Statistical modelling in the investigation of stranger rape

A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ‘new offences’, which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

El papel de las automanifestaciones en las terapias cognitivo-conductuales

RESUMEN

En este artículo Bas examina el concepto automanifestación (en adelante, AM) y desarrolla sus implicaciones terapéuticas. El autor comenta aquellas terapias cognitivo-conductuales que han considerado las AM de un modo central en la interpretación de los problemas y que han confeccionado instrumentos específicos de intervención sobre ellas. En este repaso se hace especial mención del fenómeno de la depresión, aunque también se señalan otras áreas de disfunción. Posteriormente presenta los métodos más utilizados para evaluar las AM y finaliza con una revisión más amplia de un método muy extendido para modificar un tipo de AM especial: las autoinstrucciones, según lo han desarrollado Meichenbaum y otros y orientado hacia la problemática infantil.     

Perceptions of Turkish psychiatric inpatients about therapeutic factors of group psychotherapy

Many studies on therapeutic factors in group psychotherapy were done during the 1970s and 1980s, primarily with Western samples, The present study was carried out in a psychiatric inpatient clinic in Turkey. Using Yalom's (1975) therapeutic factor questionnaire administered at discharge, patients rated existential factor, instillation of hope and self-understanding as the most helpful factors and identification as the least helpful. There were significant differences among patients with regard to gender, age, education, comorbid personality disorder, but not with Axis I diagnosis or number of attended sessions. Patients' and psychiatrist's rating showed significant differences. Differences between this Turkish sample and those reported in common Western literature are discussed under the light of relatedness psychology, which is an important concept of cross-cultural psychology.     

Developing Successful Communication Strategies: A Test of an Integrated Framework for Effective Communication1

In studies of advertising, many communication strategies have been formulated, but little research has been carried out on the process of deciding what strategy can be used best in a particular situation. In social psychology, models have been developed that specify a number of behavioral determinants. Though communication practitioners often use these models, scientific proof of the effectiveness of persuasive messages based on these models is largely absent. In this study, knowledge from advertising studies and social psychology is combined in an integrated framework for effective communication. In an experiment on chocolate‐bar buying behavior, we prove that by making use of this framework, we can predict which advertising strategy is the most effective.     

Vague Expectation Value Loss

Vague subjective probability may be modeled by means of a set of probability functions, so that the represented opinion has only a lower and upper bound. The standard rule of conditionalization can be straightforwardly adapted to this. But this combination has difficulties which, though well known in the technical literature, have not been given sufficient attention in probabilist or Bayesian epistemology. Specifically, updating on apparently irrelevant bits of news can be destructive of one’s explicitly prior expectations. Stability of vague subjective opinion appears to need a more complex model.     

Shari‘a in Sydney and New York: A Perspective from Professionals and Leaders Dealing with Islamic Law

This article explores how Shari‘a is conceptualized and experienced by 50 Muslim legal professionals and leaders in Sydney and New York. It analyses qualitative data on issues concerning the experience of Muslims with Shari‘a, on how this can be improved in both countries and on how compatible Shari‘a is with their respective legal systems. While the Muslim community should not be homogenized in either of these two global cities, the analysis discovers strong similarities with regard to dealing with a parallel legal system and implementing a more formal process. The New York sample expresses stronger support for a more community-based approach, while the focus on Shari‘a compliant business is stronger among the Australian participants. With regard to gender issues, the large majority of the respondents offer a strong reflective approach to dealing with these issues.     

Measuring implementation intentions in the context of the theory of planned behavior

The usefulness of measuring implementation intentions in the context of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was explored among 112 Norwegian college students. They responded to a questionnaire measuring past behavior, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intentions, implementation intentions, and actual performance of regular exercising and recycling of drinking cartons. Implementation intentions were measured using five items relating to recycling and four items relating to exercise, which showed satisfactory internal consistencies. Consistent with the main prediction, the presence of implementation intentions was related to performing the two behaviors, although behavioral intentions were the strongest determinant for both behaviors. The results suggest that the TPB may benefit from inclusion of the concept of implementation intentions to provide a more complete understanding of the psychological process in which motivation is translated into action.     

Determining the bias and variance of a deterministic finger-tracking algorithm

Finger tracking has the potential to expand haptic research and applications, as eye tracking has done in vision research. In research applications, it is desirable to know the bias and variance associated with a finger-tracking method. However, assessing the bias and variance of a deterministic method is not straightforward. Multiple measurements of the same finger position data will not produce different results, implying zero variance. Here, we present a method of assessing deterministic finger-tracking variance and bias through comparison to a non-deterministic measure. A proof-of-concept is presented using a video-based finger-tracking algorithm developed for the specific purpose of tracking participant fingers during a psychological research study. The algorithm uses ridge detection on videos of the participant’s hand, and estimates the location of the right index fingertip. The algorithm was evaluated using data from four participants, who explored tactile maps using only their right index finger and all right-hand fingers. The algorithm identified the index fingertip in 99.78 % of one-finger video frames and 97.55 % of five-finger video frames. Although the algorithm produced slightly biased and more dispersed estimates relative to a human coder, these differences (x=0.08 cm, y=0.04 cm) and standard deviations (σ_x=0.16 cm, σ_y=0.21 cm) were small compared to the size of a fingertip (1.5–2.0 cm). Some example finger-tracking results are provided where corrections are made using the bias and variance estimates.