Do Bettors Correctly Perceive Odds? Three Studies of How Bettors Interpret Betting Odds as Probabilistic Information

This paper reports on three studies investigating how accurately bettors (=people who regularly bet on sports events) interpret the probabilistic information implied by betting odds. All studies were based on data collected by web surveys prompting a total of 186 experienced bettors to convert sets of representative odds into frequency judgments. Bayesian statistical methods were used to analyze the data. From the results, the following conclusions were made: (i) On the whole, the bettors produced well‐calibrated judgments, indicating that they have realistic perceptions of odds. (ii) Bettors were unable to consciously adjust judgments for different margins. (iii) Although their interval judgments often covered the estimates implied by the odds, the bettors tended to overestimate the variation of expected profitable bets between months. The results are consistent with prior research showing that people tend to make accurate probability judgments when faced with tasks characterized by constant and clear feedback. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stress management: a randomized study of cognitive behavioural therapy and yoga

In this study, a stress management program based on cognitive behavioural therapy principles was compared with a Kundaliniyoga program. A study sample of 26 women and 7 men from a large Swedish company were divided randomly into 2 groups for each of the different forms of intervention; a total of 4 groups. The groups were instructed by trained group leaders and 10 sessions were held with each of groups, over a period of 4 months. Psychological (self-rated stress and stress behaviour, anger, exhaustion, quality of life) and physiological (blood pressure, heart rate, urinary catecholamines, salivary cortisol) measurements obtained before and after treatment showed significant improvements on most of the variables in both groups as well as medium-to-high effect sizes. However, no significant difference was found between the 2 programs. The results indicate that both cognitive behaviour therapy and yoga are promising stress management techniques.     

Creativity and the subliminal manipulation of projected self‐images

Abstract:

This is a report of two experiments on the relationship between creativity and the effects of manipulations of self‐image. Creativity was estimated with the Creative Functioning Test (CFT), an assessment of the tendency to bar the use of subjective interpretations when the support for a “correct” interpretation is being gradually eroded. Self‐image was manipulated in the Identification Test (IT). This involves a backwards masking design in which an ambiguous picture of a face is presented briefly on a viewing screen, preceded by either of two subliminal verbal messages. These were I SUPERIOR and I INFERIOR in a pilot study (n = 25) and I GOOD and I BAD in the main study (n = 33). In the latter, there was also an interview which served to further cross‐validate the CFT. In both studies, creative subjects alternated between reporting young faces and adult ones significantly more often than uncreative subjects. Their identity was not, then, fixedly adult. Creative and uncreative subjects also defended their projected self‐image in different ways against the subliminal manipulations. High and stable self‐confidence was typical of both highly creative and uncreative subjects, but not of subjects in the middle range. Still, the self‐confidence in the two extreme groups was only superficially similar.