Cognitive Biases in Playing the Lottery: Estimating the Odds and Choosing the Numbers

Three experiments were conducted to examine the operation of the representativeness and anchoring and adjustment heuristics in lottery play. Subjects in Experiments 1 and 2 indicated their chances of winning a lottery with an objective probability of 1 in 10. Consistent with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, subjects (in both experiments) perceived their chances of winning to be greater when the lottery was based on a single event than when it was based on a disjunctive event. Subjects in these two experiments also selected numbers to play in a pick-3 (Experiment 1) or pick-4 (Experiment 2) lottery. Consistent with the representativeness heuristic, subjects in Experiment 2 demonstrated a preference for numbers without repeating digits. This also occurred in Experiment 3 wherein the numbers actually played in the Indiana daily Pick-3 lottery were examined.     

The Discrediting Effect in Eyewitness Testimony1

Loftus (1974) had subjects read summaries of criminal trials that contained the testimony of either credible or discredited prosecution eyewitnesses, and found no effect of discrediting an eyewitness. Instead, almost as many subjects voted guilty with a discredited eyewitness as with a credible eyewitness; this led Loftus to the conclusion that jurors tend to overbelieve eyewitness testimony. Loftus's conclusion was subsequently challenged by others who reported a strong discrediting effect. A series of three experiments using college students was conducted to explore the characteristics of trial summaries that might account for the discrepancy in results, such as inclusion of judicial instructions concerning proof beyond a reasonable doubt, or an eyewitness's reaffirmation of his testimony following discrediting. In all cases, a strong discrediting effect was found. Apparently the discrediting effect appears regardless of wide variation in content of trial summaries. The present data do not support the overbelief claim.     

Origins of fear of dogs in adults and children: the role of conditioning processes and prior familiarity with dogs.

One hundred adults and 30 children completed questionnaires to investigate fear of dogs. Dog fearful adults asked to recall the origins of their fear reported classical conditioning experiences more frequently than vicarious acquisition or informational transmission. Overall, however, there was no difference in the frequency of attacks reported by the fearful and non-fearful groups. Significantly more fearful than non-fearful adults reported little contact with dogs prior to the onset of their fear which suggests that early non-eventful exposure to dogs may prevent a conditioning event from producing a dog phobia. Most adults reported that their fear began in childhood, and dog fear were more frequently reported by children than by adults. In the aggregate, however, dog-fearful adults and children differed in several ways; children were more likely than adults to report having received warnings about dogs, but also to recognize the potential attractiveness of a friendly dog. Unlike dog-fearful children, dog-fearful adults reported many other fears in addition to their fear of dogs. A better understanding of fear of dogs in adults may depend on discovering why some dog-fearful children, but not others, apparently lose their fear of dogs as they become older.     

Reaction time to threat stimuli in panic disorder and social phobia

Two studies assessed response time among clinically anxious subjects and normal controls when presented with threat, positive and neutral stimuli under perceptual (lexical decision) and semantic (category decision) task conditions. In Study 1, panic disorder subjects' (n = 14) performance was compared to that of matched normal controls (n = 14) while in Study 2 social phobic subjects (n = 24) were compared to matched normal controls (n = 24). Relative to matched normal controls, panic disorder subjects but not social phobics tended to show greater slowing in performance on the more cognitively complex (category) task. A second finding, consistent across both studies was that, compared to the normal control groups, both panic and social phobic groups showed significantly slowed responses to threat words in both the perceptual and semantic tasks. Such findings are directly counter to the predictions of a mood congruence hypothesis. This apparent contradiction is resolved by a review of the literature which indicates that mood-related facilitation effects are obtained only in tasks which tap awareness of threat information rather than speed of response. It is suggested that while anxiety may produce enhanced awareness of threat, it may inhibit responsiveness to it. The results of these studies are seen as consistent with ethological theories of inhibited motoric responses under certain threat conditions. Furthermore, the findings suggest that caution is indicated in interpreting slowed reaction time to threat stimuli in tasks such as the Stroop color naming task as purely the result of attentional processes.     

Erikson's life cycle theory and images of God

Human life is a God-ordained pilgrimage by which persons travel toward ever-expanding images of God that emerge from the universal pattern of developmental crises. Using the work of Erik Erikson on the human life cycle and the work of Donald Capps on human sin, the author presents a way to conduct pastoral diagnosis and to provide pastoral care. By accurately tracing a person's images of God back to their potentially unresolved developmental crises, the pastoral caregiver can reopen opportunities for further and healthier resolution of the crises.     

Sentence encoding and implicitly activated memories

Some words have fewer direct associates than others, and, when words varying in set size are studied in a list-learning task, those with smaller sets are more likely to be recalled. This set-size effect is found in cued recall when the words are studied in the absence of related words, but not when studied in the presence of related words. Related words provide context and theoretically inhibit irrelevant associates. The present research determined that set-size effects are found when words are encoded in sentence contexts. In contrast to list-learning experiments, the results of three experiments found such effects even when lexically related words were present in the sentences. Other findings indicated that target-set-size effects were determined by the proximity of related words in the sentence and the nature of the test cue. The results are discussed in relation to a model for explaining set-size effects and to selective findings from the sentence-comprehension literature.     

Cuing effects and associative information in recognition memory

Item recognition requires discrimination of studied words from nonstudied words. Associative recognition requires subjects to discriminate studied word groups from recombinations of words from different groups. Cued recognition requires the same old-new discrimination as item recognition, but list items are presented as cues along with the test item. The results from three experiments show (1) little or no effect of cuing for low-frequency words, but (2) positive cuing effects for high-frequency words; (3) increasing levels of overall performance with increases in study time, but (4) unchanging effects of cuing with study time; and (5) stronger positive cuing effects for two cues than for one cue. Five models (Independent Cue Model, Matrix model, MINERVA 2, SAM, and TODAM) were fit to the data of Experiment 1. Each model has trouble with at least one aspect of the results. Theoretical implications and modifications are discussed at length.     

An investigation into the relationship between perceived control,attitude variability and the consumption of two common foods

The study reported here takes its lead from the literatures which emphasize the importance of attitude variability and the role of perceived control over action. Within-person variability and perceptions of control are investigated in the context of people's attitudes towards the consumption of two common foods. The role of attitude ambivalence is also examined. The findings indicate that higher attitude variability is associated with weaker relationships between the components of the theory of reasoned action and that attitude variability is negatively related to perceived control. Moreover, perceived control is shown to be related to different sorts of control problem for different behaviours. It is advocated that a more in-depth assessment of attitude variability and the perceived control construct is merited and that recent calls for more serious examination of attitude ambivalence are well-founded.     

A developmental evaluation of the role of word shape in word recognition

Fourth- and seventh-grade children and college-age adults proofread passages typed either in lowercase or in all capital letters. Words were misspelled by deleting one of four letters, s, c, k, or p, that have similar features in lowercase and uppercase. Proofreading errors decreased with age and increasing reading ability, but all of the subjects were sensitive to changes in word shape--they missed more words with deletions of s or c than k or p in the lowercase passage but not in the all-capitals passage. These findings indicate that word shape is an important variable in recognizing familiar words, even for young readers.