Visual orientation estimation

A systematic error is reported in orientation estimation, in that on average, estimates are closer to the vertical axis than are the stimuli by up to 6 degrees. This systematic error results from a specific mechanism that may be related to depth perception, and that is avoided in certain circumstances or when other mechanisms take over. For example, the estimates of one observer who was a well-trained professional draughtsman did not show this systematic error. Furthermore, for all observers tested, estimation of clock time is not subject to the regular orientation estimation error. Rather, observers tend to estimate times as slightly further from the quarter hour than they really are. Orientation judgement channel capacity was also studied under various conditions. The number of discriminable orientations is far above the magic number "7" limit, reaching over 20 in optimal circumstances. The distribution of discriminable orientations is nonlinear, in that these are more closely packed about the horizontal and vertical axis than at the oblique.     

Escalation behavior in domains related and unrelated to decision makers' academic background

Based on Staw and Ross's (1987) analysis of escalation behavior it was hypothesized that (a) those who are involved with projects related to their academic background will tend to persist in a losing course of action and to judge the situation as reversible more than those who have to make decisions in areas unrelated to their specialty; (b) providing information that the loss is irreversible will decrease the tendency to invest additional resources. A secondary goal of the study was to examine whether there would be any difference in sunk cost decisions when the resource invested is financial as compared to time. Using a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design, a total of 296 students were given eight different scenarios in which relatedness of decision subject-matter to academic background, reversibility of the situation, and type of resources (time or money) were the independent variables, and commitment to a course of action was the dependent variable. The results confirmed the hypotheses. No significant main effect for type of resources (time vs. money) was found. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.The authors thank Dr. Michael Hoffman for his valuable contribution in preparing this paper.     

What Actually Happened to the Jews of Ukraine in 1648?

The question of how many Jews died and how many survived in 1648 has produced much historical discussion. The problem is always the incompatibility of scholarly estimates and what is found in contemporary chronicles. Using demographic tools and applying them to all the regions of the Ukraine, it appears that no more, and possibly much fewer, than fifty percent of the 40,000 or so Jews in that region perished. The survivors mostly returned to their homes and rebuilt. Though speculative, the commensurability of the results argues their probable accuracy. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Political Expectations and Cultural Perceptions in the Arab-Israeli Peace Negotiations

In the various Arab-Israeli peace negotiations that have taken place since the late 1970s, each party entered the process, and continues to function within it, from the vantage point of different political expectations and cultural perceptions. These differences derive from the political features and social structures of the Arab parties and the Israeli side, which range from hierarchical to networked. Israel leans toward hierarchical order, whereas the Arab parties are more networked; these differences in the social and political environments influence the negotiating culture of each party. Hierarchical states develop goal-oriented negotiating cultures, whereas networked states have process-oriented negotiating cultures. The expectations that each side has of the other side to fulfill its part of the bargain are different as well; in hierarchical states such expectations are based on contracts, whereas in networked states such expectations are based on trust. Because it is unlikely that different cultural perceptions and the gap between the parties can be significantly bridged, it may be possible to cope with mutual problems if all parties were willing to accept a reality of perceptional pluralism (i.e., negotiating asymmetric arrangements, rather then each party insisting on mutual accommodation based on its own perspective).     

Category learning from equivalence constraints

Information for category learning may be provided as positive or negative equivalence constraints (PEC/NEC)—indicating that some exemplars belong to the same or different categories. To investigate categorization strategies, we studied category learning from each type of constraint separately, using a simple rule-based task. We found that participants use PECs differently than NECs, even when these provide the same amount of information. With informative PECs, categorization was rapid, reasonably accurate and uniform across participants. With informative NECs, performance was rapid and highly accurate for only some participants. When given directions, all participants reached high-performance levels with NECs, but the use of PECs remained unchanged. These results suggest that people may use PECs intuitively, but not perfectly. In contrast, using informative NECs enables a potentially more accurate categorization strategy, but a less natural, one which many participants initially fail to implement—even in this simplified setting.

