Is "Change Blindness" Attenuated by Domain-specific Expertise? An Expert-Novices Comparison of Change Detection in Football Images

When an aspect of a visual image is altered, observers often fail to notice the change. Recent studies suggest that successful change detection requires the observer to attend to and effortfully encode the changing aspect between the images. In this study we addressed the question of whether individual characteristics of the observer, namely expertise in a domain, selectively influence the ability to detect changes in images from that domain. A total of 48 individuals, half of whom were experts in the sport of American football and half of whom were American football novices, were presented alternating sequences of football-related and unrelated images. Our results indicate that expertise in a specific domain increases observers' sensitivity to semantic changes of domain-related images. Implications for the development of diagnostic tools are briefly addressed.     

A Bayesian Approach to More Stable Estimates of Group-Level Effects in Contextual Studies

Multilevel analyses are often used to estimate the effects of group-level constructs. However, when using aggregated individual data (e.g., student ratings) to assess a group-level construct (e.g., classroom climate), the observed group mean might not provide a reliable measure of the unobserved latent group mean. In the present article, we propose a Bayesian approach that can be used to estimate a multilevel latent covariate model, which corrects for the unreliable assessment of the latent group mean when estimating the group-level effect. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the choice of different priors for the group-level variance of the predictor variable and to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood approach implemented in the software Mplus. Results showed that, under problematic conditions (i.e., small number of groups, predictor variable with a small ICC), the Bayesian approach produced more accurate estimates of the group-level effect than the maximum likelihood approach did.     

The Impact of Regulatory Fit on Performance in an Inattentional Blindness Paradigm

The influence of timing and frequency of instructions on the reasoning of jurors in a simulated grand larceny trial was investigated. Mock jurors were given definitions of grand larceny before and after the testimony, only before, only after, or not at all. Although timing of instructions was not significantly related to reasoning or to verdicts, frequency of instructions influenced the aspects of testimony deemed relevant and increased juror use of legal rules in making verdicts. Selective encoding of testimony could not account for the instruction effect.     

Carnapian explications,experimental philosophy,and fruitful concepts

It seems natural to think that Carnapian explication and experimental philosophy can go hand in hand. But what exactly explicators can gain from the data provided by experimental philosophers remains controversial. According to an influential proposal by Shepherd and Justus, explicators should use experimental data in the process of ‘explication preparation’. Against this proposal, Mark Pinder has recently suggested that experimental data can directly assist an explicator’s search for fruitful replacements of the explicandum. In developing his argument, he also proposes a novel aspect of what makes a concept fruitful, namely, that it is taken up by the relevant community. In this paper, I defend explication preparation against Pinder’s objections and argue that his uptake proposal conflates theoretical and practical success conditions of explications. Furthermore, I argue that Pinder’s suggested experimental procedure needs substantial revision. I end by distinguishing two kinds of explication projects, and showing how experimental philosophy can contribute to each of them.     

Cultural Interpretations of Global Information? Hindsight Bias after Reading Wikipedia Articles across Cultures

Summary: Hindsight bias is the mistaken belief that an outcome could have been foreseen once it is known. But what happens after learning about an event? Can reading biased media amplify hindsight distortions? And do people from different cultural backgrounds — with different cognitive thinking styles — draw equal conclusions from equal media reports? We report two studies with Wikipedia articles and samples from different cultures (Study 1: Germany, Singapore, USA, Vietnam, Japan, Sweden, N = 446; Study 2: USA, Vietnam, N = 144). Participants read one of two article versions (foresight and hindsight) about the Fukushima Nuclear Plant and estimated the likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability of the nuclear disaster. Reading the hindsight article increased individuals' hindsight bias independently of analytic or holistic thinking style. Having excluded survey language as potential impact factor (Study 2), this result remains. Our findings extend prior research on hindsight bias by demonstrating the amplifying effect of additional (biased) information on hindsight bias. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Identification and Non-normal Simulation in Ordinal Covariance and Item Response Models

Psychometrika - A standard approach for handling ordinal data in covariance analysis such as structural equation modeling is to assume that the data were produced by discretizing a multivariate...     

Constraining (mathematical) imagination by experience: Nieuwentijt and van Musschenbroek on the abuses of mathematics

Synthese - Like many of their contemporaries Bernard Nieuwentijt (1654–1718) and Pieter van Musschenbroek (1692–1761) were baffled by the heterodox conclusions which Baruch Spinoza...     

“License to Fail”: Goal definition,leader group prototypicality,and perceptions of leadership effectiveness after leader failure

Leaders who fail to achieve group or organizational goals risk losing follower endorsement. We propose a model in which leader characteristics (leader group prototypicality—the leader’s representativeness of group identity) and goal definition (a maximal goal that ideally would be reached vs. a minimal goal that ought to be reached) interact to affect leadership perceptions after failure. Group prototypical (vs. non-prototypical) leaders are proposed to receive more trust in leadership and, therefore, to be evaluated as more effective by their followers after failing to achieve a maximal goal, but not after failing to achieve a minimal goal. This model was supported in a series of four studies including experimental, field, and scenario paradigms. In addition, we showed that this model holds only after failure and not after success, and more for followers who identify strongly (vs. weakly) with their group.     

Hindsight bias doesn't always come easy: causal models, cognitive effort, and creeping determinism

Creeping determinism, a form of hindsight bias, refers to people's hindsight perceptions of events as being determined or inevitable. This article proposes, on the basis of a causal-model theory of creeping determinism, that the underlying processes are effortful, and hence creeping determinism should disappear when individuals lack the cognitive resources to make sense of an outcome. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants were asked to read a scenario while they were under either low or high processing load. Participants who had the cognitive resources to make sense of the outcome perceived it as more probable and necessary than did participants under high processing load or participants who did not receive outcome information. Experiment 3 was designed to separate 2 postulated subprocesses and showed that the attenuating effect of processing load on hindsight bias is not due to a disruption of the retrieval of potential causal antecedents but to a disruption of their evaluation. Together the 3 experiments show that the processes underlying creeping determinism are effortful, and they highlight the crucial role of causal reasoning in the perception of past events.