How is the asymmetry between the open future and the fixed past to be characterized?

Synthese - A basic intuition we have regarding the nature of time is that the future is open whereas the past is fixed. For example, whereas we think that there are things we can do to affect how...     

A Nondegenerate Penalized Likelihood Estimator for Variance Parameters in Multilevel Models

Group-level variance estimates of zero often arise when fitting multilevel or hierarchical linear models, especially when the number of groups is small. For situations where zero variances are implausible a priori, we propose a maximum penalized likelihood approach to avoid such boundary estimates. This approach is equivalent to estimating variance parameters by their posterior mode, given a weakly informative prior distribution. By choosing the penalty from the log-gamma family with shape parameter greater than 1, we ensure that the estimated variance will be positive. We suggest a default log-gamma(2,λ) penalty with λ→0, which ensures that the maximum penalized likelihood estimate is approximately one standard error from zero when the maximum likelihood estimate is zero, thus remaining consistent with the data while being nondegenerate. We also show that the maximum penalized likelihood estimator with this default penalty is a good approximation to the posterior median obtained under a noninformative prior. Our default method provides better estimates of model parameters and standard errors than the maximum likelihood or the restricted maximum likelihood estimators. The log-gamma family can also be used to convey substantive prior information. In either case—pure penalization or prior information—our recommended procedure gives nondegenerate estimates and in the limit coincides with maximum likelihood as the number of groups increases.     

Playing with deviance: Typicality assessments of ingroup members as a strategy of outgroup approach

In two experiments, we analyzed the use of intra‐group differentiation between normative and deviant members as an identity mobilization strategy in intergroup negotiations. Because ingroup members sometimes try to obtain the support of outgroup audiences to attain their goals, we propose that in intergroup negotiations, people attempt to minimize the distinction between the parties involved by changing the appraisal of deviance and including deviant members in the ingroup's prototype. In line with this hypothesis, differences in the assessment of typicality between normative and deviant targets were reduced in instrumental intergroup negotiation contexts. Furthermore, we explored a boundary condition for this effect and found that such outgroup approach is disrupted when threats taint the intergroup negotiation context. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationships Among Selected Tests of Spatial Orientation Ability

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationships between selected tests of spatial orientation ability. 2 tests which have been used as predictors of spatial ability (Guilford-Zimmerman Aptitude Survey, Parts V and VI) plus 2 newly developed tests designed to measure that ability were given to 202 Junior high school boys aged 11-15 yr. 3 of these tests were of the paper and pencil type while one was a physical performance (tumbling) test. The paper-and-pencil tests correlated significantly with each other (.62, .61, .44) but the physical performance test did not correlate significantly with any of the other tests.     

Verbal Implicit Sequence Learning in Persons Who Stutter and Persons With Parkinson's Disease

The authors investigated the integrity of implicit learning systems in 14 persons with Parkinson's disease (PPD), 14 persons who stutter (PWS), and 14 control participants. In a 120-min session participants completed a verbal serial reaction time task, naming aloud 4 syllables in response to 4 visual stimuli. Unbeknownst to participants, the syllables formed a repeating 8-item sequence. PWS and PPD demonstrated slower reaction times for early but not late learning trials relative to controls reflecting delays but not deficiencies in general learning. PPD also demonstrated less accuracy in general learning relative to controls. All groups demonstrated similar limited explicit sequence knowledge. Both PWS and PPD demonstrated significantly less implicit sequence learning relative to controls, suggesting that stuttering may be associated with compromised functional integrity of the cortico-striato-thalamo-cortical loop.