Hindsight bias: how knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of process models of hindsight bias can be measured. Therefore, we used it to put the recently proposed RAFT model (Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, 2000) to another test. Our findings were consistent with the "expertise effect." Specifically, we observed-using computer simulations of the RAFT model-that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias. In addition, we made two counterintuitive observations: First, the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed. Second, even if foresight knowledge is false, it can reduce hindsight bias. We conclude with a discussion of the functional value of hindsight bias.     

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The surface—weight illusion: On the contribution of grip force to perceived heaviness

Previous psychophysical studies have shown that an object, lifted with a precision grip, is perceived as being heavier when its surface is smooth than when it is rough. Three experiments were conducted to assess whether this surface-weight illusion increases with object weight, as a simple fusion model suggests. Experiment 1 verified that grip force increases more steeply with object weight for smooth objects than for rough ones. In Experiment 2, subjects rated the weight of smooth and rough objects. Smooth objects were judged to be heavier than rough ones; however, this effect did not increase with object weight. Experiment 3 employed a different psychophysical method and replicated this additive effect, which argues strongly against the simple fusion model. The whole pattern of results is consistent with a weighted fusion model in which the sensation of grip force contributes only partially to the perceived heaviness of a lifted object.     

Stress regulation and incision in borderline personality disorder-a pilot study modeling cutting behavior

Emotion dysregulation in Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) is characterized by high baseline negative intensity, high reactivity, and slow return to baseline. Patients with BPD often engage in self-injurious behavior because it leads to immediate relief of stress levels. We aimed to assess stress regulation as well as the influence of tissue damage on subjective (aversive tension) and objective (heart rate) stress correlates in BPD. In 14 unmedicated patients with BPD and 18 healthy controls, a stress induction was followed by an incision into the forearm conducted by an investigator. For aversive tension, we found elevated baseline levels as well as slower return to baseline in BPD. In controls, incision resulted in a short-term increase of aversive tension, whereas tension and heart rate decreased in the BPD group. Our preliminary results support the hypothesis that tissue damage may play a role in disturbed stress regulation in BPD.     

Progressive taxation and the subjective well-being of nations

Using data from the Gallup World Poll, we examined whether progressive taxation is associated with increased levels of subjective well-being. Consistent with Rawls's theory of justice, our results showed that progressive taxation was positively associated with the subjective well-being of nations. However, the overall tax rate and government spending were not associated with the subjective well-being of nations. Furthermore, controlling for the wealth of nations and income inequality, we found that respondents living in a nation with more-progressive taxation evaluated their lives as closer to the best possible life and reported having more positive and less negative daily experiences than did respondents living in a nation with less-progressive taxation. Finally, we found that the association between more-progressive taxation and higher levels of subjective well-being was mediated by citizens' satisfaction with public goods, such as education and public transportation.     

Military training and personality trait development: does the military make the man, or does the man make the military?

Military experience is an important turning point in a person's life and, consequently, is associated with important life outcomes. Using a large longitudinal sample of German males, we examined whether personality traits played a role during this period. Results indicated that personality traits prospectively predicted the decision to enter the military. People lower in agreeableness, neuroticism, and openness to experience during high school were more likely to enter the military after graduation. In addition, military training was associated with changes in personality. Compared with a control group, military recruits had lower levels of agreeableness after training. These levels persisted 5 years after training, even after participants entered college or the labor market. This study is one of the first to identify life experiences associated with changes in personality traits. Moreover, our results suggest that military experiences may have a long-lasting influence on individual-level characteristics.     

Influence of Background Speech and Music in Interrupted Reading: An Eye‐Tracking Study

The current study examined the influence of interruption, background speech and music on reading, using an eye movement paradigm. Participants either read paragraphs while being exposed to background speech or music or read the texts in silence. On half of the trials, participants were interrupted by a 60‐second audio story before resuming reading the paragraph. Interruptions increased overall reading time, but the reading of text following the interruption was quicker compared with baseline. Background speech and music did not modulate the interruption effects, but the background speech slowed down the reading rate compared with reading in the presence of music or reading in silence. The increase in reading time was primarily due to an increase in the time spent rereading previously read words. We argue that the observed interruption effects are in line with a theory of long‐term working memory, and we present practical implications for the reported background speech effects. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Formula: see text]Executive functions in extremely low birth weight and late-preterm preschoolers: Effects on working memory and response inhibition

Executive function (EF) refers to fundamental capacities that underlie more complex cognition and have ecological relevance across the individual's lifespan. However, emerging executive functions have rarely been studied in young preterm children (age 3) whose critical final stages of fetal development are interrupted by their early birth. We administered four novel touch-screen computerized measures of working memory and inhibition to 369 participants born between 2004 and 2006 (52 Extremely Low Birth Weight [ELBW]; 196 late preterm; 121 term-born). ELBW performed worse than term-born on simple and complex working memory and inhibition tasks and had the highest percentage of incomplete performance on a continuous performance test. The latter finding indicates developmental immaturity and the ELBW group's most at-risk preterm status. Additionally, late-preterm participants performed worse compared with term-born on measures of complex working memory but did not differ from those term-born on response inhibition measures. These results are consistent with a recent literature that identifies often subtle but detectable neurocognitive deficits in late-preterm children. Our results support the development and standardization of computerized touch-screen measures to assess EF subcomponent abilities during the formative preschool period. Such measures may be useful to monitor the developmental trajectory of critical executive function abilities in preterm children, and their use is necessary for timely recognition of deficit and application of appropriate interventional strategies.     

Rats distinguish between absence of events and lack of evidence in contingency learning

The goal of three experiments was to study whether rats are aware of the difference between absence of events and lack of evidence. We used a Pavlovian extinction paradigm in which lights consistently signaling sucrose were suddenly paired with the absence of sucrose. The crucial manipulation involved the absent outcomes in the extinction phase. Whereas in the Cover conditions, access to the drinking receptacle was blocked by a metal plate, in the No Cover conditions, the drinking receptacle was accessible. The Test phase showed that in the Cover conditions, the measured expectancies of sucrose were clearly at a higher level than in the No Cover conditions. We compare two competing theories potentially explaining the findings. A cognitive theory interprets the observed effect as evidence that the rats were able to understand that the cover blocked informational access to the outcome information, and therefore the changed learning input did not necessarily signify a change of the underlying contingency in the world. An alternative associationist account, renewal theory, might instead explain the relative sparing of extinction in the Cover condition as a consequence of context change. We discuss the merits of both theories as accounts of our data and conclude that the cognitive explanation is in this case preferred.