Developmental epidemiologically based preventive trials: Baseline modeling of early target behaviors and depressive symptoms

Describes a conceptual framework for identifying and targeting developmental antecedents in early childhood that have been shown in previous work to predict delinquency and violent behavior, heavy drug use, depression, and other psychiatric symptoms and possibly disorders in late adolescence and into adulthood. Criteria are described that guided choices of targets for two epidemiologically based, randomized preventive trials carried out in 19 elementary schools in the eastern half of Baltimore, involving more than 2,400 first-grade children over the course of first and second grades. Baseline models derived from the first of two cohorts show the evolving patterns of concurrence among the target antecedents. The central role of concentration problems emerged. From Fall to Spring in first grade, concentration problems led to shy and aggressive behavior and poor achievement in both genders and to depressive symptoms among girls. There was evidence for reciprocal relationships in girls. For example, depressive symptoms led to poor achievement in both girls and boys, whereas poor achievement led to depressive symptoms in girls but not boys, at least over the first-grade year. These results provide important epidemiological data relevant to the developmental paths leading to the problem outcomes and suggest preventive trials.     

Comparison of Marine and College Women's HIV/AIDS-Relevant Sexual Behaviors1

This study compares the heterosexual risk behaviors, perceptions of vulnerability to HIV/AIDS, and predictors of condom use of two groups of women with very different sexual and contraceptive histories and habits–college women and women in Marine Corps recruit training. The Marines' s]exual behaviors put them at greater risk of contracting HIV than the college students; that is, Marines reported more frequent intercourse with more partners, used condoms less frequently, and had less knowledge about HIV/AIDS transmission. Consistent with these differences, college students displayed a larger illusion of unique invulnerability than did the Marines. In general, the women who had more sexual partners and more frequent sexual intercourse were less likely to report regularly using condoms. In addition, the data provide support for Weinstein and Nicholich's (1993) recent suggestion that the relation between risk perception and risk behavior is different for different groups of people.     

Helplessness deficits in students: The role of motivational orientation

This paper includes research comprised of field studies and laboratory experiments to examine our diathesis-stress model that students with an extrinsic motivational orientation given evaluative/controlling directives are at risk for maladaptive achievement patterns, including performance, cognitive, and emotional deficits of helplessness. The findings, using our multimethod approach, confirmed our assumptions and indicated that motivational orientation is a more reliable predictor of helplessness than either attributions or perceptions of competence. The pattern of data obtained across studies is discussed in light of other theoretical approaches to understanding achievement patterns in students.The research reported here was supported, in part, by Grant No. MN45566 from NIMH. Address all correspondence to Ann K. Boggiano, Department of Psychology, Campus Box 345, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0345.     

Subjective causal networks and indeterminate suppositional credences

This paper has two main parts. In the first part, we motivate a kind of indeterminate, suppositional credences by discussing the prospect for a subjective interpretation of a causal Bayesian network (CBN), an important tool for causal reasoning in artificial intelligence. A CBN consists of a causal graph and a collection of interventional probabilities. The subjective interpretation in question would take the causal graph in a CBN to represent the causal structure that is believed by an agent, and interventional probabilities in a CBN to represent suppositional credences. We review a difficulty noted in the literature with such an interpretation, and suggest that a natural way to address the challenge is to go for a generalization of CBN that allows indeterminate credences. In the second part, we develop a decision-theoretic foundation for such indeterminate suppositional credences, by generalizing a theory of coherent choice functions to accommodate some form of act-state dependence. The upshot is a decision-theoretic framework that is not only rich enough to, so to speak, ground the probabilities in a subjectively interpreted causal network, but also interesting in its own right, in that it accommodates both act-state dependence and imprecise probabilities.