Should physicians be Bayesian agents?

Because physicians use scientific inference for the generalizations of individual observations and the application of general knowledge to particular situations, the Bayesian probability solution to the problem of induction has been proposed and frequently utilized. Several problems with the Bayesian approach are introduced and discussed. These include: subjectivity, the favoring of a weak hypothesis, the problem of the false hypothesis, the old evidence/new theory problem and the observation that physicians are not currently Bayesians. To the complaint that the prior probability is subjective, Bayesians reply that there will be ultimate convergence, but the rebuttal to this is that there will not be uniform convergence. Secondly, since the Bayesian scheme favors a weak hypothesis, theories turn out to be a gratuitous risk. The problem with the false hypothesis comes out in the denominator of the theorem, revealing that a factor which is not a theory at all is being considered in the reasoning. On the old evidence/new theory problem old evidence cannot confirm a new theory so that the posterior probability will equal the prior probability. Finally, empiric studies have shown that current physicians are not Bayesians. But on consideration of Bayesian inference as a system of inference, it can be reasoned that physicians should be Bayesians. However, the problem of physicians' and patients' own subjectivity continue to plague this system of medical decision making.     

Three-way metric unfolding via alternating weighted least squares

Three-way unfolding was developed by DeSarbo (1978) and reported in DeSarbo and Carroll (1980, 1981) as a new model to accommodate the analysis of two-mode three-way data (e.g., nonsymmetric proximities for stimulus objects collected over time) and three-mode, three-way data (e.g., subjects rendering preference judgments for various stimuli in different usage occasions or situations). This paper presents a revised objective function and new algorithm which attempt to prevent the common type of degenerate solutions encountered in typical unfolding analysis. We begin with an introduction of the problem and a review of three-way unfolding. The three-way unfolding model, weighted objective function, and new algorithm are presented. Monte Carlo work via a fractional factorial experimental design is described investigating the effect of several data and model factors on overall algorithm performance. Finally, three applications of the methodology are reported illustrating the flexibility and robustness of the procedure.We wish to thank the editor and reviewers for their insightful comments.     

PSYCHOLOGY AND HEALTH: CONTRIBUTIONS OF PSYCHOLOGY TO THE IMPROVEMENT OF HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE

Psychology as both a science and a profession has been closely identified with other disciplines in the broad field of health since the turn of the century. Recent advances in health care have reinforced the growing belief that the promotion of health and the prevention and treatment of illness can be greatly enhanced by incorporating the scientific findings and modern technology of psychology into everyday practices. Outlining the contributions of psychology to health care throughout the world is the primary purpose of this report. In this brief survey, only some of the most timely and relevant issues can be mentioned, together with examples of current work in the field. The reader interested in pursuing these psychological contributions more thoroughly is encouraged to review pertinent references from the citations at the end of this report. After an introductory overview, special attention is given to each of the major areas within the broad field of health care where psychological applications have been particularly useful.     

The varieties of fear

Conclusion I shall conclude with a methodological moral. I have tried to show that there are several fundamentally different kinds of fear. One is a pure propositional attitude, one is partially a bodily state, and one is a relation between a person and a nonpropositional object. Other emotions come in similar varieties, such as hope and happiness, but with significant differences. The state of happiness, for example, does not entail any particular bodily state or feeling. So one lesson is this: it is hard to generalize about the emotions. Further detailed, analytical studies of particular emotions are needed before a general theory of the emotions can be fruitfully attempted.     

Modification of Type A behavior through aerobic exercise

This psychophysiological evaluation of an aerobic exercise program examined specifically whether aerobic training modified Pattern A for those individuals at behavioral risk for developing coronary heart disease, i.e., young Type A individuals. At pretest and posttest of this secondary prevention study, Type A and Type B subjects were assessed in three conditions: aerobic exercise program, nonaerobic activity (Aikido, a martial art) control, and notreatment control. After 10 weeks, Type A but not Type B subjects exhibited lower Pattern A behavior in the aerobic program than in control conditions. Average workout pulse rates and differentially reliable increases in aerobic capacity indicated that aerobic training was indeed aerobic, whereas aikido activity was not. Even though selected nonaerobic factors, such as locus of control and group participation, did not mediate the Pattern A decrease for Type A's when comparing aikido and aerobic conditions, changes in aerobic capacity may have been the mediator. Generalizability of the results and implications for theoretical development and clinical intervention are discussed.     

