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121.
Ern Tgls Alexandra Ibanez‐Lillo Albert Costa Luca L. Bonatti 《Developmental science》2015,18(2):183-193
Recent research shows that preverbal infants can reason about single‐case probabilities without relying on observed frequencies, adapting their predictions to relevant dynamic parameters of the situation (Téglás, Vul, Girotto, Gonzalez, Tenenbaum & Bonatti, 2011 ; Téglás, Girotto, Gonzalez & Bonatti, 2007 ). Here we show that intuitions of probabilities may derive from the ability to represent a limited number of possibilities. After watching a scene containing moving objects of two ensembles, 12‐month‐olds looked longer at an unlikely than at a likely single‐case outcome when the objects were within the parallel individuation range. However, they did not do so when the scene contained the same ratio between ensembles but a larger number of objects. At the same time, they could form rational expectations about single‐case outcomes in scenes containing the same large number of objects when they could exploit subtle physical parameters induced by the objects’ movements and their spatial configuration. Our findings demonstrate that at early stages of development the mental representations involved in probability estimations of future individual situations are powerful and sophisticated, but at the same time they depend on infants’ overall cognitive architecture, being constrained by the numerical representations spontaneously induced by the situations. 相似文献
122.
123.
In the process of fitting a probabilistic knowledge structure to data, standard goodness-of-fit statistics only partially describe the correctness of the fitted model. Irrespectively of how good the fit is, a too-high value of the error rates (careless error and lucky guess probabilities) might be a symptom of a misspecification of the model. In this situation, it could be critical to interpret those values as error rates. A more reasonable solution would be to hypothesize that some modifications have to be introduced in the model. In this paper, we show that in specific cases, these modifications yield basic local independence model parameterizations that are not identifiable. The applicative consequences of the theoretical results are displayed by means of an example carried out on a set of clinical data collected through the Maudsley Obsessional-Compulsive Questionnaire. 相似文献
124.
Luca Tranchini 《Studia Logica》2012,100(3):631-648
We present a natural deduction system for dual-intuitionistic logic. Its distinctive feature is that it is a single-premise multiple-conclusions system. Its relationships with the natural deduction systems for intuitionistic and classical logic are discussed. 相似文献
125.
Luca Moretti 《Synthese》2012,184(3):217-234
Crispin Wright has given an explanation of how a first time warrant can fall short of transmitting across a known entailment.
Formal epistemologists have struggled to turn Wright’s informal explanation into cogent Bayesian reasoning. In this paper,
I analyse two Bayesian models of Wright’s account respectively proposed by Samir Okasha and Jake Chandler. I argue that both
formalizations are unsatisfactory for different reasons, and I lay down a third Bayesian model that appears to me to capture
the valid kernel of Wright’s explanation. After this, I consider a recent development in Wright’s account of transmission
failure. Wright suggests that his condition sufficient for transmission failure of first time warrant also suffices for transmission
failure of supplementary warrant. I propose an interpretation of Wright’s suggestion that shields it from objections. I then
lay down a fourth Bayesian framework that provides a simplified model of the unified explanation of transmission failure envisaged
by Wright. 相似文献
126.
The Gain-Loss model is a probabilistic skill multimap model for assessing learning processes. In practical applications, more than one skill multimap could be plausible, while none corresponds to the true one. The article investigates whether constraining the error probabilities is a way of uncovering the best skill assignment among a number of alternatives. A simulation study shows that this approach allows the detection of the models that are closest to the correct one. An empirical application shows that it allows the detection of models that are entirely derived from plausible assumptions about the skills required for solving the problems. 相似文献
127.
Luca Tranchini 《Topoi》2012,31(1):47-57
Validity, the central concept of the so-called ‘proof-theoretic semantics’ is described as correctly applying to the arguments
that denote proofs. In terms of validity, I propose an anti-realist characterization of the notions of truth and correct assertion,
at the core of which is the idea that valid arguments may fail to be recognized as such. The proposed account is compared
with Dummett’s and Prawitz’s views on the matter. 相似文献
128.
MacLean EL Matthews LJ Hare BA Nunn CL Anderson RC Aureli F Brannon EM Call J Drea CM Emery NJ Haun DB Herrmann E Jacobs LF Platt ML Rosati AG Sandel AA Schroepfer KK Seed AM Tan J van Schaik CP Wobber V 《Animal cognition》2012,15(2):223-238
Now more than ever animal studies have the potential to test hypotheses regarding how cognition evolves. Comparative psychologists have developed new techniques to probe the cognitive mechanisms underlying animal behavior, and they have become increasingly skillful at adapting methodologies to test multiple species. Meanwhile, evolutionary biologists have generated quantitative approaches to investigate the phylogenetic distribution and function of phenotypic traits, including cognition. In particular, phylogenetic methods can quantitatively (1) test whether specific cognitive abilities are correlated with life history (e.g., lifespan), morphology (e.g., brain size), or socio-ecological variables (e.g., social system), (2) measure how strongly phylogenetic relatedness predicts the distribution of cognitive skills across species, and (3) estimate the ancestral state of a given cognitive trait using measures of cognitive performance from extant species. Phylogenetic methods can also be used to guide the selection of species comparisons that offer the strongest tests of a priori predictions of cognitive evolutionary hypotheses (i.e., phylogenetic targeting). Here, we explain how an integration of comparative psychology and evolutionary biology will answer a host of questions regarding the phylogenetic distribution and history of cognitive traits, as well as the evolutionary processes that drove their evolution. 相似文献
129.
130.
McGeown WJ Venneri A Kirsch I Nocetti L Roberts K Foan L Mazzoni G 《Consciousness and cognition》2012,21(1):100-116
This functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) study investigated high and low suggestible people responding to two visual hallucination suggestions with and without a hypnotic induction. Participants in the study were asked to see color while looking at a grey image, and to see shades of grey while looking at a color image. High suggestible participants reported successful alterations in color perception in both tasks, both in and out of hypnosis, and showed a small benefit if hypnosis was induced. Low suggestible people could not perform the tasks successfully with or without the hypnotic induction. The fMRI results supported the self report data, and changes in brain activity were found in a number of visual areas. The results indicate that a hypnotic induction, although having the potential to enhance the ability of high suggestible people, is not necessary for the effective alteration of color perception by suggestion. 相似文献