Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.     

Psychodynamische Zusammenh?nge zwischen Psychose und Lebensgeschichte

Using two cases as examples it is shown how psychotic experiences and behaviour are psychodynamically associated with the biography of affected patients and can be beneficially used in therapy. Based on the historic pioneer work of Sigmund Freud who, with his psychoanalytical interpretation of Daniel Paul Schreber??s autobiography Memoirs of my nervous illness (Denkwürdigkeiten eines Nervenkranken) from 1903 shortly after his death 100 years ago, was the first to attempt to construct an association between Schreber??s delusional symptoms and his past history, this approach will be extensively discussed for patients with schizophrenia and similar psychoses. Particular attention is paid to trigger situations for the occurrence of psychotic conditions and the interpretation of certain delusional symptoms with respect to conflictual subjects from the past. In patients suffering from monopolar or bipolar affective disorders or psychoses, the symptoms are generally less exaggerated and extravagant than in schizophrenic psychoses. However, in such cases it can also be beneficial for the therapy in depressive or manic episodes to follow up the long-lasting conflicts which existed prior to the psychosis, where they either experience an escalation or describe an attempt to free themselves from previous pathogenic settings.     

When promoting a charity can hurt charitable giving: A metacognitive analysis

Charities need to come to mind to enter a potential donor's consideration set. However, feeling familiar with a charity and its cause can facilitate or impair giving. In most cases, perceived good memory for details of the cause fosters the impression of personal importance, which increases giving (Studies 1 and 3). But when the charity aims to increase awareness of a cause, good memory for the cause suggests that awareness is already high, which impairs giving (Studies 2 and 3). Hence, promotions for awareness-raising charities can actually have negative consequences, confirming the predictions of a metacognitive analysis.     

Lost in the crowd: Entitative group membership reduces mind attribution

This research examined how and why group membership diminishes the attribution of mind to individuals. We found that mind attribution was inversely related to the size of the group to which an individual belonged (Experiment 1). Mind attribution was affected by group membership rather than the total number of entities perceived at once (Experiment 2). Moreover, mind attribution to an individual varied with the perception that the individual was a group member. Participants attributed more mind to an individual that appeared distinct or distant from other group members than to an individual that was perceived to be similar or proximal to a cohesive group (Experiments 3 and 4). This effect occurred for both human and nonhuman targets, and was driven by the perception of the target as an entitative group member rather than by the knowledge that the target was an entitative group member (Experiment 5).     

(Re)assembling Natures,Cultures, and (Nano)technologies in Public Engagement

Abstract

Practices of ordering are powerful means of giving structure to people's lives and providing a sense of control. The analysis of three episodes from discussion groups on nanotechnology in Austria shows that citizens evaluate new technologies with regard to how they intersect with, support, or disturb existing orders. The concept of discursive assemblages serves as a lens for recognising the non-fixed character of the discursive process, while still allowing the analyst to identify how specific elements, such as conceptions of nature, culture, and technology, are (re)assembled at particular moments. Each of the three episodes represents a specific way of creating and negotiating assemblages: the first case demonstrates how discussants collectively discuss a nature–technology hybrid (nano-bamboo socks) against the backdrop of a highly valued ideal of keeping ‘the natural’ and ‘the technological’ separate; the second episode exemplifies a clash of two assemblages as participants argued for or against the application of nanotechnology in food products; and the third example illustrates the process of collective experimentation with different assemblages to make sense of a highly futuristic nanochip for brain enhancement. Together the episodes demonstrate that participants in public engagement settings do not address nanotechnology as a simple question of choice between acceptance and rejection but rather engage in processes of care regarding how a society might develop when technological innovations such as nanotechnology threaten to blur existing boundaries and orders, such as the distinction between nature and culture.     

Do Male Politicians Have Big Heads? Face-ism in Online Self-Representations of Politicians

Headshot portraits of all U.S. Governors, Senators, and Representatives and members of Parliament in Canada, Australia, and Norway are analyzed. In all countries, male politicians are represented with higher facial prominence than female politicians, paralleling a pervasive gender bias in media portraits. For American Congresswomen, high facial prominence is associated with a more pro-feminist voting record. Finally, anthropometric data show that gender differences in the facial prominence in portraits cannot be traced to gender differences in actual body proportions.     

Variations on a Montagovian theme

What are the objects of knowledge, belief, probability, apriority or analyticity? For at least some of these properties, it seems plausible that the objects are sentences, or sentence-like entities. However, results from mathematical logic indicate that sentential properties are subject to severe formal limitations. After surveying these results, I argue that they are more problematic than often assumed, that they can be avoided by taking the objects of the relevant property to be coarse-grained (“sets of worlds”) propositions, and that all this has little to do with the choice between operators and predicates.