Order effects in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence

The current study tests for the presence of differential order effects in evaluation tasks with consistent and inconsistent evidence as predicted by the Hogarth and Einhorn (1992) belief-adjustment model. The results, based on both between-subjects and within-subjects experiments, demonstrate that there were significant recency effects with inconsistent evidence as predicted, larger recency effects when the inconsistent evidence was farther apart in subjective value as predicted, and significant recency effects even when subjects were given training designed to both help them understand the task as completely as possible and to be better able to assess the pieces of evidence. By including a within-subjects design, we were able to demonstrate that the difference in subjective value between two pieces of evidence is the primary factor influencing the magnitude of the recency effect, regardless of whether the evidence is consistent or inconsistent. This latter finding is unique and contrary to previous research and theory.     

An evaluation of the reliability of probability judgments across response modes and over time

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary condition for validity, this oversight is significant. The present study was motivated by that oversight. We investigated the reliability of probability measures derived from three response modes: numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. Unlike previous studies, the experiment was designed to distinguish systematic deviations in probability judgments, such as those due to experience or practice, from random deviations. It was found that subjects assessed probabilities reliably for all three assessment methods regardless of the reliability measures employed. However, a small but statistically significant decrease over time in the magnitudes of assessed probabilities was observed. This effect was linked to a decrease in subjects overconfidence during the course of the experiment.     

Double agency and the ethics of rationing health care: a response to Marcia Angell

The arguments against doctors as "double agents" that are presented by Marcia Angell in the preceding article do not defeat the core justification for rationing some relatively high-expense, low-benefit care, and they do not enable us to conclude that clinicians should be barred from any active, substantive role in decisions to limit that care. They do, however, reveal several important conditions that need to govern cost-conscious medial practice in order to preserve an ethic of fidelity to patients: insurers' profits and providers' incomes must be fair, providers must inform patients of any economic reasons that lead to the foregoing of care, and "direct incentive" arrangements must not be used to contain costs.     

Child and adolescent services research at the national institute of mental health: Research opportunities in an emerging field

This article describes an important new area of research on services for children and adolescents with mental disorders at the National Institute of Mental Health, the parameters of mental health services research for youth, and the opportunities that are available for grant-funded investigations in this area.     

Nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts in adolescents

To determine the frequency and correlates of nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts in 12–14 year olds, a two stage epidemiologic survey with a self-administered questionnaire (N=3283) followed by a psychiatric interview of a subsample of the adolescents and their parents (N=444) was used. Prevalence estimates of interview validated nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts were 2.46% in males and 2.79% in females. Significant relationships were found between nonsuicidal physically self-damaging acts and suicidal ideation, major depression and undesirable life events. Data suggest that physically self-damaging acts occur at substantial rates during early adolescence. The strong correlation between nonsuicidal self-destructive acts and both suicidal ideation and major depression clarifies prior conflicting reports in the literature and suggests that a history of self-damaging acts should be taken into consideration when evaluating for possible depression and suicide risk.     

The effects of exposure to different sources of sexual information on sexual behavior: Comparing a “sex-expert system” to other educational material

Sexpert, an expert computer program designed to counsel couples on their sexual relationships, was evaluated. Eighty-one heterosexual couples were assigned to one of three experimental manipulations (Sexpert, video, and self-help book) or a control condition. Daily sexual behavior monitoring forms and structured retrospective reports served as measures of baseline and post-manipulation behavior. Daily monitoring of sexual behavior failed to show significant changes occurring after the manipulations. However, retrospective data concerning the postmanipulation period show that compared with the control, the Sexpert, video, and book manipulations had a significant positive impact on couples’ sexual behavior, communication, and learning about sexuality. Sexpert, video, and book were similarly evaluated, except that Sexpert was evaluated as more engaging. In addition, subjects retrospectively reported positive changes in communication, relationship satisfaction, and sexual behavior during the baseline period. This suggests that daily behavioral monitoring is intrusive and may confound the variables measured by it.     

Time-stamping computer events to report .1-msec accuracy of events in the Micro Experimental Laboratory

A critical problem in most real-time programming tasks is the verification that timing of the presented displays and recorded events occur at the expected times. It is often difficult for psychologists to verify critical timing because of the lack of costly specialized tools and technicians to measure events with millisecond accuracy. Algorithms utilized in a new Time Audit mechanism, added to the Micro Experimental Laboratory, are described. This new mechanism involves the recording and time stamping of all input and output events with 0.1-msec accuracy. This allows the experimenter to determine the initiation, duration, and termination of each event and also makes it possible to relate these events to the synchronization of the screen refresh cycle. A customized user interface provides a time log and event-tracing feature that enables nonprogrammers to determine the duration of command execution to the .1-msec level, allowing rapid, precise assessment of program execution. The resulting time log provides a detailed specification of the experimental events for debugging and a permanent record of the experimental procedure.     

Tensorial basis to the constancy of perceived object extent over variations of dynamic touch

Subjects wielded occluded rods, with or without attached masses, and reported the distances reachable with their distal tips. Experiments 1–3 compared wielding about the wrist, the elbow, and the shoulder. Experiments 4 and 5 compared free wielding, using the whole arm, with wielding only about the wrist. The two comparisons, respectively, were of spatial and temporal variations in the rod’s rotational inertia. Perceived extent was found to be constant in both comparisons. This constancy was tied to the inertia tensorI _ij defined about a point that remains a fixed distance from the object during wielding—an invariant of the spatially and temporally dependent patterning of mechanical energy impressed upon the tissues of the body. Discussion focused on the reciprocal action and perception capabilities of multisegmented limbs, the tensorial relations in the neurobiology of dynamic touch, and the strategy of understanding perceptual constancy through invariants.     

Further evidence for phonological constraints on visual lexical access: TOWED primes FROG

If the phonological codes of visually presented words are assembled-rapidly and automatically for use in lexical access, then words that sound alike should induce similar activity within the internal lexicon.Towed is homophonous with TOAD, which is semantically related tofrog, andbeach is homophonous withbeech, which is semantically related totree. Stimuli such as these were used in a priming-of-namingtask, in which words homophonous with associates of the target words preceded the targets at an onset asynchrony of 100 msec. Relative to spelling controls (trod, bench), the low-frequencytowed and the high-frequencybeach speeded up the naming offrog andtree, respectively, to the same degree. This result was discussed in relation to the accumulating evidence for the primacy of phonological constraints in visual lexical access. nt]mis|This research was supported in part by National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Grants HD-08945 and HD-0 1994 to the first author and Haskins Laboratories, respectively.     

Mental Arithmetic: A Componential Analysis of Speed-of-Processing Across Monolingual,Weak Bilingual,and Strong Bilingual Adults

Two experiments compared rates of solving simple and complex addition and multiplication problems in groups of speakers of French or English in Experiment 1 (n = 35) and Spanish or English in Experiment 2 (n = 84). Subjects were divided into groups of English unilinguals, weak bilinguals, and strong bilinguals according to their performance on a naming task. In both experiments, simple problems consisted of two single-digit numbers. At least three single-digit numbers were used for complex problems in Experiment 1 and double-digit numbers in Experiment 2. Mean solution times, particularly for complex problems, were lowest for the monolingual group, followed in turn by the weak bilingual and strong bilingual groups, but these differences were not statistically reliable in either experiment. In Experiment 2, however, componential analyses of solution times indicated that strong bilingual subjects were slower at executing the carry operation when solving complex problems, relative to the two remaining groups. Results were interpreted in terms of the relationship between bilingualism and the representation and processing of numerical information.