Dyadic decisions with numerical and verbal probabilities

The goal of the research was to compare decisions under risk in a situation in which forecasters (F) communicate to decision makers (DM) either numerically (e.g., .70) or verbally (e.g., likely) about the chances that a binary event will occur. Following each forecast, the DM bid for a winning or losing lottery based on the event. In Experiment 1 Fs and DMs also provided numerical translations of each verbal forecast after the DMs' bid. In Experiment 2 the DMs provided membership functions over the [0, 1] interval for each phrase used by the Fs. The primary results were: (a) extreme similarity in the DM's bids and rates of bidding under the two modes of communication; (b) greater variability in bids to specific verbal than numerical forecasts; (c) a pattern of bids, in which DMs demonstrated risk seeking for gains and risk neutrality for losses; (d) DMs' numerical translations in Experiment 1 were closer to .50 than were those of Fs; and (e) phrases selected by Fs had high membership values to DMs for the probabilities the Fs were attempting to describe. Points (a), (b), (d), and (e) are consistent with the ν-μ model which assumes that the vague meaning of a probability phrase can be represented by a membership function over the [0, 1] interval, and that in reaching a decision the DM focuses on a range of probabilities with sufficiently high membership. Point (c) is speculatively attributed to social aspects of the dyadic situation, and requires further investigation.     

Correlates of age at first sexual intercourse in a national sample of young women

A subsample of 814 sexually experienced adolescent females from the 1979 U.S. National Survey of Young Women was analyzed to assess the correlates of age at 1st sexual intercourse. Multiple regression procedures were used to examine sets of variables sequentially. In the hierarchical regression model, the control variables (respondent's age, race, religion, and age at menarche), along with 3 independent variables (household income, ideal age at 1st marriage, and ideal age for 1st birth), predicted age at 1st intercourse. The control variables accounted for a major portion of the variance in the model. Of the controls, chronological age and age at menarche were highly significant across all models tested.     

Overt integrity tests versus personality-based measures of delinquency: An empirical comparis

Erratum

Overt integrity tests versus personality-based measures of delinquency: An empirical comparis     

Tachistoscopic exposure of real objects for measurement of reaction time and movement time

In this paper, we describe an apparatus for measuring reaction times and movement times involved in reaching for real objects. Subjects view an object through a liquid crystal window, which serves as a shutter that can be made clear or opaque quickly (10 msec from opaque to clear, 30 msec from clear to opaque). The subject’s hand rests on a microswitch-equipped home key, and the object sits on a force-sensitive platform so that initiation of reach and time of contact with the object can be marked accurately. The apparatus interfaces with an IBM PC/AT through a digital I/O parallel port, so that reaction times and movement times are recorded automatically.     

THE WILL ROGERS ILLUSION IN JUDGMENTS ABOUT SOCIAL GROUPS

Abstract— Subjects' judgments of the mean of 12 scores were influenced by the way in which the scores were dichotomized. The estimated mean was higher when the three highest scores formed one group (e.g., payments for women) and the nine lowest formed the other (e.g., payments for men) than when the nine highest were one group and the three lowest the other. We call this phenomenon the Will Rogers Illusion (WRI). The WRI occurred only when estimates of the subgroup means were made prior to the estimates of the mean of the whole group. When the latter mean was judged first, the WRI was reversed. These and other data indicate that the means of subgroups can influence judgments of group means, a finding that is relevant to research on social stereotypes.