Cognitive Biases in Playing the Lottery: Estimating the Odds and Choosing the Numbers

Three experiments were conducted to examine the operation of the representativeness and anchoring and adjustment heuristics in lottery play. Subjects in Experiments 1 and 2 indicated their chances of winning a lottery with an objective probability of 1 in 10. Consistent with the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, subjects (in both experiments) perceived their chances of winning to be greater when the lottery was based on a single event than when it was based on a disjunctive event. Subjects in these two experiments also selected numbers to play in a pick-3 (Experiment 1) or pick-4 (Experiment 2) lottery. Consistent with the representativeness heuristic, subjects in Experiment 2 demonstrated a preference for numbers without repeating digits. This also occurred in Experiment 3 wherein the numbers actually played in the Indiana daily Pick-3 lottery were examined.     

The Discrediting Effect in Eyewitness Testimony1

Loftus (1974) had subjects read summaries of criminal trials that contained the testimony of either credible or discredited prosecution eyewitnesses, and found no effect of discrediting an eyewitness. Instead, almost as many subjects voted guilty with a discredited eyewitness as with a credible eyewitness; this led Loftus to the conclusion that jurors tend to overbelieve eyewitness testimony. Loftus's conclusion was subsequently challenged by others who reported a strong discrediting effect. A series of three experiments using college students was conducted to explore the characteristics of trial summaries that might account for the discrepancy in results, such as inclusion of judicial instructions concerning proof beyond a reasonable doubt, or an eyewitness's reaffirmation of his testimony following discrediting. In all cases, a strong discrediting effect was found. Apparently the discrediting effect appears regardless of wide variation in content of trial summaries. The present data do not support the overbelief claim.     

Assessing attributions in marriage: the relationship attribution measure.

A brief, simple measure of different types of attributions for partner behavior was examined in 3 studies of married couples. Reliability was established by high internal consistency and test-retest correlations. Causal and responsibility attribution scores correlated with marital satisfaction, attributions for marital difficulties, and attributions for actual partner behaviors generated by spouses. Responsibility attributions were related to (a) reported anger in response to stimulus behaviors used in the measure and (b) the amount of anger displayed by wives during a problem-solving interaction with their partner. The extent to which husbands and wives whined during their discussion also correlated with their responsibility attributions. The results address several problems with existing assessments, and their implications for the measurement of attributions in marriage are discussed.     

Evidence for an error deadzone in compensatory tracking

Humans and monkeys show intermittent arm movements while tracking moving targets. This intermittency has been explained by postulating either a psychological refractory period after each movement and/or an error deadzone, an area surrounding the target within which movements are not initiated. We present a technique to detect and quantify the size of this deadzone, using a compensatory tracking paradigm that distinguishes it from a psychological refractory period. An artificial deadzone of variable size was added around a visual target displayed on a computer screen. While the subject was within this area, he received visual feedback that showed him to be directly on target. The presence of this artificial deadzone could affect tracking performance only if it exceeded the size of his intrinsic deadzone. Therefore, the size of artificial deadzone at which performance began to be affected revealed the size of the intrinsic deadzone. Measured at the subjects' eye, the deadzone was found to vary between 0.06 and 0.38 degrees, depending on the tracking task and viewing conditions; on the screen, this range was 1.3 mm to 3.3 mm. It increased with increasing speed of the target, with increasing viewing distance, and when the amplitude of the movement required was reduced. However, the deadzone size was not significantly correlated with the subjects' level of performance. We conclude that an intrinsic deadzone exists during compensatory tracking, and we suggest that its size is set by a cognitive process not simply related to the difficulty of the tracking task.     

Stimulus recognition and the mere exposure effect.

A meta-analysis of research on Zajonc's (1968) mere exposure effect indicated that stimuli perceived without awareness produce substantially larger exposure effects than do stimuli that are consciously perceived (Bornstein, 1989a). However, this finding has not been tested directly in the laboratory. Two experiments were conducted comparing the magnitude of the exposure effect produced by 5-ms (i.e., subliminal) stimuli and stimuli presented for longer durations (i.e., 500 ms). In both experiments, 5-ms stimuli produced significantly larger mere exposure effects than did 500-ms stimuli. These results were obtained for polygon (Experiment 1), Welsh figure (Experiment 2), and photograph stimuli (Experiments 1 and 2). Implications of these findings for theoretical models of the mere exposure effect are discussed.     

Self-report, peer-report, and teacher-report measures of childhood depression: an analysis by item.

We explored the low correlation among different types of childhood depression measures at the item level. The items from the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI), Peer Nomination Inventory of Depression (PNID), and the Child Behavior Checklist-Teacher Report Form (CBCL-T) were combined, and both first- and second-order factor analyses were conducted. Results indicate that self-report, peer-report, and teacher-report assessments of depression measure generally uncorrelated constructs. Second-order analysis suggests that depression as a global construct is being measured to some degree by items from all three instruments. Canonical analysis was employed to identify items that best predicted CDI, PNID, and CBL-T summary scores simultaneously. Also, the relationship between specific items with similar content was investigated. Results from these analyses generally supported a conclusion that the three types of measures yield scores that are primarily independent and that the use of summary scores is not masking stronger relationships within measures. These findings have implications for clinical practice and construct elaboration.     

Reliability and validity of the Coolidge Axis II Inventory: a new inventory for the assessment of personality disorders.

This group of studies describes the development of a 200 item, self-report, 4-point true-false inventory (Coolidge Axis II Inventory [CATI]) to assess personality disorders according to the criteria established in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (3rd ed., rev. [DSM-III-R]; American Psychiatric Association, 1987). The 13 personality disorder scales of the CATI had a mean test-retest reliability of .90 and a median internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) of .76. There was a 50% concordance rate with clinician's diagnosis for 24 personality disordered patients. The median concurrent validity (raw score sums) between the CATI and the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-II for the 13 personality disorder scales was .58. Preliminary studies also support the reliability and validity of Depression, Anxiety, and Brain Dysfunction scales.     

The effect of hypnotically elicited testimony on jurors' judgments of guilt and innocence.

Survey data from several countries indicate that many people believe that hypnosis may increase the accuracy of an eyewitness's memory; most experimental research, however, suggests that this belief is inaccurate. This study examined whether the belief could influence judgments of guilt and innocence in a simulated criminal trial. The results indicated that British undergraduates were more likely to find a male defendant guilty when told that the testimony against him had been elicited under hypnosis. Results concerning a nonhypnotic memory facilitation technique were found to be inconclusive, and the salience of hypnotically elicited testimony was ruled out as a contributory element.     

Choice of medical specialty: analysis of students' needs.

The purposes of this study were to assess the career development needs of entering medical students as measured by the Medical Career Development Inventory and to examine gender differences in responses to the inventory. A total of 115 entering medical students (representing two entering classes) took the inventory two months prior to matriculation. Analysis suggested that this sample of entering students had formed a vocational identity and that they had evaluated the suitability and viability of a commitment to a physician's career. However, the participants had not formed a clear picture of their specialty interest and goals. No significant gender differences were indicated. A recommended career assistance workshop is presented as appropriate for these students' needs.