Conceptual fallacies in subjective probability

Subjective probability considered as a logic of partial belief succumbs to three fundamental fallacies. These concern the representation of preference via expectation, the measurability of partial belief, and the normalization of belief.     

Book reviews

Current Psychology -     

Rapid error correction during human arm movements: evidence for central monitoring

Studies were made of rapid error correction movements in eight subjects performing a visually guided tracking task involving flexion-extension movements about the elbow. Subjects were required to minimize reaction times in this two-choice task. Errors in initial movement direction occurred in about 3% of the trials. Error correction times (time from initiation to reversal of movement in incorrect direction) ranged from 30-150 ms. The first sing of correction of the error movement was a suppression of the electromyographic (EMG) activity in the muscle producing the error movement. This suppression started as early as 20-40 ms after the initiation of the error-related EMG activity and as much as 50 ms before any overt sign of limb movement. The correction of the error movement was also accompanied by an increase in the drive to the muscle which moved the arm in the correct direction. This increased activity always occurred after the initiation of the error movement. it is concluded that the first step in the error correction, suppression of drive to the muscle producing the error movement, cannot be based on information from the moving limb. It is thus suggested that this earliest response to the error movement is based on central monitoring of the commands for movement.     

The effect of microlevel and macrolevel signaling on learning with 360° videos

The application of 360° videos raised the attention of educators and researchers, as it appears to be an approachable option to mediate complete environments in educational settings. However, challenges emerge from the perspective of educational psychology. Learning irrelevant cognitive strains might be imposed because it is necessary to navigate through spherical material. However, these potential downsides could be compensated for using signaling techniques. In a two (macrolevel vs. no macrolevel signaling) × two (microlevel vs. no microlevel signaling) factorial between-subjects design plus control group, 215 fifth-and sixth-grade students will watch a 360° video about visual and behavioral characteristics of animals. Learning outcomes, cognitive load, disorientation, and presence will be investigated. It is expected that macrolevel signaling will enhance learning and presence and reduce cognitive load and disorientation. Microlevel signaling will have comparable advantages, but these effects will be more pronounced when macrolevel signaling is implemented.     

Ingroup Versus Outgroup Perceptions of the Characteristics of High-Risk Youth: Negative Stereotyping1

Adolescents tend to categorize themselves and their peers into discrete ingroups and outgroups. A comparison of ingroup versus outgroup perceptions of the characteristics of high-risk youth was investigated. Based on current stereotype research, we examined the perspective that outgroup members would hold a more extreme stereotype of high-risk youth compared to the perceptions of ingroup members. A total of 955 7th- and 10th-grade southern California adolescents completed a questionnaire regarding the characteristics of their own peer group and a high-risk group. Support was obtained for an extremity of judgement effect. Outgroup youth perceived that their high-risk peers engaged in fewer school and nonschool low-risk activities, more high-risk activities, and greater drug use than did ingroup members. Outgroup members also held perceptions of high-risk youth as less likely to hold a white-collar job than did the ingroup members. The perceptions that adolescents have of these groups may play major roles in their own social behavior. The implications of these results for future tobacco use prevention programs are considered.     

A call for a pluralist epistemological understanding in the assessment and evaluation of counselling

The authors outline and posit the futility of the 'paradigm war' between reductionistic/positivistic and phenomenological/naturalistic philosophies within counselling evaluation, pointing out that the notion of such competition is itself based on positivist thinking. They trace attempts at creating a 'truce' in the war based on strict demarcation of territory. They conclude that in the longer term more might be gained by accepting the veracity of both philosophies and creating a pluralist model which will be more fully equipped to evaluate the human process of counselling.     

Driving assessment with computer-video scenarios: More is sometimes better

Several factors are critical in designing effective simulator systems for driving research and driver assessment. First, there is cost, in terms of which, less is better. Costly systems are sometimes fine for specific research purposes, but they are impractical for most other purposes. Second, there is realism; in this case, more may be better, but we don’t know how much realism is really necessary for good prediction of actual driving behaviors. Recent evidence suggests that real-world clutter may enhance prediction, but it also makes interpreting research more difficult. More realism may increase cost, but this is not necessarily the case. Third, there is user-friendliness, in terms of which, again, more is better. Systems that are easier to operate require less-highly trained personnel; hence, increasing user-friendliness also decreases cost, especially for assessment. We demonstrated a highly user-friendly, low-cost, moderately realistic, and partly interactive computer-video driving research and assessment system. In recent research, we obtained multipleR values ofA7 for older drivers with only three to four scenarios predicting a real-world crash index.