Luck Attributions and Cognitive Bias

Philosophers have developed three theories of luck: the probability theory, the modal theory, and the control theory. To help assess these theories, we conducted an empirical investigation of luck attributions. We created eight putative luck scenarios and framed each in either a positive or a negative light. Furthermore, we placed the critical luck event at the beginning, middle, or end of the scenario to see if the location of the event influenced luck attributions. We found that attributions of luckiness were significantly influenced by the framing of the scenario and by the location of the critical event. Positively framing an event led to significantly higher lucky ratings than negatively framing the same exact event. And the closer a negative event was placed toward the end of a scenario, the more unlucky the event was rated. Overall, our results raise the possibility that there is no such thing as luck and thereby pose serious challenges to the three prominent theories of luck. We instead propose that luck may be a cognitive illusion, a mere narrative device used to frame stories of success or failure.     

A Visual Illustration of Induction in Multilevel Methods: The Problem of Leaders Awarding Countervailing Merit Components

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to illustrate the use of a multilevel technique, Within and Between Analysis (WABA), for inductively investigating the impact of how supervisory groups influence the process of awarding merit raises (permanent) and performance bonuses (temporary). From a levels of analysis perspective, is this relationship best modeled at the individual subordinate, the whole supervisory-group, or the within-group level?

Design

Archival merit pay data for 2 years were obtained for 71 managers and professionals nested within 21 supervisory groups who encompassed the entire management hierarchy of a 500+ person-manufacturing plant.

Findings

What appeared to be a countervailing relationship at the individual level (r _total = ?.64***), in which raises and bonuses were negatively correlated, was found to be a countervailing relationship at the whole supervisory-group level (r _between = ?.79*** vs. r _within = ?.36*). Given the statistically significant differences between supervisory groups, an induction toward a whole-group effect was made. These countervailing findings were replicated at the group level in the subsequent year’s data.

Implications

The whole-group effect indicates that managers were attempting to create some type of within-group equity by (1) minimizing variability within their groups, and (2), at the same time, trading off raises for bonuses at the whole-group level.

Originality

The application of WABA focuses on testing entities as well as variables, and it can provide a generalizable method for investigating levels of analysis issues in merit pay programs without necessarily advocating that only one level of analysis is universally potent. WABA also allows for the inductive investigation of additional levels of analysis as well as a variety of boundary conditions.     

Setting Up Spaces for Collaboration in Industry Between Researchers from the Natural and Social Sciences

Policy makers call upon researchers from the natural and social sciences to collaborate for the responsible development and deployment of innovations. Collaborations are projected to enhance both the technical quality of innovations, and the extent to which relevant social and ethical considerations are integrated into their development. This could make these innovations more socially robust and responsible, particularly in new and emerging scientific and technological fields, such as synthetic biology and nanotechnology. Some researchers from both fields have embarked on collaborative research activities, using various Technology Assessment approaches and Socio-Technical Integration Research activities such as Midstream Modulation. Still, practical experience of collaborations in industry is limited, while much may be expected from industry in terms of socially responsible innovation development. Experience in and guidelines on how to set up and manage such collaborations are not easily available. Having carried out various collaborative research activities in industry ourselves, we aim to share in this paper our experiences in setting up and working in such collaborations. We highlight the possibilities and boundaries in setting up and managing collaborations, and discuss how we have experienced the emergence of ‘collaborative spaces.’ Hopefully our findings can facilitate and encourage others to set up collaborative research endeavours.     

Divided We Stand: The Politics of the Atheist Movement in the United States

The United States is one of the most religious countries in the Western world. Yet a notable feature of the past decade has been the growth of a self-conscious, politically active atheist movement. Academic analysis of this topic, however, remains limited. This article addresses this lacuna by examining the political dimension of the US atheist movement across a number of themes, including its organisational structure and composition, as well as its goals, strategies, and direction. Deploying insights drawn from Social Movement Theory, it shows that the development of the movement has been shaped by a number of factors which have facilitated growth, but which have also led to a series of internal tensions and schisms that could threaten its ability to exert political influence.     

