Truthlikeness without truth: A methodological approach

In this paper, an attempt is made to solve various problems posed to current theories of verisimilitude: (1) the (Miller's) problem of linguistic variance; (2) the problem of which are the best scientific methods for getting the most verisimilar theories; and (3) the question of the ontological commitment in scientific theories. As a result of my solution ot these problems, and with the help of other considerations of epistemological character, I conclude that the notion of Tarskian truth is dispensable in a rational (and realist) interpretation of the scientific enterprise. As a logical result, however, falsificationism will be vindicated.

... and in brief, a speaker must always aim at verisimilitude, and send the truth packing.

Plato,Phaedrus, 272 EI want to express my gratitude to Professors García-Bermejo, Niiniluoto, and Zofío for interesting comments and critiques of several of the ideas in this paper, and to Miss Karen Firnich for correcting my English. I am also thankful to an anonymous referee who indicated several dark points on a previous version of my article.     

Visual perception of surface curvature: psychophysics of curvature detection induced by motion parallax

The continuous approach to optic-flow processing shows that the curvature of a moving surface is related to a second spatial derivative of the velocity field, the spin variation (Droulez & Cornilleau-Pérès, 1989). With this approach as a theoretical framework, visual sensitivity to the curvature of a cylinder in motion was measured using a task of discrimination between cylindrical and planar patches. The results confirm the predictions suggested by the theory: (1) Sensitivity to curvature was always greater when the cylinder axis and the frontal translation were parallel than when they were orthogonal. The ratio of curvature detection thresholds in the two cases was between 1.3 and 2.5; the value predicted from the spin variation theory is about 2. (2) Sensitivity to curvature increased strongly with the velocity of the motion but was only weakly affected by its amplitude and the duration of viewing for the range of values used in our experiments.     

Splitting visual space with attention

If a right-left spatial compatibility effect is observed, it can be maintained that the space has been segmented into right- and left-side parts. The present study aimed at showing a spatial compatibility effect (and, by implication, a right-left subdivision of space) solely attributable to the orienting of attention. Five groups of 8 normal subjects were required to give right-left discriminative responses to stimuli presented within one of six empty boxes arranged in a horizontal row. Reaction times and errors were recorded. The first two experiments showed that a right-left grouping of the boxes occurred regardless of whether subjects' fixation was kept at the intermediate position (Experiment 1) or at one extremity (Experiment 2) of the row. In Experiments 3 and 4, subjects' attention was not aligned with a fixed position but was moved, through peripheral cues, from trial to trial and positioned between different pairs of adjacent boxes. The results showed that the display was again subdivided into two regions and that the reference point for the right-left subdivision was the focus of attention. In Experiment 5, eye position was instrumentally monitored, and subjects' attention was directed by central cues. The results confirmed that the focusing of attention leads to a right-left partitioning of space, with the boundary at the locus of focal attention. In conclusion, we demonstrated, by employing a right-left spatial compatibility paradigm, that directing attention to a position in space brings about a right-left perceptual organization that predominates over that provided by the other egocentric reference axes.     

Principles in judgment/decision making research pertinent to legal proceedings

Principles in the judgment/decision making literature relevant to the legal community are reviewed. These principles are divided into four areas: the decision process itself, communicating a judgment to others, evaluating a decision, and possible ways of “debiasing.” Several influences on the decision process are enumerated, among them being insufficient consideration of base rates, selective memory for relevant material, the framing of the decision in either the domain of losses or the domain of gains, and consideration of the “cues to causation.” Particular attention is paid to suboptimal consideration of covariation information. In communicating the decision to others the two most prominent findings are overconfidence in expressing one's decision and the inability to describe accurately the bases of one's decision. Evaluating a decision is plagued by two biases. The first is the hindsight bias. After an event has occurred we tend to exaggerate how easily we could have predicted the event beforehand. The second is the outcome bias. We tend to base our evaluation of the decision upon the evaluation of the outcome. Among the debiasing techniques mentioned are the admonition to “consider the opposite” of the preferred option, the reduction of reliance on memory, and the use of decision aids.     

The physiology of the tunnel

Several theories to account for the origin of tunnel hallucinations and tunnel experiences near death are considered: (1) the idea of a real tunnel; (2) representations of transition; (3) reliving birth memories; (4) imagination; and (5) physiological origins. Three different physiological theories are considered that related the tunnel form to the structure of the visual cortex. All can account for much of the phenomenology of the tunnel experience, and all lead to testable predictions. It is argued that the tunnel experience involves a change in the mental model of the self in the world. Because of this, an experience of purely physiological origin, with no implications for other worlds or for survival, can nevertheless produce lasting changes in the sense of self and reduce the fear of death.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.