Induction and inference to the best explanation

In this paper I adduce a new argument in support of the claim that IBE is an autonomous (indispensable) form of inference, based on a familiar, yet surprisingly, under-discussed, problem for Hume’s theory of induction. I then use some insights thereby gleaned to argue for the (reductionist) claim that induction is really IBE, and draw some normative conclusions.     

The discontented disciple

“another poetic vagabond and poéte maudit who drifted through life with sovereign unconcern until he disappeared in the Austrian Alps, walking out of his hotel never to return.”

Esslin, The Theatre of the Absurd     

Millenarism in Greco-Roman Palestine

The purpose of this article is to shed light on an ambiguity in Émile Durkheim's theory of social effervescence. Durkheim's failure to distinguish two kinds of effervescence at the heart of the religious rite has left a dangerous legacy in the study of religion. If his work is read, however, in light of René Girard's theory of the violent origins of religion, his analysis of la société can retain the distinction between the effervescence of the crowd in scapegoating and the effervescence of protecting the victims of scapegoating. This thesis is tested by briefly comparing some contemporary essays on Durkheim.     

Do implicit motives and basic psychological needs interact to predict well-being and flow? Testing a universal hypothesis and a matching hypothesis

Self-Determination Theory (Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum Press, New York, 1985) suggests that certain experiences, such as competence, are equally beneficial to everyone’s well-being (universal hypothesis), whereas Motive Disposition Theory (McClelland in Human motivation. Scott, Foresman, Glenview, IL, 1985) predicts that some people, such as those with a high achievement motive, should benefit particularly from such experiences (matching hypothesis). Existing research on motives as moderators of the relationship between basic need satisfaction and positive outcomes supports both these seemingly inconsistent views. Focusing on the achievement motive, we sought to resolve this inconsistency by considering the specificity of the outcome variables. When predicting domain-specific well-being and flow, the achievement motive should interact with felt competence. However, when it comes to predicting general well-being and flow, felt competence should unfold its effects without being moderated by the achievement motive. Two studies confirmed these assumptions indicating that the universal and matching hypotheses are complementary rather than mutually exclusive.     

Resisting the temptation to compete: Self-control promotes cooperation in mixed-motive interactions

This article provides a self-control analysis of mixed-motive interactions, including 2-person social dilemmas and bargaining encounters. We propose that mixed-motive interactions pose a self-control conflict between pursuing immediate benefits through competition and pursuing long-term benefits through cooperation. As such, anticipating high (vs. low) barriers to successful outcomes triggers counteractive self-control operations that increase cooperation, so long as people believe that by doing so they can influence others to reciprocate.     

Pattern specificity in the effect of prior Δƒ on auditory stream segregation

During repeating sequences of low (A) and high (B) tones, perception of two separate streams ("streaming") increases with greater frequency separation (Δ?) between the A and B tones; in contrast, a prior context with large Δ? results in less streaming during a subsequent test pattern. The purpose of the present study was to investigate what aspects of the context pattern are necessary for this context effect to occur. Simply changing the B-tone frequency without an alternating A tone present was not sufficient to cause the effect of prior Δ?, but rather a melodic change between A and B tones was necessary. We further investigated the extent to which the context and test patterns needed to have similar rhythms (xxx-xxx-) and melodies (up-down-flat-up-down), and found that a maximal prior-Δ? effect occurred when the rhythmic patterns of the context and test were similar, regardless of the melodic structure. Thus, the effect of prior Δ? on streaming depended on the presence of (1) at least one melodic change in the context, and (2) similar rhythmic patterns in the context and test.     

Extrinsic Value Orientation and Affective Forecasting: Overestimating the Rewards, Underestimating the Costs

ABSTRACT We examined affective forecasting errors as a possible explanation of the perennial appeal of extrinsic values and goals. Study 1 found that although people relatively higher in extrinsic (money, fame, image) compared to intrinsic (growth, intimacy, community) value orientation (REVO) are less happy, they nevertheless believe that attaining extrinsic goals offers a strong potential route to happiness. Study 2's longitudinal experimental design randomly assigned participants to pursue either 3 extrinsic or 3 intrinsic goals over 4 weeks, and REVO again predicted stronger forecasts regarding extrinsic goals. However, not even extrinsically oriented participants gained well-being benefits from attaining extrinsic goals, whereas all participants tended to gain in happiness from attaining intrinsic goals. Study 3 showed that the effect of REVO on forecasts is mediated by extrinsic individuals' belief that extrinsic goals will satisfy autonomy and competence needs. It appears that some people overestimate the emotional benefits of achieving extrinsic goals, to their potential detriment.     

Achieving Sustainable Gains in Happiness: Change Your Actions, not Your Circumstances*

Although attaining happiness is a nearly universal goal, surprisingly little research has focused on how happiness can be increased and then sustained. Three studies test predictions of a model (Lyubomirsky et al., 2005) positing that sustainable happiness is possible through intentional activity changes, more so than through circumstantial changes. Study 1 shows that less hedonic adaptation is reported in response to activity changes than to circumstantial changes. Study 2 tests a dynamic process model, showing that while both positive activity changes and positive circumstantial changes predict rank-order increases in subjective well-being from Time 1 to Time 2, only activity changes predict maintained gains at Time 3. Study 3 replicates the Study 2 findings and extends them to psychological well-being (Ryff and Keyes, 1995). Implications for positive psychology and “the pursuit of happiness” are discussed. *This work was supported in part by grants from the Positive Psychology Network.