Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: anchoring effects

Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the worst-case scenario (1 boundary of the 80% predictive interval), demonstrated biased understanding of future weather conditions compared with those given both bounds or no uncertainty information. We argue that this was due to an anchoring effect on numeric estimates, which were closer to the worst-case scenario than was warranted and increased linearly as the anchor became more extreme. In many situations tested here, anchoring in numeric estimates also extended to subsequent binary decisions, leading participants with the worst-case scenario to take action more often than did other participants. These results suggest that worst-case scenario forecasts can mislead the user. They appear to convince people that wind speeds will be higher and temperatures will be lower than what are indicated by the forecast. In addition, participants systematically "corrected" the forecast they were given. This effect was most prominent in the condition in which no uncertainty was provided, suggesting that people feel compelled to take uncertainty into account, even when it is not acknowledged by the forecast. Both the anchoring and correction biases were least evident when both bounds were provided, suggesting that balanced uncertainty leads to the best understanding of future weather conditions.     

Chronic stress, cognitive functioning and mental health

This review aims to discuss the evidence supporting the link between chronic stress, cognitive function and mental health. Over the years, the associations between these concepts have been investigated in different populations. This review summarizes the findings that have emerged from older populations as well as from populations suffering from pathological aging, namely Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease. Although older adults are an interesting population to study in terms of chronic stress, other stress-related diseases can occur throughout the lifespan. The second section covers some of these stress-related diseases that have recently received a great deal of attention, namely burnout, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Given that chronic stress contributes to the development of certain pathologies by accelerating and/or exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities that vary from one individual to the other, the final section summarizes data obtained on potential variables contributing to the association between chronic stress and cognition.     

Cognitive-behavioral intervention among women with slight menopausal symptoms: a pilot study

Menopause is associated with a considerable variety of physical, psychological and social symptoms that can be treated using cognitive-behavioral techniques. In the present study, 21 women took part in an eight-week group intervention consisting of weekly two-hour sessions to address their slight symptoms related to the climacteric stage of life. The intervention included: psycho education on menopause, relaxation techniques, nutrition and fitness exercises, Kegel exercises, and problem-solving techniques. A control group was included that did not receive treatment and consisted of 28 women. The results revealed a significant reduction in most symptoms (including depression and anxiety) after intervention as compared to the baseline period. No changes appeared in the control group. The relevance of this work lies in the potential element of prevention this therapeutic package could offer to relieve various symptoms, slight and incipient, during the perimenopausal stage.     

Alignment effect: primary-secondary learning and cognitive styles

The degree to which the way of learning spatial information (primary/secondary learning) and spatial cognitive style (landmark/route/survey) affect orientation specificity (alignment effect) is studied. We think that the most important factor explaining the absence of the alignment effect is the spatial cognitive style. We hypothesise that while landmark participants show an alignment effect after both primary and secondary learning, route participants show this effect only after secondary learning, and survey participants do not show it at all. Participants performed three tasks in order to distinguish their cognitive style; they were then randomly assigned to primary or secondary learning and submitted to directional judgment tasks to verify whether the alignment effect was present. The results confirm our hypothesis.     

Diurnal cycle of salivary cortisol in older adult men and women with subjective complaints of memory deficits and/or depressive symptoms: relation to cognitive functioning

In populations of young and older adults, it has been shown that individuals may be categorized into one of three diurnal subgroups when salivary cortisol levels are assessed over a 2-day period and compared for their consistency across days: a typical subgroup, a flat subgroup, and an inconsistent subgroup. Interestingly, recent studies have reported that the typical subgroup represents the majority of the young and older adult population, a finding that is difficult to reconcile with previous studies showing increased cortisol levels in older adults with depression or cognitive impairments. In order to assess whether a typical diurnal cortisol profile is representative across different subgroups of older adults, we assessed diurnal cortisol cycle representation in a sample of older adults with subjective complaints of depression and/or memory problems. Furthermore, given the robust relationship between cortisol and cognitive function, the present study examined the association between the three diurnal subgroups and cognitive performance. Forty-two older individuals were recruited on the basis of reporting subjective complaints of either memory problems and/or depressive mood. Participants were asked to sample their saliva over a 2-day period and were then asked to undergo a neuropsychological evaluation that taps into short-term memory, declarative memory and language. The results showed that 69% of the sample presented a Flat cycle of salivary cortisol over a 2-day period while 19% presented an inconsistent pattern and 12% presented a typical pattern. Participants in the flat subgroup were significantly impaired on letter verbal fluency. Furthermore, a relationship was found between diurnal cortisol subgroup representation and subjective complaint profile. These findings show that older adults with complaints of memory problems and/or depressive symptoms do not present the typical profile of the diurnal cortisol cycle, and they provide a preliminary view of how diurnal cortisol profile relates to cognitive function during human aging.     

Types of college student-to-student learning: correlated interactions

209 college men and 327 college women took a 20-item Likert survey to assess the types of education-related information students may learn from other students during their informal interactions. Students were very likely to ask other students low level questions such as which professors were good and which classes to take. They were less likely to ask other students about concepts discussed in class and how to solve problems generated in class. If students asked about test taking, these students were also likely to ask about study skills and writing skills for the class. Other research suggests these higher level help-seeking behaviors seem to be related to classroom mastery and achievement.     

Findings on the relationship between Internet addiction and psychological symptoms in Brazilian adults

This study evaluated the prevalence of Internet addiction (IA) and its association with negative psychological symptoms in Brazilian adults. A network analysis was conducted to estimate specific variables and their expected influence on IA. In this cross-sectional study, 15,476 adults (M_age = 37.5, SD = 9.59) completed an open web-based survey. Three questionnaires were used: the Internet Addiction Test (IAT), Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) and Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). Based on IAT scores, participants were classified as No-Risk user (NRU), Low-Risk user (LRU) or High-Risk user (HRU). We observed that 4.8% of the participants were classified in the HRU group. In addition, their risk for severe symptoms of depression was 10 times higher and, for anxiety, seven times higher than that in the NRU group (p < .001). Time spent using smartphones was also significantly higher in the HRU group (M_hours = 5.1, p < .001). The main factors associated with IA were depression, gender and anxiety, but the variable “having children” was the most influential in the IA network. These findings suggest that psychiatric symptoms are the main factors associated with IA among the adult population.     

Artificial Moral Agents: A Survey of the Current Status

Science and Engineering Ethics - One of the objectives in the field of artificial intelligence for some decades has been the development of artificial agents capable of coexisting in harmony with...