MODERATOR RESEARCH AND THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS1

The thesis of this paper is that many proposed moderators in personnel psychology are probably illusory, having been created solely by belief in the law of small numbers. Evidence is presented that race as a moderator of test validity is one such illusory moderator. In addition, a model for validity generalization is described which, in addition to eliminating the need for criterion-related validity studies under certain circumstances, strongly calls into question the idea that situations moderate test validity, i.e., the traditional doctrine of situational specificity of test validities. Calculations are presented which show that adequate statistical power in moderator research requires much larger sample sizes than have typically been employed. This requirement is illustrated empirically using validity data for the Army Classification Battery for 35 jobs and 21,000 individuals. These analyses show that (1) even when a moderator is generally assumed to be large, large samples are required to gauge its effect reliably and (2) large sample research may show that moderators that appear plausible and important a priori are nonexistent or trivial in magnitude. The practice of pooling across numerous small sample studies to obtain statistical power equivalent to that of large sample studies is recommended. In light of the evidence that many proposed moderators may not exist, the authors hypothesize that the true structure of underlying relationships in personnel psychology is considerably simpler than personnel psychologists have generally imagined it to be.     

THE PRACTICAL INTELLIGENCE OF ENTREPRENEURS: ANTECEDENTS AND A LINK WITH NEW VENTURE GROWTH

We draw upon cognitive psychology and social cognition theories to develop a model of practical intelligence, its antecedents, and its role in the early growth phase of entrepreneurship. The model was tested through interviews with 22 printing industry CEOs and responses from 283 founders of early‐stage printing and graphics businesses. Related venture and industry experience and 2 learning orientations interacted to predict practical intelligence. In turn, practical intelligence interacted with growth goals to predict higher venture growth across 4 years.     

Women's Postrape Sexual Functioning: Review and Implications for Counseling

The authors present a literature review concerning the effects of rape on sexual functioning and suggestions for facilitating sexual recovery of rape survivors in counseling.     

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF JOB SELECTION METHODS ON SIZE, PRODUCTIVITY, AND PAYROLL COSTS OF THE FEDERAL WORK FORCE: AN EMPIRICALLY BASED DEMONSTRATION

In this study, job performance increases resulting from improved selection validity were measured empirically rather than estimated from the standard linear regression utility equations. Selection utility analyses based on these empirical measurements were carried out for most white-collar jobs in the federal government. Results indicate that selection of a one-year cohort based on valid measures of cognitive ability, rather than on non-test procedures (mostly evaluations of education and experience), produces increases in output worth up to $600 million for each year that the new employees remain employed by the government. Newly hired federal employees remain with the government an average of approximately 13 years, resulting in a total gain in output of almost $8 billion over this period. This gain represents a 9.7% increase in output among new hires. If total output is held constant rather than increased, new hiring can be reduced by up to 20,044 per year (a 9% decrease), resulting in payroll savings of $272 million for every year the new cohort of employees remains on the job. The percentage of new hires in the bottom decile of the non-test-selected job performance distribution