Empirical underidentification in estimating random utility models: The role of choice sets and standardizations

A standard approach to distinguishing people’s risk preferences is to estimate a random utility model using a power utility function to characterize the preferences and a logit function to capture choice consistency. We demonstrate that with often-used choice situations, this model suffers from empirical underidentification, meaning that parameters cannot be estimated precisely. With simulations of estimation accuracy and Kullback–Leibler divergence measures we examined factors that potentially mitigate this problem. First, using a choice set that guarantees a switch in the utility order between two risky gambles in the range of plausible values leads to higher estimation accuracy than randomly created choice sets or the purpose-built choice sets common in the literature. Second, parameter estimates are regularly correlated, which contributes to empirical underidentification. Examining standardizations of the utility scale, we show that they mitigate this correlation and additionally improve the estimation accuracy for choice consistency. Yet, they can have detrimental effects on the estimation accuracy of risk preference. Finally, we also show how repeated versus distinct choice sets and an increase in observations affect estimation accuracy. Together, these results should help researchers make informed design choices to estimate parameters in the random utility model more precisely.     

Associations between symptoms of maternal postpartum depression,gestational age and infant social withdrawal: A longitudinal study in a community cohort

Infant social withdrawal is a risk factor for non-optimal child development; thus, it is important to identify risk factors associated with withdrawal. In a large community sample (N = 19,017), we investigate whether symptoms of maternal and partner postpartum depression (PPD; measured with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale) and prematurity are predictors of infant social withdrawal (measured with the Alarm Distress Baby Scale). Withdrawal was assessed at 2–3, 4–7 and 8–12 months postpartum. Linear regressions showed that prematurity predicted higher infant social withdrawal at all time points, and maternal symptoms of PPD were positively associated with withdrawal at 2–3 months. Logistic regressions showed that odds for elevated social withdrawal were increased with elevated levels of maternal symptoms of PPD at 2–3 and 8–12 months. Partner's symptoms of PPD were not associated with withdrawal. Future studies should investigate how PPD symptoms and prematurity may impact the individual development of social withdrawal.     

Psychological Maltreatment,Social Acceptance,Social Connectedness,and Subjective Well-Being in Adolescents

Psychological maltreatment is a dramatically increasing problem and related to a wide range of short-term and long-term outcomes. Considering these potential effects of it on healthy development and well-being, it is important to understand the mitigating factors for its negative effects on well-being from childhood to adulthood. Therefore, the purpose of present study is to investigate the mediation role of social acceptance and social connectedness on the effect of psychological maltreatment on subjective well-being in high school adolescents. The sample consisted of 825 students enrolled in grades 9–12 in two public schools in a small urban city in Turkey. The participants were 46.2% male and 53.8% female and ranged in age from 14 to 19 years old (M = 16.508, SD = 1.163). Findings from the structural model indicated that psychological maltreatment was a negative and significant predictor of social connectedness and social acceptance, yet did not significantly predict youth subjective well-being. Further, social acceptance and social connectedness were significant and positive predictors of subjective well-being. Finally, results showed that social acceptance and social connectedness fully mediated the relationship between psychological maltreatment and subjective well-being. Taken together, these outcomes support the importance of social connectedness and social acceptance on adolescents’ wellbeing, and these psychosocial resources help to explain the association between psychological maltreatment and subjective well-being. Results are discussed in light of the literature, and suggestions are presented for professions as well as for future research.     

Decision deadlines and uncertainty monitoring: the effect of time constraints on uncertainty and perceptual responses

The behavioral uncertainty response has grounded the study of animal metacognition and influenced the study of human psychophysics. However, the interpretation of this response is debated—especially whether it is a behavioral index of metacognition. The authors advanced this interpretation using the dissociative technique of response deadlines. Uncertainty responding, if it is higher level or metacognitive, should depend on a slower, more controlled decisional process and be more vulnerable to time constraints. Humans performed sparse–uncertain–dense or sparse–middle–dense discriminations in which, respectively, they could decline difficult trials or positively identify middle stimuli. Uncertainty responses were sharply and selectively reduced under a decision deadline, as compared to primary perceptual responses (i.e., “sparse,” “middle,” and “dense” responses). This dissociation suggests that the uncertainty response does reflect a higher-level, decisional response. It grants the uncertainty response a distinctive psychological role in its task and encourages an interpretation of this response as an elemental behavioral index of uncertainty that deserves continuing research.     

Differences in eye-movement patterns between anorexic and control observers when judging body size and attractiveness

Attentional biases may influence the eye-movements made when judging bodies and so alter the visual information sampled when making a judgment. This may lead to an overestimation of body size. We measured the eye-movements made by 16 anorexic observers and 16 age-matched controls when judging body size and attractiveness. We combined behavioural data with a novel eye-movement analysis technique that allowed us to apply spatial statistical techniques to make fine spatial discriminations in the pattern of eye-movements between our observer groups. Our behavioural results show that anorexic observers overestimate body size relative to controls and find bodies with lower body mass indexes more attractive. For both judgments, the controls' fixations centre on the stomach, but the anorexic observers show a much wider fixation pattern extending to encompass additional features such as the prominence of the hip and collar bones. This additional visual information may serve to alter their behavioural judgments towards an overestimation of body size and shift their ideal body size towards a significantly lower value.