Simulation and multi‐attribute utility modelling of life cycle profit

Investments on capital goods are assessed with respect to the life cycle profit as well as the economic lifetime of the investment. The outcome of an investment with respect to these economic criteria is generally non‐deterministic. An assessment of different investment options thus requires probabilistic modelling to explicitly account for the uncertainties. A process for the assessment of life cycle profit and the evaluation of the adequacy of the assessment is developed. The primary goal of the assessment process is to aid the decision‐maker in structuring and quantifying investment decision problems characterized by multiple criteria and uncertainty. The adequacy of the assessment process can be evaluated by probabilistic criteria indicating the degree of uncertainty in the assessment. Bayesian inference is used to re‐evaluate the initial assessment, as evidence of the system performance becomes available. Thus authentication of contracts of guarantee is supported. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate features of the described life cycle profit assessment process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Development of Price Formation Theory and Subjectivism about Ultimate Values

abstract One sometimes finds leading economic thinkers expounding the metaphysical thesis that the ultimate ethical value of an object reflects nothing about the properties of the object in itself and instead reflects the subjective tastes of the valuer. Could anything in economics qua economics provide a warrant for such ethical subjectivism? And what might tempt economists to speak on such broadly meta‐ethical issues? In this paper we argue that a partial explanation for the subjectivist cast‐of‐mind of much economic theory is to be found in the recent history of price formation theory. (We focus in particular on the so‐called ‘Marginalist’ and ‘Ordinalist’ Revolutions in price theory.) We argue that although such price formation theory provides no warrant for drawing ethical subjectivist conclusions, it does provide an explanation as to why such conclusions might be drawn. Thus we explore how the particular history of the development of what is called ‘value theory’ might well lead one (albeit unwarrantedly) towards ethical subjectivism.     

Computational Evidence for the Subitizing Phenomenon as an Emergent Property of the Human Cognitive Architecture

A computational modeling approach was used to test one possible explanation for the limited capacity of the subitizing phenomenon. Most existing models of this phenomenon associate the subitizing span with an assumed structural limitation of the human information processing system. In contrast, we show how this limit might emerge as the combinatorics of the space of enumeration problems interacts with the human cognitive architecture in the context of an enumeration task. Subitizing‐like behavior was generated in two different models of enumeration, one based on the ACT‐R cognitive architecture and the other based on the principles of parallel distributed processing (PDP). Our results provide good qualitative fits to results obtained in a variety of empirical studies.     

Behaviors of ADHD and Peer Relationship Difficulties in Chinese and American Youths: Role of Co-Occurring Behaviors of Depression and Anxiety

Abstract

The co-occurrence of behaviors of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) with behaviors of anxiety or behaviors of depression is the norm, but little is known on how the co-occurrence accounted for youths’ peer relations. The authors report results on difficult peer relations in relation to behaviors of ADHD, co-occurring behaviors of depression, and behaviors of anxiety from three studies on 862 youths in China and in the United States. Study 1 included 313 ethnically and socioeconomically diverse American youths; Study 2 included 250 youths who were adopted out of Chinese orphanages by American parents; and Study 3 included 299 youths from Beijing, China. Data on difficult peer relations and behaviors of ADHD, depression, and anxiety were collected with the third edition of Behavior Assessment System for Children-Self Report of Personality. In all three studies, each type of problems alone significantly predicted difficult peer relations, but behaviors of ADHD were not significant when co-occurring behaviors of depression or co-occurring behaviors of anxiety were considered. Despite that the youths in our study had different cultural and personal backgrounds, there was no evidence that behaviors of ADHD were detrimental to youths’ peer relations when behaviors of depression or anxiety were considered. Implications for intervention were discussed.     

Death in the new age

Modern death is characterized by secularization, and the related features of medical‐ization, privatization and individualism, and is increasingly criticized from an expressivist position. This is the context in which a considerable volume of New Age writing on death and dying has emerged. The article explores New Age concepts of the soul and of reincarnation, the basis for these beliefs and the effect they have on care of the dying, the willingness of New Age carers to let the dying person be him or herself, and New Age theodicies. It is concluded that the New Age concern with the soul of the dying represents a significant attempt to reverse the secularization of death, though the success of this endeavour may be undermined by emphasis on the variety of personal experience and meaning.