"Do social networks explain 12-step sponsorship effects? A prospective lagged mediation analysis": Correction to Rynes and Tonigan (2011)

Reports an error in "Do social networks explain 12-step sponsorship effects? A prospective lagged mediation analysis" by Kristina N. Rynes and J. Scott Tonigan (Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, Advanced Online Publication, Sep 5, 2011, np). There is an error in the last paragraph of the Participants section. It was reported that 14.8% of the sample were Asian, however, 14.8% of the participants were American Indian or Alaskan Native and no participants were Asian. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2011-20052-001.) Sponsorship is a basic and important part of the 12-step approach to recovery from substance abuse (Alcoholics Anonymous, 2005) and research has shown that having a sponsor is associated with increased involvement in 12-step programs and improved outcomes (Bond, Kaskutas, & Weisner, 2003; Tonigan & Rice, 2010). However, little is known about how sponsorship improves outcomes. Given research demonstrating bivariate associations between sponsorship and social support for abstinence (Majer, Jason, Ferrari, Venable, & Olson, 2002), we hypothesized that the association between having a sponsor and increased abstinence outcomes would be explained by increases in one's abstinence-based social network. Prospective fully lagged mediational analyses did not support this hypothesis and these results ran counter to findings of five previous studies (cf. Groh, Jason, & Keys, 2008). A review of these studies showed that researchers often used cross-sectional or partially lagged methods to test mediation and the mediational effect of the social network was small in magnitude. Results suggest that the prospective association between sponsorship and abstinence is not explained by increases in the abstinence-based social network and demonstrate the need for future studies to use rigorous and time-lagged methods to test social support for abstinence as a mediator of the effects of 12-step involvement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).     

Predicting elections from the most important issue: A test of the take‐the‐best heuristic

We used the take‐the‐best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two‐party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross‐validation to calculate a total of 1000 out‐of‐sample forecasts, one for each of the last 100 days of the ten U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 2008. Ninety‐seven per cent of forecasts correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote. The model forecasts were competitive compared to forecasts from methods that incorporate substantially more information (e.g., econometric models and the Iowa Electronic Markets). The purpose of the model is to provide fast advice on which issues candidates should stress in their campaign. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Children’s Life Satisfaction: Developmental Trajectories and Environmental and Personality Predictors

Life satisfaction is a key indicator of children’s healthy development. Although the developmental changes of life satisfaction during adolescence have been investigated, the developmental trajectories of life satisfaction and related predictors during childhood remain unclear. Thus, the current study aimed to identify the developmental trajectories of life satisfaction covering the period from middle to late childhood as well as to examine the predictive roles of environmental factors (i.e., family dysfunction and basic psychological needs satisfaction at school), personality factors (i.e., neuroticism and extraversion), and their interactions in these developmental trajectories. An accelerated longitudinal design was used with Chinese elementary school students (N?=?1069, 45.8% girls, M _age?=?9.43, SD?=?0.95) of 3 cohorts (grade 3, grade 4, and grade 5) on 4 occasions at 6-month intervals. Growth mixture modeling analyses revealed three distinct trajectories of life satisfaction: “High-Stable” (88.8%), “High-Decreasing” (6.8%), and “Low-Increasing” (4.4%). Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that family dysfunction and neuroticism served as risk factors for adverse developmental trajectories of life satisfaction; whereas basic psychological needs satisfaction at school served as a protective factor. Furthermore, the interaction between family dysfunction and extraversion suggested that higher levels of extraversion buffered children against the negative effect of family dysfunction on the development of life satisfaction. The identification of three heterogeneous trajectory groups of children’s life satisfaction and key personality and environmental predictors associated with the trajectories suggests that specific interventions need to be tailored to the unique characteristics of the relevant trajectory groups.

     

When is the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure a test of location? Implications for effect-size measures

The Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney procedure is invariant under monotone transformations but its use as a test of location or shift is said not to be so. It tests location only under the shift model, the assumption of parallel cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). We show that infinitely many monotone transformations of the measured variable produce parallel cdfs, so long as the original cdfs intersect nowhere or everywhere. Thus there are infinitely many effect sizes measured as shifts of medians, invalidating the notion that there is one true shift parameter and thereby rendering any single estimate dubious. Measuring effect size using the probability of superiority alleviates this difficulty.     

Framing and Group Decision-Making: Do Cognitive Changes Parallel Preference Changes?

Subjects had their initial frames of reference concerning a decision problem (Asian Disease problem; Tversky & Kahneman, 1981, Science,211, 453–458) manipulated in order to compose four-person groups containing members with different frames of reference. Three different group compositions (number of members with "gain-oriented" vs "loss-oriented" frames) were used: three gain-oriented and one loss oriented (3–1), two gain-oriented and two loss-oriented (2–2), and one gain-oriented and three loss-oriented (1–3). Results indicated a postgroup discussion choice shift toward the risk alternative in the 2–2 and the 1–3 composition conditions. However, changes in members′ frames of reference were unrelated to preference changes. Group composition also affected group decision processes. Implications for future theory and research in small group decision-making are discussed.