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This paper presents an attempt to integrate theories of causal processes—of the kind developed by Wesley Salmon and Phil Dowe—into a theory of causal models using Bayesian networks. We suggest that arcs in causal models must correspond to possible causal processes. Moreover, we suggest that when processes are rendered physically impossible by what occurs on distinct paths, the original model must be restricted by removing the relevant arc. These two techniques suffice to explain cases of late pre?mption and other cases that have proved problematic for causal models.
Toby HandfieldEmail:
  相似文献   
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In a computer-managed version of Keller's personalized system of instruction, students received frequent feedback from more advanced students within the course. Overall accuracy of student-provided feedback was 87%, and students complied with 61% of the feedback.  相似文献   
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The fairy tale The Three Princes of Serendip can be taken to be allegorical of not only chance discovery (serendipity) but of other aspects of scientific discovery as well. Just as Horace Walpole coined serendipity, so can the term bahramdipity be derived from the tale and defined as the cruel suppression of a serendipitous discovery. Suppressed, unpublished discoveries are designated nulltiples. Several examples are presented to make the case that bahramdipity is an existent aspect of scientific discovery. Other examples of non-ideal scientific research and discovery are provided in order to contrast and clarify the meaning and use of bahramdipity. Additional allegories of scientific discovery are taken from the tale and a hope for the strengthening of scientific integrity is expressed.  相似文献   
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Toby Meadows 《Studia Logica》2012,100(3):497-515
I provide a tableau system and completeness proof for a revised version of Carnap??s semantics for quantified modal logic. For Carnap, a sentence is possible if it is true in some first order model. However, in a similar fashion to second order logic, no sound and complete proof theory can be provided for this semantics. This factor contributed to the ultimate disappearance of Carnapian modal logic from contemporary philosophical discussion. The proof theory I discuss comes close to Carnap??s semantic vision and provides an interesting counterpoint to mainstream approaches to modal logic. Despite its historical origins, my intention is to demonstrate that this approach to modal logic is worthy of contemporary attention and that current debate is the poorer for its absence.  相似文献   
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This study aimed to investigate the recruitment prospects of people with facial disfigurement and a contrasting group of wheelchair users, representing a functional impairment with little aesthetic impact. Three applications were made to each of 144 vacancies using three CVs and cover letters rotated around conditions in which one applicant was described as a wheelchair user, another had a noncontagious facial disfigurement, and the third (control condition) had neither. There was evidence of discrimination against people with facial disfigurement in jobs requiring high (but not low) levels of customer contact, and against wheelchair users for jobs entailing high or low‐customer contact. Aesthetic considerations, social norms, and the possibility of stigma by association are discussed as potential underlying factors.  相似文献   
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This paper describes a study protocol to investigate the use of immersive virtual reality as a treatment for amputees' phantom limb pain. This work builds upon prior research using mirror box therapy to induce vivid sensations of movement originating from the muscles and joints of amputees' phantom limbs. The present project transposes movements of amputees' anatomical limbs into movements of a virtual limb presented in the phenomenal space of their phantom limb. It is anticipated that the protocol described here will help reduce phantom limb pain.  相似文献   
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Conclusion This short article is intended as a brief discussion of the concept of terrorism as technology, and the impact of military thinking about new threat models on the theoretical analysis of terrorism. Many of the concepts developed in discussions of the RMA seem tailor-made to terrorism. Indeed, terrorism in its conventional, political form was one of the new threats that the RMA has been applied to. However, the thesis of this article is that the new form of terrorism that debuted so spectacularly on September 11 can also be theoretically analyzed within the prism of the RMA. Toby Blyth, BA (Japanese)/LLB (Western Australia), Solicitor - Supreme Court of England and Wales, Supreme Court of New South Wales, Federal and High Courts of Australia, ANZIIF (Fellow). The opinions and conclusions contained herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect policy, institutional opinion, or proprietary information of his employer. This paper is based in part on research carried out by the author for and on a paper published in 1999 by the Terrorism Research Centre, Inc.  相似文献   
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L'accession au pouvoir est présentée comme une recette universelle pour améliorer la performance au travail. On défend ici l'idée qu'il existe déjà des arguments forts pour penser que cette conviction est des plus discutables, et que l'impact de la participation dépendra du degré de l'incertitude opérationnelle qui prévaut. Notre point de vue s'appuie sur une analyse des idées qui émergent conjointement de cinq domaines, à savoir les théories des organisations, la structuration du travail, le management "zéro défaut", le management des facteurs humains et celui des ressources humaines. On met en évidence les conséquences théoriques et pratiques de nos investigations et certaines des pistes à suivre pour approfondir la réflexion.
Empowerment is being promoted as a general recipe for enhancing work performance. We argue that there are already strong grounds for suggesting that this universalistic assumption is flawed, and that the effectiveness of empowerment practices will be contingent on the degree of operational uncertainty that prevails. This argument is supported by an analysis of ideas in common emerging from five different areas of inquiry, namely those concerned with organisational theory, work design, total quality management, human factors, and human resource management. We identify the theoretical and practical implications of our analysis, and some of the lines of investigation required to develop the ideas further.  相似文献   
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