“To hope was to expect”: The impact of perspective taking and forecast type on wishful thinking

When forecasting future outcomes, people tend to believe that the outcomes they want to happen are also likely to happen. Despite numerous attempts, few systematic factors have been identified that consistently and robustly reduce wishful thinking (WT) effects. Using elections and sporting event outcomes as contexts, three experiments examined whether taking the perspective of a political rival or opposing fan reduced WT effects. We also examined whether making deliberative (vs. intuitive-based) forecasts was associated with lower WT effects. Online adult samples of U.S. citizens from Mechanical Turk and U.S. college students provided their preferences and forecasts for the U.S. presidential election (Experiments 1 and 2) and a sports competition outcome (Experiment 3). Critically, some participants received perspective taking prompts immediately before providing forecasts. First, results revealed reductions in WT effects when participants engaged in perspective taking. Interestingly, this effect only emerged when intuitive-based forecasts were made first (Experiment 3). Second, intuitive-based forecasts revealed stronger evidence of WT effects. Finally, we found that perspective taking and forming forecasts deliberately promoted a shift in focus away from preferences and toward a consideration of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the entities (i.e., candidates and teams). Theoretical implications for understanding WT effects and applied implications for developing interventions are discussed.     

Religion and the Human Rights Idea

Three recent books focus, in different ways, on the idea of human rights and its relation to religion and religious ethics. All three books discussed here address criticisms of the human rights idea and seek to establish the relationship of religion and human rights with regard to the field of policy. The present discussion begins with an overview that places these three books in the larger context of the development of the human rights idea and its historical relationship with religion. It then turns to Little's book, next to the collection of essays edited by Twiss, Simion, and Petersen, which is described internally as a Festschrift for Little, and then to Hogan's book, and in the final section it explores comparisons among the books.     

Epistemic constraints on practical normativity

What is the relation between what we ought to do, on the one hand, and our epistemic access to the ought-giving facts, on the other? In assessing this, it is common to distinguish ‘objective’ from ‘subjective’ oughts. Very roughly, on the objectivist conception what an agent ought to do is determined by ought-giving facts in such a way that does not depend on the agent’s beliefs about, or epistemic access to, those facts; whereas on the subjectivist conception, what an agent ought to do depends on his beliefs. This paper defends the need for, and explicates, a third category of ‘ought’: ‘warranted oughts’. Section 1 introduces the distinction between objective and subjective ‘oughts’. Sections 2–3 draw attention to some serious problems with each. Section 4 examines, though rejects, a recent attempt to replace subjective ‘oughts’ with objective ‘wide-scope oughts’ operating on belief-action combinations. Section 5 explicates the notion of a warranted ‘ought’ and defends the account against some possible objections. The resulting a picture is one in which an adequate analysis of practical normativity requires both objective and warranted ‘oughts’. Section 6 concludes by responding to a worry about countenancing both.

     

Cardiovascular reactivity to psychological stress in aerobically trained versus untrained mild hypertensives and normotensives

Cardiovascular reactivity to video game and mental arithmetic stressors was compared among three groups of men: aerobically trained mild hypertensives, untrained mild hypertensives, and a comparison group of untrained normotensives. Relative to the untrained hypertensives, the trained hypertensives reacted to the video game with marginally smaller systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure, but there were no significant differences between these groups in reactivity during the mental arithmetic task. Comparisons between each hypertensive group and the normotensive group showed that blood pressure (BP) reactivity of normotensives during the video game was generally similar to that of trained hypertensives but smaller than that of untrained hypertensives. These results indicate that aerobic training, which has been found to reduce resting BP in mild hypertensives, may also exert a favorable impact in reducing cardiovascular reactivity of hypertensives during some stressful situations.     

Adaptation to displacing prisms in human infants.

This research reports a first attempt to study adaptation to laterally displacing prisms in human infants of ages six to ten months. Twenty infants were tested over four days under conditions similar to those used in adult adaptation studies. Evidence was found of vigorous adaptation when infants were exposed to base-right prisms under conditions of active exposure. Detailed consideration is given to the conditions and methods of studying adaptation in infants and implications for adult studies.