Escalation of Commitment: The Effect of Number and Attractiveness of Available Investment Alternatives

Purpose  

The purpose of this study was to examine the hypothesis that decision difficulty increases the likelihood of commitment to a failing project (escalation). The hypothesis was based on findings regarding status quo bias. Three aspects of decision difficulty were tested: equivalence of options, option set size and attractiveness structure of the alternatives.     

Association between Terror Attacks and Suicide Attempts

Based on Durkheim's ‘Control theory,’ we explored the association between frequency of terror attacks in Israel and the frequency of suicide attempts admitted to the Emergency Room of a major general hospital in Tel‐Aviv (1999–2004). Analysis of the six‐year study period as a whole revealed no significant correlation between the variables, with the exception of one 11‐month segment within it (December 2000–October 2001) that did show a statistically significant positive correlation, and in opposition to Durkeim's hypothesis. It is suggested that suicide attempts as a phenomena should be seen as a product of a multivariate model, in which the social context plays a role as well.     

The Role of Biodata and Intelligence in the Predictive Validity of Assessment Centres

The present study assessed three of Klimoski and Brickner's ¹ 1 See Klimoski and Brickner (1987) in reference list.
explanations for assessment centres' predictive validity: criterion contamination, the influence of biodata, and the effect of assessed intellectual level. Data were collected in a major Israeli industrial organisation on the job performance and advancement of 91 managers who had participated in an assessment centre four to seven years earlier. Little empirical support was garnered for Klimoski and Brickner's claims. Assessment centre scores were found to be similarly correlated in a significant fashion with both contaminated and uncontaminated criteria of later management performance. Although biodata and intelligence variables were correlated with assessors' evaluations, they did not notably contribute to the predictive validity of assessment centre scores. It seems that information reached by observing behaviours reflected during exercises and simulations are the main factors affecting the validity of assessment centres.     

Predictors of individual,community and national resiliencies of Israeli Jews and Arabs

The contribution of individual characteristics to predicting individual, community and national resilience of Israeli Jews and Arabs was investigated. Psychological resilience refers to people's assessment of their ability to withstand negative psychological consequences of major afflictions, and to keep functioning despite these adversities. The following hypotheses were examined: 1. The Jewish sample would score higher than the Arab sample on indices of individual, community and national resilience. 2. Men of both groups would score higher compared with women on these resilience indices. 3. Exposure to terror and fear of upcoming war would negatively predict the resilience of both groups. 4. Higher level of religiosity, right wing political attitudes, higher income, higher education, older age and higher sense of coherence will positively predict the investigated resiliencies. The random sample included 1100 Jews and 350 Arabs who participated in an internet survey. Resilience was defined in this study as the balance of individual, community and national strength (protective factors) to vulnerability (risk factors). The results supported the first three hypotheses whereas the fourth hypothesis was supported only for the Jewish sample. The present study indicated that some predictors had universal effect on resilience, whereas others seemed to be culture specific predictors.     

What Provides Justification for Cheating—Producing or Observing Counterfactuals?

When people can profit financially by lying, they do so to the extent to which they can justify their lies. One type of justification is the observation and production of desirable counterfactual information. Here, we disentangle observing and producing of desired counterfactuals and test whether the mere observation is sufficient or whether one actually needs to produce the information in order to justify lying. By employing a modified version of the Die‐Under‐Cup task, we ask participants to privately roll a die three times and to report the outcome of the first die roll (with higher values corresponding to higher payoffs). In all three conditions, participants produce (roll the die) and observe the first die roll, which is relevant for pay. We manipulate whether participants produce and observe versus only observe the second and third die roll outcomes, which are both irrelevant for pay. Results reveal that people lie to the same extent—when producing and observing the counterfactuals, and when merely observing them. It seems that merely observing counterfactual information is sufficient to allow people to use this information to justify their lies. We further test whether creativity and moral disengagement are associated with dishonesty and replicate the finding showing that unethical behavior increases with creativity. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.