Dyadic decisions with numerical and verbal probabilities

The goal of the research was to compare decisions under risk in a situation in which forecasters (F) communicate to decision makers (DM) either numerically (e.g., .70) or verbally (e.g., likely) about the chances that a binary event will occur. Following each forecast, the DM bid for a winning or losing lottery based on the event. In Experiment 1 Fs and DMs also provided numerical translations of each verbal forecast after the DMs' bid. In Experiment 2 the DMs provided membership functions over the [0, 1] interval for each phrase used by the Fs. The primary results were: (a) extreme similarity in the DM's bids and rates of bidding under the two modes of communication; (b) greater variability in bids to specific verbal than numerical forecasts; (c) a pattern of bids, in which DMs demonstrated risk seeking for gains and risk neutrality for losses; (d) DMs' numerical translations in Experiment 1 were closer to .50 than were those of Fs; and (e) phrases selected by Fs had high membership values to DMs for the probabilities the Fs were attempting to describe. Points (a), (b), (d), and (e) are consistent with the ν-μ model which assumes that the vague meaning of a probability phrase can be represented by a membership function over the [0, 1] interval, and that in reaching a decision the DM focuses on a range of probabilities with sufficiently high membership. Point (c) is speculatively attributed to social aspects of the dyadic situation, and requires further investigation.     

Persuasion criteria in research and practice: Gathering more meaningful psychotherapy data

Psychotherapy research should ultimately benefit the psychotherapy client. Unfortunately, traditional psychotherapy research continues to have little influence on practicing clinicians and, therefore, does not benefit psychotherapy clients. As behavior analysts begin to show interest in this area of research, they may be in a position to improve its quality. We argue that traditional psychotherapy researchers have become prematurely wedded to a methodology that does not address the concerns of clinical audiences. Furthermore, we make a case for defining and evaluating psychotherapy data in terms of its capacity to influence both researchers and clinicians. We also suggest several alternative methods for gathering psychotherapy data based on the case formulation approach. We argue that this approach may be one of the most promising methods for gathering useful psychotherapy data.     

Live supervision in the postmodern era of family therapy: Issues,reflections, and questions

This article asserts that the family therapy field is approaching an epistemological shift from structuralism and positivism to postmodernism and relativism. The confluence of these movements: feminism, constructivism/constructionism, and cultural relativism is cited as a major impetus for the shift. Live supervision is examined within the context of this transformation, with a discussion of implications for the future.     

Menarche: A crossroads that previews developmental change

In recent years the developmental implications of menarche have garnered particular attention. Investigators have determined that this developmental event tends to affect three significant domains of the adolescent girl's function: psychological status, relationships with peers, and role in the family. This paper explores these issues and introduces a new technique, referred to as previewing, that may help the teenage girl acclimate to the status of sexual maturity. Derived from the early life interactions of caregiver and infant, previewing promotes representational skills and enhances self-esteem as the adolescent confronts developmental challenges.     

Parental alcohol consumption and postneonatal mortality

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of maternal and paternal alcohol consumption as independent risk factors in postneonatal mortality. Questions on the frequency and quantity of alcoholic drinks consumed were included in a questionnaire used as part of a case-control study. Over a period of 11 months the families of 157 cases and 468 controls, matched for age and locality, were interviewed. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained by matched univariate analysis and by multiple conditional logistic regression. Maternal consumption during pregnancy, maternal consumption during breastfeeding and maternal consumption in the past year were not risk factors for postneonatal mortality. A multiple matched analysis did not alter these results. Matched univariate analysis of paternal alcohol consumption gave several positive results, including variables pertaining to the father's consumption in a multiple logistic regression model with traditional risk factors, which revealed that the frequency of paternal consumption in the last year, as estimated by the mother, was found to have a significant effect on postneonatal mortality.     

Development of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center policy for the care of terminally ill patients who may become organ donors after death following the removal of life support

In the mid 1980s it was apparent that the need for organ donors exceeded those willing to donate. Some University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) physicians initiated discussion of possible new organ donor categories including individuals pronounced dead by traditional cardiac criteria. However, they reached no conclusion and dropped the discussion. In the late 1980s and the early 1990s, four cases arose in which dying patients or their families requested organ donation following the elective removal of mechanical ventilation. Controversy surrounding these cases precipitated open discussion of the use of organ donors pronounced dead on the basis of cardiac criteria. Prolonged deliberations by many committees in the absence of precedent ultimately resulted in what is, to our knowledge, the country's first policy for organ donation following elective removal of life support. The policy is intricate and conservative. Care was taken to include as many interested parties as possible in an effort to achieve representative and broad based support. This paper describes the development of the UPMC policy on non-heart-beating organ donation.     

Infant use of relative motion as information for form: Evidence for spatiotemporal integration of complex motion displays

Previous studies of infants’ ability to integrate and to utilize relative motion as information for form in the absence of structural cues have primarily involved motions that are uniform in rate, direction, and path within the form to be constructed. In the present study, we examined infants’ ability to integrate relative motion information from motions that are nonuniform along these dimensions, and from this integrative process to construct a coherently rotating two-dimensional form. Infants’ ability to integrate nonuniform motion was measured with regard to their ability to discriminate the rotating form from a noncoherent control display containing the same absolute motions. The results showed that discrimination of the coherent and incoherent displays was not demonstrated until 7 months of age. Two additional experiments were conducted to rule out the possibility that this discrimination was based on the detection of local regions of coherence, rather than the perception of the global rotating form. In both experiments, the results did not support discrimination based exclusively on local cues alone. From the combined results of all three experiments, we conclude that infants demonstrate the capacity to integrate the information contained within nonuniform trajectories into a coherent structure by 7 months of age.     

The Horsley gantt medal address October 11, 1992

The concept of systemic quantization of behavior was used to study the interaction between dominant motivation and reinforcement on brain neurons. Feeding and escape were used as experimental models. Results showed that feeding and escape motivations are based on the mechanisms of ascending activating influences of lateral or ventromedial hypothalamic centers, respectively, on cortical neurons. Feeding and escape motivations evoked by electrical stimulation of hypothalamus, or the ones occurring naturally, modify the responses of single neurons of sensorimotor and insular cortex to sensory stimuli, to microiontophoretic application of neurotransmitters and neuropeptides, and especially to reinforcement. Dominant motivations are reflected in the burst-like activity and in a specific pattern of interpulse intervals of single units in various brain structures. Reinforcement transforms this activity into a regular pattern and also changes the neuronal responses of hypothalamic feeding and escape centers, to electrical stimulation and to microiontophoretic application of oligopeptides. Specific patterns of the unit responses to conditioned stimuli in the course of consecutive reinforcement was determined. After several instances of reinforcement, especially after repetitive reinforcement, the brain neurons influenced by the dominant motivation begin to produce specific protein molecules that are important for organization of an appropriate type of behavior. This process can be blocked by protein synthesis inhibitors.