The effects of wording on the understanding and use of uncertainty information in a threshold forecasting decision

Many believe that information about small chances of severe weather would be useful to the general public for precautionary action. What is the best way to explain this kind of information to a non‐expert audience? The studies reported here investigated effects of framing (negative vs. positive), format (frequency vs. probability), likelihood (low vs. high) and compatibility (task‐match) on interpretation of verbal expressions of forecast uncertainty and on subsequent forecasting decisions. The crucial factor was the match between the verbal expression and the overall task goal. Errors increased when there was a mismatch between the expression (e.g. winds less than 20 knots) and the task (e.g. post an advisory when winds will exceed 20 knots). However, framing and format had little impact. We conclude that consideration of user expectations arising from the overall task goal is crucial in explaining uncertainty information to a naïve audience. Global expectations overpower other potential effects. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of the Talmudic Argumentum A Fortiori Inference Rule (Kal Vachomer) using Matrix Abduction

We motivate and introduce a new method of abduction, Matrix Abduction, and apply it to modelling the use of non-deductive inferences in the Talmud such as Analogy and the rule of Argumentum A Fortiori. Given a matrix \({\mathbb {A}}\) with entries in {0, 1}, we allow for one or more blank squares in the matrix, say a _i,j =?. The method allows us to decide whether to declare a _i,j = 0 or a _i,j = 1 or a _i,j =? undecided. This algorithmic method is then applied to modelling several legal and practical reasoning situations including the Talmudic rule of Kal-Vachomer. We add an Appendix showing that this new rule of Matrix Abduction, arising from the Talmud, can also be applied to the analysis of paradoxes in voting and judgement aggregation. In fact we have here a general method for executing non-deductive inferences.     

Rapid eye movement (REM) in premature neonates and developmental outcome at 6 months

Different aspects of early sleep organization have been associated with subsequent development in premature infants. The aim of the present study was to assess the relations between rapid eye movement (REM) activity in premature neonates and infants' developmental outcomes at 6 months. Participants were 81 premature infants (47 males). Sleep-wake states and REM were observed across 4 consecutive evening hours (7-11 PM) in 10-s frames when infants were between 32 and 36 weeks post-menstrual age. Developmental outcome was assessed at 6 months with the mental development index (MDI) of the Bayley II. Infants with low-REM activity spent more time in less growth-promoting states, including crying and unfocused alert states in the neonatal period and had lower MDI scores at 6 months corrected age compared to infants with high-REM. Differences between the high- and low-REM groups were independent of neonatal medical risk. Low-REM activity may serve as an indicator of developmental risk among premature neonates.     

The aftermath of 9/11: effect of intensity and recency of trauma on outcome

Does trauma exposure have a long-term impact on the brain and behavior of healthy individuals? The authors used functional magnetic resonance imaging to assess the impact of proximity to the disaster of September 11, 2001, on amygdala function in 22 healthy adults. More than three years after the terrorist attacks, bilateral amygdala activity in response to viewing fearful faces compared to calm ones was higher in people who were within 1.5 miles of the World Trade Center on 9/11, relative to those who were living more than 200 miles away (all were living in the New York metropolitan area at time of scan). This activity mediated the relationship between group status and current symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. In turn, the effect of group status on both amygdala activation (fearful vs. calm faces) and current symptoms was statistically explained by time since worst trauma in lifetime and intensity of worst trauma, as indicated by reported symptoms at time of the trauma. These data are consistent with a model of heightened amygdala reactivity following high-intensity trauma exposure, with relatively slow recovery.     

Decade breaks in the mental number line? Putting the tens and units back in different bins.

Most models of number recognition agree that among other number representations there is a central semantic magnitude representation which may be conceptualized as a logarithmically compressed mental number line. Whether or not this number line is decomposed into different representations for tens and units is, however, controversial. We investigated this issue in German participants in a magnitude comparison (selection) task in which the larger of two visually presented Arabic two-digit numbers had to be selected. Most importantly, we varied unit-decade-compatibility: a number pair was defined as compatible if the decade magnitude comparison and the unit magnitude comparison of the two numbers would lead to the same response (e.g. 52 and 67) and as incompatible if this was not the case (e.g. 47 and 62). While controlling for overall numerical distance, size and other variables, we consistently found compatibility effects. A control experiment showed that this compatibility effect was not due to perceptual presentation characteristics. We conclude that the idea of one single number line representation that does not additionally assume different magnitude representations for tens and units is not sufficient to account for the data. Finally, we discuss why decade effects were not found in other experimental settings.     

Parenting among mothers exposed to ongoing military conflict in childhood: An exploratory study

Mothers living in areas exposed to ongoing military conflict are at higher risk for psychological difficulties, such as posttraumatic stress disorder, than those not living in such areas. The aim of this two-part exploratory study was twofold. The first aim was to examine differences between mothers who grew up under ongoing military conflict in childhood and mothers who did not grow up in affected areas in terms of their levels of differentiation of self and parental self-efficacy (PSE). The second aim was to identify and describe the parenting experiences of mothers who were exposed to military conflict in childhood. In Part 1 of the study, the sample included 120 mothers (half of whom reported on being exposed to ongoing military conflict in childhood). Findings showed that mothers exposed to ongoing military conflict in childhood reported lower levels of differentiation of self and PSE than their counterparts. In Part 2, 10 mothers who were exposed to ongoing military conflict as children were interviewed about their experience as parents and their PSE. Results indicated that the mothers felt their childhood experiences affected their parenting and PSE negatively, resulting in anxiety, difficulty dealing with stress and sometimes posttraumatic symptoms as well as parental patterns of overprotectiveness, separation anxiety and intergenerational transmission of anxiety. The results highlight the consequences of exposure to ongoing military conflict during childhood on levels of differentiation of self and parenting practices.