Locus of control,choice, and satisfaction with an assigned task

P. E. Spector's (1982, Psychological Bulletin, 91, 482–497) hypothesis that under conditions of freedom of choice persons characterized by an internal locus of control will experience greater satisfaction with an undesirable task than persons characterized by an external locus of control is considered in light of distinctions between perceived control and perceived choice. Perceived choice is proposed as an intervening variable implicit in Spector's argument. This reasoning was tested with 46 male and female college student participants in a 2 (Choice) × 2 (Locus of Control) factorial design experiment. An interaction of Choice × Locus of Control on task satisfaction was obtained such that internals tended to be more satisfied when given a choice while externals experienced greater satisfaction when not given a choice. The implications of this result for Spector' hypothesis and for the manner in which undesirable work is assigned are discussed.     

Constrained classification: The use of a priori information in cluster analysis

In many classification problems, one often possesses external and/or internal information concerning the objects or units to be analyzed which makes it appropriate to impose constraints on the set of allowable classifications and their characteristics. CONCLUS, or CONstrained CLUStering, is a new methodology devised to perform constrained classification in either an overlapping or nonoverlapping (hierarchical or nonhierarchial) manner. This paper initially reviews the related classification literature. A discussion of the use of constraints in clustering problems is then presented. The CONCLUS model and algorithm are described in detail, as well as their flexibility for use in various applications. Monte Carlo results are presented for two synthetic data sets with appropriate discussion of the resulting implications. An illustration of CONCLUS is presented with respect to a sales territory design problem where the objects classified are various Forbes-500 companies. Finally, the discussion section highlights the main contribution of the paper and offers some areas for future research.We wish to thank C. Mallows and J. D. Carroll for some helpful technical discussion and L. Clark and D. Art for their valuable computer assistance. We also wish to thank H. Pollak, R. Gnanadesikan, and J. Kettenring for their thorough reviews of a previous draft of this paper. Finally, we acknowledge helpful comments of the editor and two anonymous reviewers.     

Detection of words versus good old counting: A note on Mizrahi and Dickinson, “The analytic-continental divide in philosophical practice”

In a recent Metaphilosophy article, Moti Mizrahi and Michael Dickinson argue against characterizing the divide between analytical and continental philosophy as a divide in the use of arguments. This hypothesis is rejected on the basis of a text-mining approach. The present paper argues that the results they extracted do not answer the questions they set out to answer as well as would have been possible. This is due to Mizrahi and Dickinson's choice to disregard duplicate occurrences of argument word pairs, their main indicator for the occurrence of arguments in articles. This paper reconstructs their method by now also counting duplicates. A small corpus (n = 436) of recent (2015–2021) analytical and continental articles is used to rerun the experiment; the results oppose Mizrahi and Dickinson's and suggest that arguments (as operationalized by Mizrahi and Dickinson) occur more in analytical articles. The paper argues that part of the discrepancy derives from the specific methodological choices they made.     

Rehearsal grouping and hierarchical organization of serial position cues in short-term memory

Lists of 8, 9, or 10 digits were presented at the rate of 1 digit/sec. to subjects instructed to rehearse silently the digits in non-overlapping groups of 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 digits, after hearing each digit. Subjects were instructed not to rehearse any digits outside the group currently being presented. Rehearsing in 3's was optimal, irrespective of list length. Both recall of items and recall of the correct positions of items improved from 1's to 2's to 3's. Recall of items declined very little from 3's to 4's to 5's, but recall of position declined sharply. Errors in positioning digits tended, above chance, to be in the same group or the same position in a different group. The results suggest that both item-to-item associations and serial positin-to-item associations are formed in short-term memory, that only two or three serial position cues are used, but that these serial position cues can be hierarchically organized into a beginning, middle, and end group and a beginning, middle, and end position within a group.