Dual processes in reasoning?

Previous results have shown that the introduction of negatives into the sentences used in a deductive problem affected behavior in a systematic way which was independent of the logical structure of the problem. In the present investigation, the subjects were asked to justify their responses when reasoning about such sentences. In accordance with previous results, the responses were dominated by the terms in the sentences regardless of whether they were negated. However, the justifications did vary when negatives were introduced in accordance with the logical consequences of the responses. The interpretation of these justifications as causes of behavior seemed implausible. It was suggested that they were rationalizations, or that there was at least some form of dual processing between behavior and conscious thought.     

MATCHING BIAS IN THE SELECTION TASK

A previous study (Evans, 1972) found that subjects tend to match rather than alter named values when constructing verifying and falsifying cases of conditional rules. It was suggested that this tendency (‘matching bias’) might account for the responses normally observed in Wason's (1968, 1969) ‘selection task’. This suggestion was tested by giving subjects the selection task with conditional rules in which the presence and absence of negative components was systematically varied, to see whether subjects consistently attempted to verify the rules (Wason's theory) or whether they continued to choose the matching values despite the presence of negatives, which would reverse the logical meaning of such selections. Significant matching tendencies were observed on four independent measures, and the overall pattern, with matching bias cancelled out, gave no evidence for a verification bias, indicating instead that the logically correct values were most frequently chosen.     

Operationalizing relational turbulence theory: Measurement and construct validation

This study assessed measures operationalizing concepts in relational turbulence theory (Solomon, Knobloch, Theiss, & McLaren, 2016). Studies of relational turbulence in marriage have used measures developed in research on dating couples; therefore, one goal was evaluating these variables in a general population sample of married individuals (N = 1,469). A second goal addressed problems in measures of relational uncertainty by assessing alternative scales. Third, associations between relational turbulence theory variables and measures of cognitive, emotional, and communicative phenomena were estimated. Fourth, the distinctiveness of relational turbulence measures relative to measures of other relational qualities was assessed. The conclusions advance new, Likert relational uncertainty scales and highlight the validity of relational turbulence constructs as distinctive predictors of cognitions, emotions, and communication.     

Inventor perseverance after being told to quit: the role of cognitive biases

We find that approximately one third (29%) of independent inventors continue to spend money and 51% continue to spend time on projects after receiving highly diagnostic advice to cease effort. Using survey data from actual inventors, this paper studies the role of overconfidence, optimism, and the sunk‐cost bias in these decisions. We find that inventors are more overconfident and optimistic than the general population. We also find that optimism and past expenditures increased perseverance after being told to quit, while overconfidence in judgment ability had no effect. After being told to quit, optimists spend 166% more than pessimists and those having already spent, for example, $10 000 spend another $10 000. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calibration accuracy of a judgmental process that predicts the commercial success of new product ideas

We examine the accuracy of forecasts of the commercial potential of new product ideas by experts at an Inventor's Assistance Program (IAP). Each idea is evaluated in terms of 37 attributes or cues, which are subjectively rated and intuitively combined by an IAP expert to arrive at a forecast of the idea's commercialization prospects. Data regarding actual commercialization outcomes for 559 new product ideas were collected to examine the accuracy of the IAP forecasts. The intensive evaluation of each idea conducted by the IAP produces forecasts that accurately rank order the ideas in terms of their probability of commercialization. The focus of the evaluation process on case‐specific evidence that distinguishes one idea from another, however, and the corresponding neglect of aggregate considerations such as the base rate (BR) and predictability of commercialization for new product ideas in general, yields forecasts that are systematically miscalibrated in terms of their correspondence to the actual probability of commercialization. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined eyetracking and keystroke-logging methods for studying cognitive processes in text production

Writers typically spend a certain proportion of time looking back over the text that they have written. This is likely to serve a number of different functions, which are currently poorly understood. In this article, we present two systems, ScriptLog+TimeLine and EyeWrite, that adopt different and complementary approaches to exploring this activity by collecting and analyzing combined eye movement and keystroke data from writers composing extended texts. ScriptLog+TimeLine is a system that is based on an existing keystroke-logging program and uses heuristic, pattern-matching methods to identify reading episodes within eye movement data. EyeWrite is an integrated editor and analysis system that permits identification of the words that the writer fixates and their location within the developing text. We demonstrate how the methods instantiated within these systems can be used to make sense of the large amount of data generated by eyetracking and keystroke logging in order to inform understanding of the cognitive processes that underlie written text production.     

STATE OF SCIENCE IN INDUSTRIAL AND ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY: A REVIEW OF SELF-REPORTED LIMITATIONS

This study investigated self-reported limitations of published papers as an alternative and novel operationalization of the state of science of industrial and organizational (I-O) psychology. A content analysis was conducted of the reported limitations in every I-O psychology articles published in the Academy of Management Journal, the Journal of Applied Psychology, and Personnel Psychology between 1995 and 2008 (N= 2,402). Articles were coded for the number and types of limitations reported, characteristics of the research design, and topic area. Threats to internal validity were the most often reported limitations. In addition, variations were detected in the reporting of limitations over time, indicating a subtle but steady shift in the focus of I-O psychology research. Implications of these results for the science and practice of I-O psychology and for the use of self-reported limitations in scientific communication are discussed.