Forecasting from ignorance: the use and usefulness of recognition in lay predictions of sports events

Whereas previous studies on how people make forecasts of sports events focused primarily on experts, we examined how laypeople do this task. In particular, we (a) tested the recognition heuristic [Goldstein, D. G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: the recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90], which requires partial ignorance, against four alternative mechanisms in describing laypeople's forecasts for the European Soccer Championships 2004; (b) evaluated how well recognition predicted the outcomes of the matches compared to direct indicators of team strength (e.g., past performance, rankings); and (c) studied the less-is-more effect--the phenomenon that knowing less leads to more correct forecasts than knowing more--which can occur when the recognition heuristic is used. Two groups of participants (laypeople, experts) made forecasts for the first-round matches of the tournament. Of the five candidate mechanisms, the recognition heuristic predicted laypeople's forecasts best: when applicable, it accounted for 90% of the forecasts. The recognition heuristic correctly predicted the actual winner of the matches substantially better than chance but did not achieve the accuracy of direct indicators of team strength. The experts made more correct forecasts than the laypeople. Moreover, we found no benefit of ignorance among the group of laypeople, although the conditions for a less-is-more effect specified by Goldstein and Gigerenzer were fulfilled.     

Autobiographical memory specificity and emotional disorder

The authors review research showing that when recalling autobiographical events, many emotionally disturbed patients summarize categories of events rather than retrieving a single episode. The mechanisms underlying such overgeneral memory are examined, with a focus on M. A. Conway and C. W. Pleydell-Pearce's (2000) hierarchical search model of personal event retrieval. An elaboration of this model is proposed to account for overgeneral memory, focusing on how memory search can be affected by (a) capture and rumination processes, when mnemonic information used in retrieval activates ruminative thinking; (b) functional avoidance, when episodic material threatens to cause affective disturbance; and (c) impairment in executive capacity and control that limits an individual's ability to remain focused on retrieval in the face of distraction.     

Mindfulness-based cognitive therapy as a treatment for chronic depression: A preliminary study

This pilot study investigated the effectiveness of Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT), a treatment combining mindfulness meditation and interventions taken from cognitive therapy, in patients suffering from chronic-recurrent depression. Currently symptomatic patients with at least three previous episodes of depression and a history of suicidal ideation were randomly allocated to receive either MBCT delivered in addition to treatment-as-usual (TAU; N = 14 completers) or TAU alone (N = 14 completers). Depressive symptoms and diagnostic status were assessed before and after treatment phase. Self-reported symptoms of depression decreased from severe to mild levels in the MBCT group while there was no significant change in the TAU group. Similarly, numbers of patients meeting full criteria for depression decreased significantly more in the MBCT group than in the TAU group. Results are consistent with previous uncontrolled studies. Although based on a small sample and, therefore, limited in their generalizability, they provide further preliminary evidence that MBCT can be used to successfully reduce current symptoms in patients suffering from a protracted course of the disorder.     

The relationship between visual attention and expertise in sports

ObjectivesGiven the prevalence of misperception and failed perception, particularly in attention-demanding team sports, surprisingly few studies have explored whether experts in team sports differ from other athletes and from non-athletes in their basic attention abilities.MethodIn this study, we examined group differences between experts in team handball (n = 40), athletes from non-team sports (n = 40), and novice athletes (n = 40) using a battery of three attention tasks: a functional field of view task, a multiple-object tracking task, and an inattentional blindness task.ResultsPerformance on the three attention tasks was largely independent, with no significant correlations among the tasks. Team sports experts showed no better performance on the basic attention tasks than did athletes from non-teams sports or novice athletes.ConclusionsThe finding that all basic attention tasks are largely independent provides preliminary support for the idea that attentional breadth, tracking performance, and inattentional blindness are distinct attentional processes. Our results demonstrate that sports expertise effects are unrelated to basic differences in attention—expertise does not appear to produce differences in basic attention and basic differences in attention do not appear to predict eventual expertise. Further experiments could focus on the ways in which more specific attentional strategies and processes contribute to sports performance.     

