Hindsight bias: how knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past

Once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to overestimate what could have been anticipated in foresight. Although typically considered to be a robust phenomenon, this hindsight bias is subject to moderating circumstances. In their meta-analysis, Christensen-Szalanski and Willham (1991) observed that the more experience people have with the task under consideration, the smaller is the resulting hindsight bias. This observation is one benchmark against which the explanatory power of process models of hindsight bias can be measured. Therefore, we used it to put the recently proposed RAFT model (Hoffrage, Hertwig, & Gigerenzer, 2000) to another test. Our findings were consistent with the "expertise effect." Specifically, we observed-using computer simulations of the RAFT model-that the more comprehensive people's knowledge is in foresight, the smaller is their hindsight bias. In addition, we made two counterintuitive observations: First, the relation between foresight knowledge and hindsight bias appears to be independent of how knowledge is processed. Second, even if foresight knowledge is false, it can reduce hindsight bias. We conclude with a discussion of the functional value of hindsight bias.     

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Conduct Disorder in Girls: A Review of the Literature

The study of Conduct Disorder (CD) has primarily been limited to boys. The lack of research resulted from a premise that CD in girls was rare. However, CD in girls is a relatively common psychiatric diagnosis, and appears to be associated with several serious outcomes, such as Antisocial Personality Disorder and early pregnancy. Understanding gender differences in the course and severity of CD may lead to important information about etiology. Empirical studies on precursors, developmental course, risk factors and treatment for CD in girls are reviewed, while highlighting similarities and differences between girls and boys. Generally, CD symptoms in girls are stable. Precursors to CD in girls probably include Oppositional Defiant Disorder and temperamental factors, but also may include certain negative cognitions. What distinguishes CD in girls is the high risk they have to develop comorbid conditions, especially internalizing disorders. Risk factors for CD in girls partly overlap with those known for boys, but some factors appear to be highly salient for girls. Finally, there may be some significant effects of gender on treatment efficacy. Implications of these findings for future etiologic research are discussed.     

The surface—weight illusion: On the contribution of grip force to perceived heaviness

Previous psychophysical studies have shown that an object, lifted with a precision grip, is perceived as being heavier when its surface is smooth than when it is rough. Three experiments were conducted to assess whether this surface-weight illusion increases with object weight, as a simple fusion model suggests. Experiment 1 verified that grip force increases more steeply with object weight for smooth objects than for rough ones. In Experiment 2, subjects rated the weight of smooth and rough objects. Smooth objects were judged to be heavier than rough ones; however, this effect did not increase with object weight. Experiment 3 employed a different psychophysical method and replicated this additive effect, which argues strongly against the simple fusion model. The whole pattern of results is consistent with a weighted fusion model in which the sensation of grip force contributes only partially to the perceived heaviness of a lifted object.     

Stress regulation and incision in borderline personality disorder-a pilot study modeling cutting behavior

Emotion dysregulation in Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) is characterized by high baseline negative intensity, high reactivity, and slow return to baseline. Patients with BPD often engage in self-injurious behavior because it leads to immediate relief of stress levels. We aimed to assess stress regulation as well as the influence of tissue damage on subjective (aversive tension) and objective (heart rate) stress correlates in BPD. In 14 unmedicated patients with BPD and 18 healthy controls, a stress induction was followed by an incision into the forearm conducted by an investigator. For aversive tension, we found elevated baseline levels as well as slower return to baseline in BPD. In controls, incision resulted in a short-term increase of aversive tension, whereas tension and heart rate decreased in the BPD group. Our preliminary results support the hypothesis that tissue damage may play a role in disturbed stress regulation in BPD.     

Progressive taxation and the subjective well-being of nations

Using data from the Gallup World Poll, we examined whether progressive taxation is associated with increased levels of subjective well-being. Consistent with Rawls's theory of justice, our results showed that progressive taxation was positively associated with the subjective well-being of nations. However, the overall tax rate and government spending were not associated with the subjective well-being of nations. Furthermore, controlling for the wealth of nations and income inequality, we found that respondents living in a nation with more-progressive taxation evaluated their lives as closer to the best possible life and reported having more positive and less negative daily experiences than did respondents living in a nation with less-progressive taxation. Finally, we found that the association between more-progressive taxation and higher levels of subjective well-being was mediated by citizens' satisfaction with public goods, such as education and public transportation.     

Military training and personality trait development: does the military make the man, or does the man make the military?

Military experience is an important turning point in a person's life and, consequently, is associated with important life outcomes. Using a large longitudinal sample of German males, we examined whether personality traits played a role during this period. Results indicated that personality traits prospectively predicted the decision to enter the military. People lower in agreeableness, neuroticism, and openness to experience during high school were more likely to enter the military after graduation. In addition, military training was associated with changes in personality. Compared with a control group, military recruits had lower levels of agreeableness after training. These levels persisted 5 years after training, even after participants entered college or the labor market. This study is one of the first to identify life experiences associated with changes in personality traits. Moreover, our results suggest that military experiences may have a long-lasting influence on individual-level characteristics.