Betting on transitivity in probabilistic causal chains

Causal reasoning is crucial to people’s decision making in probabilistic environments. It may rely directly on data about covariation between variables (correspondence) or on inferences based on reasonable constraints if larger causal models are constructed based on local relations (coherence). For causal chains an often assumed constraint is transitivity. For probabilistic causal relations, mismatches between such transitive inferences and direct empirical evidence may lead to distortions of empirical evidence. Previous work has shown that people may use the generative local causal relations A → B and B → C to infer a positive indirect relation between events A and C, despite data showing that these events are actually independent (von Sydow et al. in Proceedings of the thirty-first annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2009, Proceedings of the 32nd annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2010, Mem Cogn 44(3):469–487, 2016). Here we used a sequential learning scenario to investigate how transitive reasoning in intransitive situations with negatively related distal events may relate to betting behavior. In three experiments participants bet as if they were influenced by a transitivity assumption, even when the data strongly contradicted transitivity.     

Testing Event-Based Forms of Causality

Three fundamental types of causal relations are those of necessity, sufficiency, and necessity and sufficiency. These types are defined in contexts of categorical variables or events. Using statement calculus or Boolean algebra, one can determine which patterns of events are in support of a particular form of causal relation. In this article, we approach the analysis of these forms of causality taking the perspective of the analyst of empirical data. It is proposed using Configural Frequency Analysis (CFA) to test hypotheses about type of causal relation. Models are proposed for two-variable and multi-variable cases. Two CFA approaches are proposed. In the first, individual patterns (configurations) are examined under the question whether they are in support of a particular type of causal relation. In the second, patterns that are in support are compared with corresponding patterns that are not in support. In an empirical example, hypotheses are tested on the prediction of sustainability of change in dietary fat intake habits.     

Gender Specificity of Children’s Narrative Representations in Predicting Depressive Symptoms at Early School Age

Our longitudinal study contributes to the body of literature on depression in childhood by examining potential protective factors. We investigated the influence of maternal depressive symptoms on child depressive symptoms at early school age and its gender-specific moderation by children’s narrative representations of the maternal figure, over and above children’s own depressive symptoms at preschool age. Children’s narrative representations were assessed using the MacArthur Story Stem Battery in 170 preschool children (92 girls; 54.1?%) oversampled for internalizing symptoms. Children’s depressive symptoms were assessed at preschool age (Time 1; 4–6 years) and at early school age (Time 2; 6–8 years) by maternal report; mothers’ depressive symptoms were assessed at Time 1. The results showed that for boys, only their own depressive symptoms at Time 1 predicted their depressive symptoms at Time 2. For girls, maternal depressive symptoms were a significant risk factor for their own depressive symptoms at Time 2. Regarding this association, we also found a moderation effect: girls with more positive narrative representations of the maternal figure showed a reduced negative impact of maternal depressive symptoms on their own depressive symptoms at Time 2. This implies that clinical practice should screen a child for early depressive symptoms, especially if the mother displays depressive symptoms. Clinicians might also assess children’s inner working models, which can serve as a protective factor.     

Parental capacities for triadic relationships during pregnancy: Early predictors of children's behavioral and representational functioning at preschool age

This study examines associations between parental capacities for triadic (mother–father–child) relationships, assessed prenatally, and the representational and behavioral functioning of their offspring at preschool age. Thirty‐eight parental couples were given an intensive psychodynamic interview during their first pregnancy to assess how they anticipated their future parenthood and their relationships as threesomes (mother–father–child). The capacity for triadic relationships (“triadic capacity”) was defined as the capacity of fathers and mothers to anticipate their family relationships without excluding either themselves or their partners from the relationship with the infant. Four years later, the representational and behavioral functioning of their children were assessed in depth using child narrative interviews and parental behavior ratings. The coherence of the children's narratives and the number of positive themes they expressed were significantly negatively correlated with the number of behavioral problems. In the longitudinal analyses, there were significant positive correlations between the parental triadic capacities and the coherence/number of positive themes in the children's narratives whereas parental triadic capacities showed a significant negative correlation with the number of the children's externalizing problems. The significance of triadic relational family processes for the development of children's representational world and behavioral functioning is discussed. ©2005 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.     

Constructing a Jewish Feminist Theology of the Holocaust

The Female Face of God in Auschwitz: A Jewish Feminist Theology of the Holocaust , Melissa Raphael, Routledge 2003 (0-415-23665-7) pp. xii + 228, Pb. £18.99     

A behavior-based circuit model of how outcome expectations organize learned behavior in larval Drosophila

Drosophila larvae combine a numerically simple brain, a correspondingly moderate behavioral complexity, and the availability of a rich toolbox for transgenic manipulation. This makes them attractive as a study case when trying to achieve a circuit-level understanding of behavior organization. From a series of behavioral experiments, we suggest a circuitry of chemosensory processing, odor-tastant memory trace formation, and the "decision" process to behaviorally express these memory traces--or not. The model incorporates statements about the neuronal organization of innate vs. conditioned chemosensory behavior, and the types of interaction between olfactory and gustatory pathways during the establishment as well as the behavioral expression of odor-tastant memory traces. It in particular suggests that innate olfactory behavior is responsive in nature, whereas conditioned olfactory behavior is captured better when seen as an action in pursuit of its outcome. It incorporates the available neuroanatomical and behavioral data and thus should be useful as scaffold for the ongoing investigations of the chemo-behavioral system in larval Drosophila.     

Visuo-spatial path learning,stress, and cortisol secretion following military cadets’ first parachute jump: the effect of increasing task complexity

The present field experiment examined how multi-trial visuo-spatial learning and memory performance are impacted by excessive arousal, instigated by a potentially life-threatening event (i.e., a first parachute jump). Throughout a parachute training activity, subjective and neuroendocrine (i.e., cortisol) stress levels were assessed of 61 male military cadets who were randomly assigned to a control (n = 30) or a jump stress condition (n = 31). Post-stress learning and memory capacity was assessed with a 10-trial path-learning task that permitted emergence of learning curves. Pre-activity cortisol concentrations indicated a significant neuroendocrine anticipatory stress response in the stress group. Following parachuting, subjective stress levels and salivary cortisol reactivity differed significantly between groups. Visuo-spatial path-learning performance was impaired significantly after jump stress exposure, relative to the control group. Moreover, examination of the learning curves showed similar learning and memory performance at onset of the trials, with curves bifurcating as the task became more complex. These findings are in accordance with leading theories that acknowledge a moderating effect of task complexity. In sum, the present study extends knowledge concerning anticipatory stress effects, endogenously instigated cortisol reactivity, and the influence of extreme arousal on visuo-spatial path learning.     

Religion in a private igloo? A critical dialogue with Richard Rorty

It is still a popular philosophical position to call for a strict “separationism” concerning the private and the public sphere when it comes to religious convictions. Richard Rorty is one prominent supporter of this claim. The traditional critique against this division is mostly built on a particular characterization of religion that is at odds with Rortian assumptions. In this article, however, Rorty is criticized on his own terms turning pragmatically the objection to a fully internal one. What Rorty values most, namely a tolerant and ironic liberalism as the capacity to describe oneself in new and interesting ways is precisely the role, I argue, that religious faith could play under “neo-liberal” conditions.