All's well that ends well? Outcome bias in pilots during instrument flight rules

The objective of the present study was to examine if the Outcome Bias also occurs in pilots flying under instrument flight rules (IFR). In a scenario-based survey, 60 pilots evaluated weather-related decisions made by hypothetical pilots. Participants rated the decisions as better, less risky, and regarded the probability that they would have made the same decision as higher when they were followed by a positive outcome, than when they were followed by a negative outcome. This effect showed likewise for novice pilots and for experienced pilots. These findings could be relevant for the flight-related decision-making of pilots, which sometimes is affected by the decisions made by third-party pilots. In particular, decisions made by other pilots that have led to positive outcomes might be hastily followed, whereas those that have led to negative outcomes might be hastily rejected.     

Influencing prior knowledge through a short reading impacts curiosity and learning

Curiosity predicts memory performance and it is influenced by prior knowledge. Reading a well-organized text can increase curiosity in a classroom setting, however it is not clear if reading a short text written in an encyclopedic style can increase curiosity and learning without explicit educational goals. We presented participants with a short text and examined if questions related to this reading could elicit higher curiosity ratings and better recall in a thematized version of the trivia task. In the first experiment, participants subjectively judged their prior knowledge of trivia questions. The curiosity of the participants was not influenced by the reading, but the memory effect of curiosity was amplified for the questions related to it. In the second experiment, we objectively verified whether the participants knew the answers. The curiosity ratings were higher for the questions related to the reading, but only the curiosity ratings influenced recall performance. These results show that prior knowledge induced by reading can have an effect on curiosity and learning, but it depends on how this knowledge is assessed by the learner.     

Autobiographical memory impairment in chronic schizophrenia: Significance and clinical correlates

Previous studies of autobiographical memory (AM) in schizophrenia yielded a reduction of specificity, richness of details and conscious recollection, which indicate both, quantitative and qualitative AM changes. However, their associations with psychopathological symptoms and neuropsychological deficits were not resolved. Therefore, we sought to investigate AM with respect to psychopathology and neuropsychology in patients with chronic schizophrenia to rule out the influence of different courses of the disease. AM of four lifetime periods was examined in 75 patients and 50 healthy controls by using a semi-structured interview. The recalled episodes were rated for memory specificity. Subsequently, one single event of each period of life was rated for details and experiential aspects of reliving (originality, vividness/visual imagery, emotional re-experiencing and emotional valence). When contrasted with healthy controls, patients recalled a significantly reduced number of episodes and personal semantic facts; moreover, memory specificity of AM was significantly lower in patients than controls. While the richness of details calculated for single events showed only minor, non-significant group differences, vividness and emotional re-experiencing were significantly less pronounced in the patient group. Along with this, AM performance correlated significantly with negative symptoms including apathy as well as verbal memory and executive functions. Our results underline the significance of overgenerality as a key feature of AM in schizophrenia as well as a dissociation between intact number of details of single events and reduced vividness and emotional re-experiencing. The extent of negative symptoms including apathy and impairments of verbal memory/executive functions may explain AM deficits in chronic schizophrenia.     

Factor analysis by generalized least squares

Aitken's generalized least squares (GLS) principle, with the inverse of the observed variance-covariance matrix as a weight matrix, is applied to estimate the factor analysis model in the exploratory (unrestricted) case. It is shown that the GLS estimates are seale free and asymptotically efficient. The estimates are computed by a rapidly converging Newton-Raphson procedure. A new technique is used to deal with Heywood cases effectively.The work on this project was done when the first author was Research Statistician at Educational Testing Service, Princeton, N. J. The second author was in part supported by a grant from the Research Committee of the University of Wisconsin Graduate School. The authors wish to thank Michael Browne for many helpful comments and Marielle van Thillo for valuable assistance in the numerical computations.     

An individual difference model for the multidimensional analysis of preference data

A model for the analysis of paired comparison data is presented which combines features of the BTL-model with features of the Unfolding model. The model is metric, mathematically tractable, and has an exact algebraic solution. Since it is multidimensional and allows for individual differences, it is thought to be more realistic for some choice situations than either the Thurstone model or the BTL-model. No claim is made that the present model will be appropriate for all conceivable choice situations. Rather, it is argued that the fact that it is explicitly falsifiable is a point in its favor.This work was supported by a grant of the United States Public Health Service (1 R03 MH19139 01 MSM) and a David Ross (XR) grant of the Purdue Research Foundation (PRF 2132), both of which are gratefully acknowledged. We also owe thanks to Dr. Terry Cooper, whose careful scrutiny of an earlier draft of this paper allowed us to reduce the number of errors from n to n-1.     

Some new results on factor indeterminacy

Some relations between maximum likelihood factor analysis and factor indeterminacy are discussed. Bounds are derived for the minimum average correlation between equivalent sets of correlated factors which depend on the latent roots of the factor intercorrelation matrix . Empirical examples are presented to illustrate some of the theory and indicate the extent to which it can be expected to be relevant in practice.     

Negation of Park's transformations

Zusammenfassung Parks Kritik beruht, meiner Ansicht nach, auf einem entscheidenden Mißverständnis meiner Intentionen: es geht mir überhaupt nicht um eine Argumentation gegen eine Transformationsgrammatik à la Chomsky, und nicht einmal in erster Linie gegen die Absicht mancher Psycholinguisten, eine derartige Theorie in ihren psychischen Funktionen aufzuzeigen. Ich möchte lediglich dafür plädieren, daß die Psycholinguistik in erster Linie psychologische (und nicht linguistische) Überlegungen und Modellvorstellungen als Leitlinien verwendet.     

ON THE SIGN OF SLOPE IN THE LEARNING OF LINEAR FUNCTIONS

Three groups of subjects were presented with pairs of values ( E and S ) of three different linear functions E = a+bS. In a test phase they had to indicate the E -values that corresponded to the S -values. The values were represented as distances marked on straight lines. Two groups, one a control group, had a positive slope, the third group a negative. The squared sum of the S-E differences was kept constant. All groups had roughly the same performance as measured by the squared sum of deviations from empirical and correct E -values. The learning curves indicated, however, that some learning had taken place in the group with the negative slope. It was concluded that a principle rather than a function was learned.     

A general approach to confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis

We describe a general procedure by which any number of parameters of the factor analytic model can be held fixed at any values and the remaining free parameters estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The generality of the approach makes it possible to deal with all kinds of solutions: orthogonal, oblique and various mixtures of these. By choosing the fixed parameters appropriately, factors can be defined to have desired properties and make subsequent rotation unnecessary. The goodness of fit of the maximum likelihood solution under the hypothesis represented by the fixed parameters is tested by a large samplex ² test based on the likelihood ratio technique. A by-product of the procedure is an estimate of the variance-covariance matrix of the estimated parameters. From this, approximate confidence intervals for the parameters can be obtained. Several examples illustrating the usefulness of the procedure are given.This work was supported by a grant (NSF-GB 1985) from the National Science Foundation to Educational Testing Service.