating a deficit in maintenance of attentional set in the presence of negative emotional distractors. They also showed abnormal activity in ventral limbic areas, including decreased activity in nucleus accumbens and increased activity in hippocampus and amygdala, a circuit involved in the integration of cognitive and affective processes. These results indicate that aspects of emotion-cognition processes and the brain mechanisms that implement them are similar in schizotypy and schizophrenia.     

The relationship between employee job change and job satisfaction: the honeymoon-hangover effect

Recent research suggests that the turnover process is not fully captured by the traditional sequential model relating job dissatisfaction to subsequent turnover. The present study contributes to this research by modeling within-individual job satisfaction as a function of job change patterns to determine if individual work attitudes change systematically with the temporal turnover process. Specifically, the authors hypothesized that low satisfaction would precede a voluntary job change, with an increase in job satisfaction immediately following a job change (the honeymoon effect), followed by a decline in job satisfaction (the hangover effect). Though this pattern is suggested in the literature, no prior research has integrated and tested this complete temporal model within individuals. Findings based on a sample of managers supported the proposed honeymoon-hangover effect.     

Source-monitoring training: toward reducing rater expectancy effects in behavioral measurement

The authors developed a source-monitoring procedure to reduce the biasing effects of rater expectations on behavioral measurement. Study participants (N = 224) were given positive or negative information regarding the performance of a group and, after observing the group, were assigned to a source-monitoring or control condition. Raters in the source-monitoring condition were instructed to report only behaviors that evoked detailed memories (remember judgments) and to avoid reporting behaviors based on feelings of familiarity (know judgments). Results revealed that controlling raters' response strategy reduced (and often eliminated) the biasing effects of performance expectations. These findings advance our understanding of the performance-cue bias and offer a potentially useful technique for decreasing rater bias.     

Suppositions, extensionality, and conditionals: a critique of the mental model theory of Johnson-Laird And Byrne (2002)

P. N. Johnson-Laird and R. M. J. Byrne proposed an influential theory of conditionals in which mental models represent logical possibilities and inferences are drawn from the extensions of possibilities that are used to represent conditionals. In this article, the authors argue that the extensional semantics underlying this theory is equivalent to that of the material, truth-functional conditional, at least for what they term "basic" conditionals, concerning arbitrary problem content. On the basis of both logical argument and psychological evidence, the authors propose that this approach is fundamentally mistaken and that conditionals must be viewed within a suppositional theory based on what philosophical logicians call the Ramsey test. The Johnson-Laird and Byrne theory is critically examined with respect to its account of basic conditionals, nonbasic conditionals, and counterfactuals.