The relationship between anomalistic belief,misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy

Abstract

A poor understanding of probability may lead people to misinterpret every day coincidences and form anomalistic (e.g., paranormal) beliefs. We investigated the relationship between anomalistic belief (including type of belief) and misperception of chance and the base rate fallacy across both anomalistic and control (i.e., neutral) contexts. Greater anomalistic belief was associated with poorer performance for both types of items; however there were no significant interactions between belief and context. For misperception of chance items, only experiential (vs. theoretical) anomalistic beliefs predicted more errors. In contrast, overall anomalistic belief was positively related to the base rate fallacy but no specific subtype of anomalistic belief was a significant predictor. The results indicate misperception of chance may lead people to interpret coincidental events as having an anomalistic cause, and a poor understanding of base rates may make people more prone to forming anomalistic beliefs.     

A meta-analysis of the criterion-related validity of prehire work experience

Organizations frequently screen or select job applicants based on their work experience. Despite this, surprisingly little is known about the criterion-related validity of prehire experience, which reflects the amount, duration, or type of experience workers have acquired before they enter a new organization. To address this critical gap in the literature, we used meta-analysis to synthesize data from 81 independent samples that reported relations between prehire experience and performance or turnover. Results revealed overall corrected correlations of .06 for job performance (k = 44, n = 11,785), .11 for training performance (k = 21, n = 8,176), and .00 for turnover (k = 32, n = 11,676). Measures that capture prehire experience with tasks, jobs, or occupations relevant to workers’ current position also are only weakly related to the outcomes (e.g.,  = .07 for job performance). Two exceptions to our main findings are that (a) prehire experience is somewhat more predictive of job performance when workers first start a new job and (b) measures of task-level experience predict training performance, although these results are based on small subsets of primary studies. Overall, the present findings suggest that the types of prehire experience measures organizations currently use to screen job applicants generally are poor predictors of future performance and turnover. We therefore caution organizations from selecting employees based on such measures unless more positive evidence emerges.     

Response distributions for a generalized urn scheme under noncontingent reinforcement

The classical urn scheme is further extended to permit application to simple learning situations with arbitrary response and reinforcement spaces. The assumptions incorporated are those which, in the classical situation, are equivalent to (1) permitting the total number of balls added per trial to depend on the preceding reinforcement and (2) allowing the probability that a ball is drawn to depend on the time the ball has been in the urn. This results in a flexible family of models whose behavior is analyzed in the case of noncontingent reinforcement.