CHANGING THE STRUCTURE OF INTUITIVE ESTIMATES OF TIME-SAVINGS

SVENSON, O. Changing the structure of intuitive estimates of time-savings. Scand. J. Psychol. , 1971, 12, 131–134.–Estimates of time saved when increasing an original assumed mean speed to a higher one were collected for different distances and combinations of velocities. Following each answer in five learning phases one group of subjects was given information about the correct time-gain. A control group taking part only in the ten test phases of the experiment gave estimates systematically differing from real time-gains following a previously suggested relation. The estimates given by the experimental group were improved to the same degree as the control group's estimates were gradually better approximated by the previously found relation.     

Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?

In this study subjects were asked about their competence as drivers in relation to a group of drivers. The results showed that a majority of subjects regarded themselves as more skillful and less risky than the average driver in each group respectively. This result was compared with similar recent findings in other fields. Finally, the consequences for planning and risk taking of seeing oneself as more competent than others were discussed briefly.     

Differentiation and consolidation theory of human decision making: A frame of reference for the study of pre- and post-decision processes

Differentiation and Consolidation Theory of decision making models human decision making as an active process in which one alternative is gradually differentiated from other available alternatives. The theory is based on the assumption that it is not sufficient to choose the best alternative, but that a decision involves the selection and creation of a candidate that is sufficiently superior for a decision. This is achieved in differentiation processes which are wholistic, structural or process related. To exemplify, structural differentiation includes both facts and attractiveness restructuring. Following a decision, the theory predicts consolidation processes which work in favor of the chosen alternative. Both differentiation and consolidation are driven by the fact that through experience with the impredictability of the future, a decision maker has learned to prepare for threats against the chosen alternatives. The further this alternative has been differentiated and consolidated, the less the risk of post-decision ambiguity, regret or decision reversal. The study is concluded with references to othee decision theories some of which are viewed as subtheories of Differentiation and Consolidation Theory.     

MULTIDIMENSIONAL RATIO SCALING AND MULTIDIMENSIONAL SIMILARITY OF SIMPLE GEOMETRIC FIGURES

The special case of purely qualitative multidimensional similarity was studied in four experiments concerned with simple geometric figures. A previously proposed equation did not describe the relation between subjective similarity and angular separation of the percept vectors. Factor analyses indicate that in the 'homogeneous' experiments (with parallelogram figures) there were two pairs of inversely related subjective attributes which vary as a function of the difference between the horizontal and vertical axes of the parallelogram, and that in the 'heterogeneous' experiments (different figures) there were four main independent subjective attributes.     

Strategies used by children when solving simple subtractions

Ten children, 9–11 years old, solved all subtraction problems in the form of M?N=…, where 0 ? M ? 13, 0 ? N ? 13 and M ? N. The solution times were analysed and used for the formulation of a process model for subtraction. The model involves memory processes on two different levels, called reproductive and reconstructive respectively. When M=N, N=1, and M=2N the answers were quickly retrieved in reproductive memory processes. The reconstructive processes were found to be analogous to one of two counting procedures, viz. counting up and counting down. In general, the counting process starts either on N (when M < 2N) and counts up to reach the answer, or on M (when M > 2N) and counts down to reach the answer. This may reflect an effort to minimize the number of steps to be counted. However, when M > 10 and N < 10 a problem is always solved in a decrementing counting process. When M=10 many subtractions are solved in a reproductive memory process and the number 10 is also important as a point of reference for solving subtractions when M > 10 and N < 10.     

Cognitive bias and attitude distortion of a priority decision

Cognitive Processing - The resource saving bias is a cognitive bias describing how resource savings from improvements of high-productivity units are overestimated compared to improvements of less...