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41.
As part of an ongoing study on the prediction of suicide, a replication study was carried out on the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale (NPHSPS), a recently constructed schedule for prediction of potentiality for committed suicide among hospitalized neuropsychiatric patients at the time of release from the hospital. The population consisted of 54 patients who had committed suicide and 50 patients who had not. Overall accuracy of the scale was 81.7 percent, with 95.2 percent accuracy for prediction of the high risk group and 80.0 percent accuracy for prediction of nonsuicidal controls. By computation of posterior probability, the scale is shown to increase accuracy of prediction more than five-fold over use of the base rate (or prior probability) alone, but it is also evident the level of prediction of suicide is still too minimal to permit individual clinical application.  相似文献   
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Although widely studied, previous research of projection in the context of public opinion did not incorporate the distinction between adequate and false projection developed in the cognitive studies: Adequate projection contributes to accurate perceptions of public opinion while false projection impairs it. The analysis presented in this study includes the above distinction, building on two case studies: (1) a dataset comprised of 25 surveys conducted over a period of 10 years (N = 11,313) and (2) a panel study of the 2013 Israeli general election. Relying on the assumptions of the Bayesian model, we tested if frequent news exposure and factual political knowledge reduce false projection. We found that false projection is a highly persistent psychological tendency with little variance. Although news exposure and political knowledge did contribute to a more accurate perception of public opinion, they did not reduce false projection. Conversely, knowledge increased false projection among moderates and had no effect in this respect among proponents of a more extreme ideology. These findings align better with the motivated reasoning model than with the Bayesian model.  相似文献   
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Iterated conditionals of the form If p, then if q, r are an important topic in philosophical logic. In recent years, psychologists have gained much knowledge about how people understand simple conditionals, but there are virtually no published psychological studies of iterated conditionals. This paper presents experimental evidence from a study comparing the iterated form, If p, then if q, r with the “imported,” noniterated form, If p and q, then r, using a probability evaluation task and a truth‐table task, and taking into account qualitative individual differences. This allows us to critically contrast philosophical and psychological approaches that make diverging predictions regarding the interpretation of these forms. The results strongly support the probabilistic Adams conditional and the “new paradigm” that takes this conditional as a starting point.  相似文献   
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Despite its prevalence, killing in war is an experience that may not fit neatly into existing models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its treatment. The context in which killing occurred may be complex. Furthermore, while killing may certainly be fear based, an individual may have also killed in response to losing someone close and experiencing sadness and anger, as opposed to fear. While evidence-based treatments for PTSD may be a good starting point for killing-related trauma, we argue that existing treatments need to be expanded. Complex killing-related cognitions that may not be anticipated or identified, moral injury, self-forgiveness, and loss are all important issues that arise that may need to be addressed in greater detail. Consequently, we have developed a 6- to 8-session individual treatment module for those impacted by killing in war, expressly designed for use with existing evidence-based treatments for PTSD, currently being validated for use in clinical practice. We see this module as supplementary, rather than as a replacement, building on the skills that veterans have already learned within these treatments. By expanding the types of treatments we offer those who have killed in war, we can ensure that we are providing veterans with comprehensive treatment that takes the complexities of war and its aftermath into account.  相似文献   
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Suicide is a major public health problem, and suicide rates are still on the rise. Current strategies for identifying individuals at risk for suicide, such as the use of a patient's self‐reported suicidal ideation or evidence of past suicide attempts, have not been sufficient in reducing suicide rates. Recently, research groups have been focused on determining the acute mental state preceding a suicide attempt. The development of an acute suicidal diagnosis, the Suicide Crisis Syndrome (SCS), is aimed at capturing this state to better treat individuals. The SCS has five main evidence‐based components—entrapment, affective disturbance, loss of cognitive control, hyperarousal, and social withdrawal. The SCS may provide clinicians with the ability to identify individuals who are experiencing an acute pre‐suicidal mental state, regardless of their self‐reported suicidal ideation. Future research leading to the incorporation of this diagnosis into clinical practice could improve the quality of care and reduce the personal, societal, and legal burden of suicide.  相似文献   
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Drawing on psychoanalytic theories of infant development and children’s preverbal memories, this article explores the somatic memories in young children who experienced trauma and the level interventions necessary to facilitate the transformation of these traumas from concrete to symbolic representations. The clinical case of a 3-year-old boy who experienced hospitalizations and multiple surgeries prior to the age of 2 is used to illustrate the efficacy of play therapy for traumatized children. We argue that children do remember traumas from their infancy, and interventions geared toward re-enacting the traumas through play are necessary to help these children symbolize their experiences and alleviate their trauma symptoms.  相似文献   
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