Social Relations and Cyberbullying: The Influence of Individual and Structural Attributes on Victimization and Perpetration via the Internet

Current research indicates that an alarming number of students are affected by cyberbullying. However, most of the empirical research has focused on psychological explanations of the phenomenon. In an explorative survey study based on the reconstruction of 2 complete school networks (N_P = 408), we expand the explanation strategies of cyberbullying to higher levels of social abstraction. Using statistical and structural analysis, and visual inspection of network environments, we compare explanations on individual and structural levels. In line with previous research, the findings support traditional explanations via sociodemographic and personality factors. However, the findings also reveal network positioning to be a comparably strong predictor for cyberbullying. Therefore, we argue that without taking structural factors into account, individual explanations will remain insufficient.     

How does aging affect recognition-based inference? A hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach

The recognition heuristic (RH) is a simple strategy for probabilistic inference according to which recognized objects are judged to score higher on a criterion than unrecognized objects. In this article, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of the multinomial r-model is applied to measure use of the RH on the individual participant level and to re-evaluate differences between younger and older adults' strategy reliance across environments. Further, it is explored how individual r-model parameters relate to alternative measures of the use of recognition and other knowledge, such as adherence rates and indices from signal-detection theory (SDT). Both younger and older adults used the RH substantially more often in an environment with high than low recognition validity, reflecting adaptivity in strategy use across environments. In extension of previous analyses (based on adherence rates), hierarchical modeling revealed that in an environment with low recognition validity, (a) older adults had a stronger tendency than younger adults to rely on the RH and (b) variability in RH use between individuals was larger than in an environment with high recognition validity; variability did not differ between age groups. Further, the r-model parameters correlated moderately with an SDT measure expressing how well people can discriminate cases where the RH leads to a correct vs. incorrect inference; this suggests that the r-model and the SDT measures may offer complementary insights into the use of recognition in decision making. In conclusion, younger and older adults are largely adaptive in their application of the RH, but cognitive aging may be associated with an increased tendency to rely on this strategy.     

What mediation analysis can (not) do

The present article is concerned with a common misunderstanding in the interpretation of statistical mediation analyses. These procedures can be sensibly used to examine the degree to which a third variable (Z) accounts for the influence of an independent (X) on a dependent variable (Y) conditional on the assumption that Z actually is a mediator. However, conversely, a significant mediation analysis result does not prove that Z is a mediator. This obvious but often neglected insight is substantiated in a simulation study. Using different causal models for generating Z (genuine mediator, spurious mediator, correlate of the dependent measure, manipulation check) it is shown that significant mediation tests do not allow researchers to identify unique mediators, or to distinguish between alternative causal models. This basic insight, although well understood by experts in statistics, is persistently ignored in the empirical literature and in the reviewing process of even the most selective journals.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of Gaming- and Non-Gaming-Related Friendships and Social Support among Social Online Game Players

Research examining online games often focuses on their potential to negatively impact players. One of the most common concerns is that playing online with others can displace offline relationships and, consequently, detrimentally affect one’s level of “offline” social support. However, there has been little empirical evidence supporting these causal claims. The current study addresses this by outlining a longitudinal analysis between gaming- and non-gaming-related friendships and social support among a representative sample of social online players (i.e., people who play online video games with others). The results indicate that social online video game play with online or offline friends is not related to perceived social support, positively or negatively, cross-sectionally or longitudinally. Taken together, these results dispute the long-held claims of the social displacement hypothesis and instead suggest that social online video game play does not have negative real-world consequences on players’ offline friendships or levels of offline social support.     

The Effect of Mindfulness-based Programs on Cognitive Function in Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Neuropsychology Review - Mindfulness-based programs (MBPs) are increasingly utilized to improve mental health. Interest in the putative effects of MBPs on cognitive function is also growing. This...