Apocalyptic Argument and the Anticipation of Catastrophe: the Prediction of Risk and the Risks of Prediction

This essay proposes to extend the model of apocalyptic argument developedin my recent book Arguing the Apocalypse (OLeary, 1994) beyond the study ofreligious discourse, by applying this model to the debate over awell-publicized earthquake prediction that caused a widespread panic in theAmerican midwest in December, 1990. The first section of the essay willsummarize the essential elements of apocalyptic argument as I have earlierdefined them; the second section will apply the model to the case of the NewMadrid, Missouri, earthquake prediction, in order to demonstrate thatcertain patterns of reasoning characteristic of religious apocalyptic arepresent in the discourse over an anticipated local disaster. My ultimatepurpose is to show that predictions of global and local catastrophe mayserve as extreme cases that will illuminate the dynamics of predictiveargument in general. Thus my argument will seek to undercut Daniel Bellsdistinction between prophecy and prediction (Bell, 1973) by establishingthat these discourses share identifiable formal and substantivecharacteristics, and depend for their rhetorical effect on anxiety, hope,far, and excitement as modes of temporal anticipation.     

Ethnocentrism and Authoritarianism in the Police: Challenging Stereotypes and Reconceptualizing Ingroup Identification1

Reports of community alienation and high ingroup identification in the police suggest that they are a particularly ethnocentric group. To empirically test this hypothesis, a sample of urban police officers was surveyed to ascertain their social identity pattern. Results indicated a high level of peer solidarity, community alienation differentiated on the basis of race and social class, and the perception that the source of alienation lies more with the community than with the officers themselves. A central finding was that those officers who identified most strongly with peers also tended to report lower levels of alienation from the community groups. This finding, in conjunction with unremarkable levels of authoritarianism and perceived stress in the sample, challenges the stereotype of the ethnocentric, authoritarian, and stressed out police officer. Results are placed within a novel framework for understanding the police solidarity phenomenon, and implications for police-community relations are discussed.     

The Heritability of Characteristics Associated with Dispositional Empathy

ABSTRACT This investigation used data from Loehlin and Nichols's (1976) study of over 800 sets of twins to examine evidence for the heritability of three facets of empathy: empathic concern, personal distress, and perspective taking. Expert judges first identified sets of adjectives, included within Loehlin and Nichols's original data, which reflected each empathy construct; these items were then validated in an independent sample. Comparisons of the responses given to these items by identical and fraternal twins in the Loehlin and Nichols investigation revealed evidence of significant heritability for characteristics associated with the two affective facets of empathy—empathic concern and personal distress—but not for the nonaffective construct of perspective taking. This pattern is consistent with the view that temperamental emotionality may underlie the heritability of affective empathy.     

Effects of parental alcoholism and life stress on hispanic and non-hispanic caucasian adelescents: A prospective study

Investigated ethnicity and parental alcoholism as factors that might influence the stress vulnerability of adolescents. It extended an initial cross-sectional study of this same sample by adding two annual assessments which allowed for additional cross-sectional analyses and longitudinal tests. Hispanic and Caucasian adolescents (N=306 at Time 1) completed measures of their own life stress, family conflict, and alcohol use. Their parents reported on adolescents' internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Cross-sectional analyses at Time 2, and prospective analyses involving Time 1 and Time 2 measures were, for the most part, consistent with the original study's results. Caucasian adolescents and children of alcoholic parents appeared to be more vulnerable to stress than Hispanic adolescents and children of nonalcoholic parents. Family conflict was a partial explanation for this increased vulnerability. This research was supported by National Institute on Drug Abuse Grant DA05227 to Laurie Chassin (pricipal investigator) and Manuel Barrera, Jr. (coprincipal investigator). Susan Li was supported by an American Psychological Association Minority Fellowship Award. Portions of this research were presented at the conference, “Resiliency in Families: Racial and Ethnic Minority Families in America” that was held at the University of Wisconsin, May 31–June 2, 1994.     

Perceptual scaling of synthesized musical timbres: Common dimensions,specificities, and latent subject classes

To study the perceptual structure of musical timbre and the effects of musical training, timbral dissimilarities of synthesized instrument sounds were rated by professional musicians, amateur musicians, and nonmusicians. The data were analyzed with an extended version of the multidimensional scaling algorithm CLASCAL (Winsberg & De Soete, 1993), which estimates the number of latent classes of subjects, the coordinates of each timbre on common Euclidean dimensions, a specificity value of unique attributes for each timbre, and a separate weight for each latent class on each of the common dimensions and the set of specificities. Five latent classes were found for a three-dimensional spatial model with specificities. Common dimensions were quantified psychophysically in terms of log-rise time, spectral centroid, and degree of spectral variation. The results further suggest that musical timbres possess specific attributes not accounted for by these shared perceptual dimensions. Weight patterns indicate that perceptual salience of dimensions and specificities varied across classes. A comparison of class structure with biographical factors associated with degree of musical training and activity was not clearly related to the class structure, though musicians gave more precise and coherent judgments than did nonmusicians or amateurs. The model with latent classes and specificities gave a better fit to the data and made the acoustic correlates of the common dimensions more interpretable.     

Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy: A Tough-Minded Therapy for a Tender-Minded Profession

Objections to Rational-Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) seem to exceed the mere rational preference for one approach over another. Ziegler suggested that James's dichotomy between Tough- and Tender-Mindedness might explain REBT's appeal to some and its failure to attract others. REBT is a predominantly Tough-Minded therapy, but the counseling profession is largely Tender Minded. In this article, the author examines why Tender-Minded counselors may not accept REBT, what common misperceptions of REBT may contribute to this rejection, and how the two might be reconciled. Intervention strategies for Tender-Minded counselors are suggested.