Influence of personality,age, sex,and estrous state on chimpanzee problem-solving success

Despite the importance of individual problem solvers for group- and individual-level fitness, the correlates of individual problem-solving success are still an open topic of investigation. In addition to demographic factors, such as age or sex, certain personality dimensions have also been revealed as reliable correlates of problem-solving by animals. Such correlates, however, have been little-studied in chimpanzees. To empirically test the influence of age, sex, estrous state, and different personality factors on chimpanzee problem-solving, we individually tested 36 captive chimpanzees with two novel foraging puzzles. We included both female (N = 24) and male (N = 12) adult chimpanzees (aged 14–47 years) in our sample. We also controlled for the females’ estrous state—a potential influence on cognitive reasoning—by testing cycling females both when their sexual swelling was maximally tumescent (associated with the luteinizing hormone surge of a female’s estrous cycle) and again when it was detumescent. Although we found no correlation between the chimpanzees’ success with either puzzle and their age or sex, the chimpanzees’ personality ratings did correlate with responses to the novel foraging puzzles. Specifically, male chimpanzees that were rated highly on the factors Methodical, Openness (to experience), and Dominance spent longer interacting with the puzzles. There was also a positive relationship between the latency of females to begin interacting with the two tasks and their rating on the factor Reactivity/Undependability. No other significant correlations were found, but we report tentative evidence for increased problem-solving success by the females when they had detumescent estrous swellings.     

Emotion-induced blindness reflects competition at early and late processing stages: An ERP study

Emotion-induced blindness (EIB) refers to impaired awareness of items appearing soon after an irrelevant, emotionally arousing stimulus. Superficially, EIB appears to be similar to the attentional blink (AB), a failure to report a target that closely follows another relevant target. Previous studies of AB using event-related potentials suggest that the AB results from interference with selection (N2 component) and consolidation (P3b component) of the second target into working memory. The present study applied a similar analysis to EIB and, similarly, found that an irrelevant emotional distractor suppressed the N2 and P3b components associated with the following target at short lags. Emotional distractors also elicited a positive deflection that appeared to be similar to the P_D component, which has been associated with attempts to suppress salient, irrelevant distractors (Kiss, Grubert, Petersen, & Eimer, 2012; Sawaki, Geng, & Luck, 2012; Sawaki & Luck, 2010). These results suggest that irrelevant emotional pictures gain access to working memory, even when observers are attempting to ignore them and, like the AB, prevent access of a closely following target.     

University Students’ Perceptions of Academic Cheating: Triangulating Quantitative and Qualitative Findings

Using a parallel mixed-methods design, the current study examined university students’ perceptions of academic cheating through collecting and analyzing both the quantitative and qualitative data. Our quantitative findings corroborate previous research that male students have engaged more in academic cheating than females based on students’ self-reports, and that undergraduate students are less willing to discuss issues on academic cheating as compared with their graduate counterparts. Five themes emerged from the thematic analysis of the qualitative data: (1) flexible definitions for cheating, (2) environmental promotion of cheating, (3) the moral transgression of cheating, (4) cheating as an ambiguous justification, and (5) cheating as a conscious decision making process. The mixed-methods findings indicate that there is no relationship between students’ gender or classification and their endorsements of the qualitative themes. However, non-White students are more likely to endorse the theme “cheating as an ambiguous justification.” Implications for reducing and preventing academic cheating at the university level are discussed.     

The effect of red on male perceptions of female attractiveness: Moderation by baseline attractiveness of female faces

Past research has demonstrated the importance of color in a variety of social contexts, including human mating. For example, red increases heterosexual men's feelings of attraction toward women. In the current work, this basic red‐attraction link is qualified by the initial attractiveness of female faces. In two experiments, red enhanced men's ratings of female attractiveness, but only for faces pre‐rated as attractive; red had no influence on perceptions of initially unattractive faces. Additionally, Experiment 1 manipulated how long participants viewed attractive and unattractive faces as an exploratory test of when color and face features are integrated. The findings show that initial female attractiveness moderates the influence of red on judgments of attractiveness even when the faces are viewed for extremely short exposures. The present findings identify an important boundary condition of the red‐attractiveness effect and provide an initial indication of where in the processing stream color impacts social judgments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.