Zur Validit?t des Prognoseinstruments ?Rückfallrisiko bei Sexualstraft?tern“

The Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders (RRS) procedure is an actuarial risk assessment tool designed to predict recidivism in sexual offenders released from prison. So far it is the only tool developed with a German sample and uses a combination of 11 static and dynamic risk markers. The goal of the current study was to test the predictive validity of the 3 RRS prognostic scores in a sample of 104 sexual offenders whose prison files and recidivism data were analysed after a mean period of 8 years after release from a German prison. The H-score of the RRS developed to assess the probability of reimprisonment showed moderate to good predictive power in relation to any new convictions, new convictions leading to a prison term and new convictions for an aggressive or sexual criminal offence. As expected it was not able to predict sexual recidivism which had a base rate of 8.7% in this sample. The S-score and the K-score of the RRS developed to predict this criterion, performed hardly better in this task. These scores showed moderate to good predictive validity only in the small subsample of extrafamilial sexual offenders.     

Trial-by-trial updating of an internal reference in discrimination tasks: Evidence from effects of stimulus order and trial sequence

In psychophysics, participants are often asked to discriminate between a constant standard and a variable comparison. Previous studies have shown that discrimination performance is better when the comparison follows, rather than precedes, the standard. Prominent difference models of psychophysics and decision making cannot easily explain this order effect. However, a simple extension of this model class involving dynamical updating of an internal reference accounts for this order effect. In addition, this Internal Reference Model (IRM) predicts sequential response effects. We examined the predictions of IRM in two duration discrimination experiments. The obtained results are in agreement with the predictions of IRM, suggesting that participants update their internal reference on every trial. Additional simulations show that IRM also accounts for the negative sequential effects observed in single-stimulus paradigms.     

Implizites Beziehungswissen

Implicit relational knowing is for the most part procedural implicit knowing. Implicit relational knowing operates outside verbal experience and is mostly expressed in actions and constitutes the ‘how’ of being with others. Interpersonal relationships develop step by step and even subtle behavioral means can be a step. A subsequent step documents how the person interprets the preceding behavior of the other person. According to the Boston Change Process Study Group (BCPSG), implicit relational knowing can change with increasing integration and coherence in the therapeutic process. This enables the patient to bring into the therapeutic relationship even difficult and affectively charged experiences which thus become “relationable” for the patient.     

Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of process models of hindsight bias can be measured. Therefore, we used it to put the recently proposed RAFT model (Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, 2000) to another test. Our findings were consistent with the "expertise effect." Specifically, we observed--using computer simulations of the RAFT model--that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias. In addition, we made two counterintuitive observations: First, the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed. Second, even if foresight knowledge is false, it can reduce hindsight bias. We conclude with a discussion of the functional value of hindsight bias.     

Attending to objects: Endogenous cues can produce inhibition of return

Inhibition of Return (IOR) is effective in a wide range of experimental settings but has proven elusive under conditions of volitional (endogenous) attentional control. This result may be due to a continuing attentional bias towards the cued location. Here we ask whether IOR can be unmasked under endogenous cueing conditions when a predictive cue prevents such a bias. In Experiment 1, a central arrow directed attention endogenously to one end of a rectangular object. Attention initially radiated to an unpredicted location in the object but IOR later impaired target detection at that location. In Experiment 2, attention was directed endogenously to a dynamic object. While target detection was facilitated at a subsequent (and predicted) location of the rotating object, detection-latencies at its original location were slowed. Together the results show that it is possible to produce IOR using endogenous cues.     

Doubly-Latent Models of School Contextual Effects: Integrating Multilevel and Structural Equation Approaches to Control Measurement and Sampling Error

This article is a methodological-substantive synergy. Methodologically, we demonstrate latent-variable contextual models that integrate structural equation models (with multiple indicators) and multilevel models. These models simultaneously control for and unconfound measurement error due to sampling of items at the individual (L1) and group (L2) levels and sampling error due the sampling of persons in the aggregation of L1 characteristics to form L2 constructs. We consider a set of models that are latent or manifest in relation to sampling items (measurement error) and sampling of persons (sampling error) and discuss when different models might be most useful. We demonstrate the flexibility of these 4 core models by extending them to include random slopes, latent (single-level or cross-level) interactions, and latent quadratic effects.

Substantively we use these models to test the big-fish-little-pond effect (BFLPE), showing that individual student levels of academic self-concept (L1-ASC) are positively associated with individual level achievement (L1-ACH) and negatively associated with school-average achievement (L2-ACH)—a finding with important policy implications for the way schools are structured. Extending tests of the BFLPE in new directions, we show that the nonlinear effects of the L1-ACH (a latent quadratic effect) and the interaction between gender and L1-ACH (an L1 × L1 latent interaction) are not significant. Although random-slope models show no significant school-to-school variation in relations between L1-ACH and L1-ASC, the negative effects of L2-ACH (the BFLPE) do vary somewhat with individual L1-ACH.

We conclude with implications for diverse applications of the set of latent contextual models, including recommendations about their implementation, effect size estimates (and confidence intervals) appropriate to multilevel models, and directions for further research in contextual effect analysis.     

Modal property comprehension

To define new property terms, we combine already familiar predicates by means of certain logical operations. Given suitable constraints, these operations may presumably include truth-functional sentence connectives and quantification over objects. What is less clear is whether we can also use modal operators for this purpose. The aim of this paper is to clarify what is involved in this question, and to argue in favor of modal property definitions.     

The function of regressions in reading: Backward eye movements allow rereading

Standard text reading involves frequent eye movements that go against normal reading order. The function of these “regressions” is still largely unknown. The most obvious explanation is that regressions allow for the rereading of previously fixated words. Alternatively, physically returning the eyes to a word’s location could cue the reader’s memory for that word, effectively aiding the comprehension process via location priming (the “deictic pointer hypothesis”). In Experiment 1, regression frequency was reduced when readers knew that information was no longer available for rereading. In Experiment 2, readers listened to auditorily presented text while moving their eyes across visual placeholders on the screen. Here, rereading was impossible, but deictic pointers remained available, yet the readers did not make targeted regressions in this experiment. In Experiment 3, target words in normal sentences were changed after reading. Where the eyes later regressed to these words, participants generally remained unaware of the change, and their answers to comprehension questions indicated that the new meaning of the changed word was what determined their sentence representations. These results suggest that readers use regressions to reread words and not to cue their memory for previously read words.     

Gender differences in the mean level,variability, and profile shape of student achievement: Results from 41 countries

A domain-specific hierarchical conceptualization of mathematics achievement can be represented by the standard psychometric model in which a single latent dimension accounts for observed individual differences in scores on the respective subdomains (e.g., quantity). Alternatively, a fully hierarchical conceptualization of achievement can be represented by a nested-factor model in which individual differences in subdomain-specific scores are explained by both general student achievement and specific mathematics achievement. The authors applied both models to study the gender similarity hypothesis, the greater male variability hypothesis, and the masking hypothesis, which predicts that gender differences in general student achievement mask gender differences in both the means and the variability of specific mathematics achievement. Representative data were obtained from 275,369 15-year-old students in 41 countries. The results supported these hypotheses in most countries, demonstrating that a fully hierarchical conceptualization of achievement in terms of the nested-factor model significantly contributes to a better understanding of gender differences in the mean level, variability, and shape of students' achievement profiles.